Vis Pesaro v Ravenna prediction · Serie C

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 19:17

Vis Pesaro 0–4 Ravenna RAVENNA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ravenna win~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.474

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 31 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ravenna win at 44%.
1′Much as we predicted: Ravenna was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 26–31–44
1′KICK-OFF Vis Pesaro v Ravenna
7′We published Ravenna at 44%. Our model now makes it 75%. 0–1 · 9–17–75
7′⚽ GOAL · 7' Vis Pesaro 0–1 Ravenna
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 7' Ravenna win: 44% at kick-off, 75% now
8′Ravenna score on 8′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 9–17–75
9′We published Ravenna at 44%. Our model now makes it 91%. 0–2 · 2–6–91
9′⚽ GOAL · 9' Vis Pesaro 0–2 Ravenna
9′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 9' Ravenna win: 44% at kick-off, 91% now
11′Ravenna find the net on 10′. 0–2. 0–2 · 2–6–92
12′🟨 YELLOW · 12' Vis Pesaro
15′🟨 YELLOW · 15' Ravenna
19′🟨 YELLOW · 19' Vis Pesaro
26′We published Ravenna at 44%. Our model now makes it 99%. 0–3 · 0–1–99
26′⚽ GOAL · 26' Vis Pesaro 0–3 Ravenna
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Ravenna win: 44% at kick-off, 99% now
28′A goal for Ravenna on 27′ — 0–3. 0–3 · 0–1–99
30′M. Maggio scores for Ravenna on 29′ — 0–3. 0–3 · 0–1–99
30′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.2 across ninety minutes. 0–3 · 0–1–99
32′SUBSTITUTION · 30' Vis Pesaro · On: F. Pompilio · Off: S. Ebano
33′We published Ravenna at 44%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–4 · 0–0–100
33′⚽ GOAL · 33' Vis Pesaro 0–4 Ravenna
34′4 goals already, more than the 2.2 we expected for the whole match. 0–4 · 0–0–100
35′GOAL DISALLOWED · 35' Ravenna
43′🟨 YELLOW · 42' Vis Pesaro
45′SECOND HALF Vis Pesaro 0–3 Ravenna
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Vis Pesaro · On: N. Berengo · Off: C. Nina
47′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Vis Pesaro
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Vis Pesaro · On: N. Lari · Off: G. Gambino
48′HALF-TIME Vis Pesaro 0–3 Ravenna
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Ravenna · On: A. Bianconi · Off: G. Donati
59′🟨 YELLOW · 58' Vis Pesaro
63′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Vis Pesaro · On: G. Bailo · Off: N. Conti
66′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Ravenna · On: D. Casiraghi · Off: M. Orellana
66′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Ravenna · On: J. Tenkorang · Off: Vinicius
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Ravenna · On: E. Soleri · Off: S. Rabbi
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Vis Pesaro 0–4 Ravenna
71′Ravenna score on 70′ to make it 0–4. 0–4 · 0–0–100
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Ravenna · On: C. Spini · Off: M. Maggio
81′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Vis Pesaro · On: R. Giovannini · Off: F. Nicastro
81′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Vis Pesaro
87′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Ravenna
92′Full time, 0–4. We called Ravenna at 44% — that one lands. 0–4 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Vis Pesaro 0–4 Ravenna
FTVis Pesaro 0–4 Ravenna · Ravenna win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ravenna are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Vis Pesaro 26%, draw 31%, Ravenna 44%. Over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Vis Pesaro v RavennaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Vis Pesaro win26%

Draw31%

Ravenna win44%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 16:30

RoundGirone B · matchday 11

VenueTonino Benelli

RefereeL. Mastrodomenico

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Vis Pesaro

Ravenna

6Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · Serie C - Girone B

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Ravenna	10	+10	20
20	Vis Pesaro	9	−10	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ravenna winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Ravenna a 44% chance to win. The model expects 0.9–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Vis Pesaro v Ravenna~~0.92 – 1.29

~~Form · last six in Serie C - Girone B this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D0 L5 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 4 v 20~~20 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Ravenna win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Vis Pesaro win	26%	–	–
Draw	31%	–	–
Ravenna win	44%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	38%	–	–
Both teams to score	44%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	66%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	19%	–	–
Vis Pesaro or draw	56%	–	–
Vis Pesaro clean sheet	28%	–	–
Ravenna clean sheet	40%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.8%

0123450 12.3 13.0 9.1 4.0 1 9.0 13.8 8.2 3.6 2 4.7 5.9 3.8 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Vis Pesaro down, Ravenna across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,979 Serie C - Girone B matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie C - Girone B matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.1% of games this season, across 102 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Vis Pesaro at home: 1.67 scored, 2.50 conceded a game (last 6). Ravenna away: 1.00 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.92 goals for Vis Pesaro, 1.29 for Ravenna. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~RAV 1–0 VIS · VIS 1–0 RAV

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie C - Girone B this season · since 12 Sept

VIS PESARO

LLLWLL1–2 · 1–4 · 1–3 · 2–1 · 2–3 · 0–1

RAVENNA

WWWLWL1–0 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 3–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Spezia	10	+14	28
2	Ravenna	10	+10	20
3	Grosseto	10	+8	19
4	Pescara	11	+2	18
5	Reggiana	10	+5	17
6	Guidonia Montecelio 1937	10	+4	16
7	Livorno	10	+1	16
8	Perugia	11	−2	16
9	Vado	11	+1	15
10	Torres	10	−1	15
11	Pineto	11	−2	14
12	Latina	10	0	13
13	Atalanta II	9	−3	12
14	Campobasso FC	10	−5	12
15	Forli	10	0	11
16	Ostia Mare	11	−4	9
17	Pianese	10	−4	8
18	Sambenedettese	10	−3	7
19	Gubbio	11	−11	7
20	Vis Pesaro	9	−10	4