Audace Cerignola v Savoia prediction · Serie C

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04

Audace Cerignola 4–0 Savoia AUDACE CERIGNOLA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Audace Cerignola win~~51%

~~The market said~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.359

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.358

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Audace Cerignola win at 51%.
1′KICK-OFF Audace Cerignola v Savoia
2′Audace Cerignola find the net on 1′. 1–0. 1–0 · 77–14–9
2′We said Audace Cerignola at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 77%. 1–0 · 77–14–9
2′⚽ GOAL · 1' Audace Cerignola 1–0 Savoia
2′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 2' Audace Cerignola win: 51% at kick-off, 77% now
9′🟨 YELLOW · 8' Savoia
17′We said Audace Cerignola at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 92%. 2–0 · 92–6–2
17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Audace Cerignola 2–0 Savoia
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Audace Cerignola win: 51% at kick-off, 92% now
18′A goal for Audace Cerignola on 18′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 92–6–2
22′We said Audace Cerignola at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 3–0 · 98–1–0
22′⚽ GOAL · 22' Audace Cerignola 3–0 Savoia
23′Audace Cerignola score on 22′ to make it 3–0. 3–0 · 98–1–0
30′3 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 99–1–0
37′🟨 YELLOW · 37' Audace Cerignola
45′SECOND HALF Audace Cerignola 3–0 Savoia
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Savoia · On: P. Yeboah · Off: A. Nepi
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Audace Cerignola · On: A. Kurti · Off: A. Gasbarro
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Savoia · On: P. Riccardi · Off: V. Alfieri
50′HALF-TIME Audace Cerignola 3–0 Savoia
55′We said Audace Cerignola at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
60′PENALTY MISSED · 59' F. Meola · Savoia
63′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Savoia
72′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Audace Cerignola · On: M. Pinotti · Off: G. Volpe
74′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Savoia · On: A. Fiasco · Off: A. Zoboletti
79′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Audace Cerignola · On: O. Moreso · Off: M. Sellaf
79′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Audace Cerignola · On: K. Miranda · Off: A. Silvestro
83′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Savoia · On: M. Polizzi · Off: F. Meola
88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Savoia · On: A. Gemello · Off: F. Scotti
90′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 4–0 · 100–0–0
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Audace Cerignola 4–0 Savoia
90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Audace Cerignola · On: M. Nanula · Off: L. D'Orazio
91′Audace Cerignola find the net on 90′. 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
95′4–0 at the end. Our 51% on Audace Cerignola comes in. 4–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Audace Cerignola 4–0 Savoia
FTAudace Cerignola 4–0 Savoia · Audace Cerignola win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Audace Cerignola are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Audace Cerignola 51%, draw 26%, Savoia 23%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Audace Cerignola v SavoiaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Audace Cerignola win51%

Draw26%

Savoia win23%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:30

RoundGirone C · matchday 10

VenueStadio Domenico Monterisi

RefereeD. Galiffi

Line-ups

Audace Cerignola

Savoia

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Audace Cerignola

Savoia

8Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · Serie C - Girone C

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Audace Cerignola	9	+5	14
15	Savoia	9	−1	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Audace Cerignola

Formation not confirmed

22 A. Viola

55 M. Cocorocchio

23 A. Gasbarro

24 A. Romano

37 A. Silvestro

68 M. Sellaf

58 C. Cretella

11 G. Volpe

4 G. Vitale

10 L. D'Orazio

14 C. Padula

Coach · Raimondo Catalano

Substitutes

1 · A. Vailati

44 · K. Miranda

2 · A. Kurti

3 · F. Sena

99 · C. Parlato

8 · O. Moreso

18 · C. Guaragna

80 · G. Seminari

19 · A. Iorio

17 · F. Amiranda

9 · D. Gambale

77 · M. Pinotti

20 · M. Nanula

21 · M. Casarosa

Savoia

Formation not confirmed

22 M. Leonardo

33 F. D'Amore

26 M. Noce

30 C. Fabriani

15 A. Zoboletti

14 G. Tumbarello

6 V. Alfieri

18 A. Martina

8 F. Meola

90 A. Nepi

9 F. Scotti

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · K. Bethers

12 · P. Albanese

35 · D. Portanova

11 · P. Riccardi

4 · G. Patrignani

85 · I. Kalynovych

77 · L. Ferrara

45 · P. Yeboah

28 · A. Gemello

17 · M. Polizzi

21 · A. Fiasco

Our number · audace cerignola winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 15 Oct 04:49 · locked at kick-off

51% The market51%

Us51%

~~Market~~51%

We make Audace Cerignola a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.7–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Audace Cerignola v Savoia~~1.68 – 1.05

~~Form · last six in Serie C - Girone C this season · since 11 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W1 D4 L1

~~Table places · points 14 v 10~~7 v 15

~~The market · Audace Cerignola win~~51% · ours 51%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Audace Cerignola win The market, margin stripped

Published at 52%, 51% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Audace Cerignola win	51%	51%	0
Draw	26%	26%	0
Savoia win	23%	23%	0
Over 2.5 goals	51%	53%	−2
Both teams to score	53%	55%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	76%	76%	0
Over 3.5 goals	29%	33%	−4
Audace Cerignola or draw	77%	77%	0
Audace Cerignola clean sheet	35%	–	–
Savoia clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 7.6 6.3 3.7 1 10.3 12.0 5.9 2.1 2 9.1 9.3 4.9 3 5.1 5.3 2.8 4 2.2 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Audace Cerignola down, Savoia across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,970 Serie C - Girone C matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie C - Girone C matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.3% of games this season, across 92 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2024/25.

Home and away form

Audace Cerignola at home: 1.50 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Savoia away: 1.20 scored, 1.40 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

1.68 goals for Audace Cerignola, 1.05 for Savoia. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2024/25

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2024/25.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie C - Girone C this season · since 11 Sept

AUDACE CERIGNOLA

WLDLDW4–0 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 3–2

SAVOIA

DDDLDW1–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 2–4 · 0–0 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Potenza	10	+13	25
2	Bari	9	+7	19
3	Sorrento	9	+4	18
4	Catania	10	+6	16
5	Casertana	9	+2	15
6	SS Monopoli	10	+2	15
7	Audace Cerignola	9	+5	14
8	Scafatese	9	+2	14
9	Salernitana	10	+2	14
10	Inter U23	9	+1	13
11	AZ Picerno	9	0	12
12	Cavese	9	0	12
13	Foggia	9	−1	11
14	Casarano	9	−3	11
15	Savoia	9	−1	10
16	Barletta	9	−3	8
17	Team Altamura	9	−9	8
18	Giugliano	9	−10	7
19	Cosenza	9	−12	5
20	Crotone	9	−5	0