AZ Picerno v Cosenza prediction · Serie C

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 22:08

AZ Picerno 1–2 Cosenza AZ PICERNO WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said AZ Picerno win~~49%

~~The market said~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.862

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.879

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 29 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said AZ Picerno win at 49%.
1′Much as we predicted: AZ Picerno was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 50–25–26
1′KICK-OFF AZ Picerno v Cosenza
6′Much as we predicted: AZ Picerno was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 49–26–26
26′⚽ GOAL · 26' AZ Picerno 1–0 Cosenza
27′⚽ GOAL · 27' AZ Picerno 1–0 Cosenza
38′⚽ GOAL · 38' AZ Picerno 1–1 Cosenza · P. Virgilio
38′⚽ GOAL · 39' AZ Picerno 1–1 Cosenza
45′SECOND HALF AZ Picerno 1–1 Cosenza
48′⚽ GOAL · 48' AZ Picerno 1–1 Cosenza · P. Virgilio
48′⚽ GOAL · 49' AZ Picerno 1–1 Cosenza
49′⚽ GOAL · 27' AZ Picerno 1–1 Cosenza · P. Virgilio (assist D. Del Fabro)
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' AZ Picerno 1–1 Cosenza
49′🟨 YELLOW · 50' AZ Picerno
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' AZ Picerno 1–2 Cosenza · S. Achour
55′⚽ GOAL · 56' AZ Picerno 1–2 Cosenza
59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' AZ Picerno · On: S. Maselli · Off: D. Franco
59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' AZ Picerno · On: F. Rillo · Off: A. Bassoli
59′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Cosenza
64′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Cosenza · On: A. Energe · Off: N. Contiliano
64′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Cosenza · On: B. Cimino · Off: F. Palazzino
72′SUBSTITUTION · 69' AZ Picerno · On: G. Coppola · Off: M. Scravaglieri
72′SUBSTITUTION · 69' AZ Picerno · On: E. Esposito · Off: M. Kanoute Corrected
73′🟨 YELLOW · 74' AZ Picerno
74′🟨 YELLOW · 74' G. Coppola · AZ Picerno
76′⚽ GOAL · 76' AZ Picerno 2–2 Cosenza · E. McJannet
76′⚽ GOAL · 78' AZ Picerno 2–2 Cosenza
87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Cosenza · On: A. Ndow · Off: S. Achour
87′🟨 YELLOW · 88' AZ Picerno
88′🟨 YELLOW · 88' E. Esposito · AZ Picerno
89′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Cosenza
FTFULL TIME AZ Picerno 1–2 Cosenza
FTAZ Picerno 1–2 Cosenza · AZ Picerno win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 19:13 · locked at kick-off

AZ Picerno win49%

Draw26%

Cosenza win25%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 19:30

VenueStadio Comunale Donato Curcio

RefereeA. Mazzer

Line-ups

AZ Picerno

Cosenza

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

AZ Picerno

Cosenza

8Days since last match8

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	AZ Picerno	8	+1	12
20	Cosenza	8	−13	2

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

AZ Picerno

Formation not confirmed

33 R. Marcone

4 G. Bellodi

29 D. Del Fabro

26 A. Bassoli

30 A. Gemignani

8 P. Virgilio

44 D. Franco

92 M. Scravaglieri

16 S. Bianchi

90 L. Abreu

7 M. Kanoute

Coach · Claudio De Luca

Substitutes

22 · S. Cortese

12 · F. Pecci

23 · F. Rillo

19 · F. Pistolesi

2 · M. Perri

15 · R. Tolovan

10 · P. Maiorino

17 · L. Nocerino

21 · S. Maselli

99 · S. Pugliese

11 · E. Esposito

70 · A. Oliviero

72 · G. Coppola

14 · D. Egharevba

Cosenza

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Rizzo

4 R. Pascalau

33 A. Dalmazzi

26 P. Dametto

67 G. Clemente

23 R. Palmieri

7 E. McJannet

5 N. Contiliano

11 M. Almaviva

29 F. Palazzino

9 S. Achour

Coach · Federico Coppitelli

Substitutes

12 · V. Iliev

22 · C. Rantuccio

66 · B. Cimino

47 · A. Barone

13 · A. Cogoni

24 · O. Dzepar

15 · A. D'Alena

14 · D. Quieto

21 · D. Ragone

41 · E. Contiero

3 · E. Giannini

6 · A. Ndow

17 · T. Petrovic

77 · A. Pozzi

10 · A. Energe

Our number · az picerno winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 12 Oct 19:13 · locked at kick-off

49% The market47%

Us49%

~~Market~~47%

We make AZ Picerno a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.7–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · az picerno win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 53% to 48% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
AZ Picerno win	49%	47%	+2
Draw	26%	29%	−3
Cosenza win	25%	24%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	52%	47%	+5
Both teams to score	54%	51%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	76%	71%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	30%	27%	+3
AZ Picerno or draw	75%	76%	−1
AZ Picerno clean sheet	33%	–	–
Cosenza clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.1%

0123450 7.4 6.5 4.0 1 9.7 12.1 6.3 2.4 2 8.4 9.2 5.1 3 4.7 5.1 2.8 4 2.0 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+AZ Picerno down, Cosenza across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,964 Serie C - Girone C matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie C - Girone C matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.3% of games this season, across 86 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

AZ Picerno at home: 2.33 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Cosenza away: 0.83 scored, 2.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.65 goals for AZ Picerno, 1.12 for Cosenza. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~AZP 3–1 COS · COS 1–0 AZP

Form · last six in Serie C - Girone C

AZ PICERNO

WLLLWL4–1 · 0–1 · 2–4 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 2–4

COSENZA

LDLDLL0–4 · 0–0 · 2–5 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Potenza	9	+12	22
2	Bari	9	+7	19
3	Sorrento	9	+4	18
4	Catania	9	+7	16
5	Casertana	9	+2	15
6	Audace Cerignola	9	+5	14
7	Scafatese	8	+2	13
8	Salernitana	9	+2	13
9	AZ Picerno	8	+1	12
10	SS Monopoli	9	0	12
11	Cavese	8	0	11
12	Foggia	9	−1	11
13	Casarano	9	−3	11
14	Inter U23	7	−1	10
15	Savoia	9	−1	10
16	Team Altamura	9	−9	8
17	Barletta	8	−3	7
18	Giugliano	8	−6	7
19	Crotone	9	−5	6
20	Cosenza	8	−13	2