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Vis Pesaro v Grosseto

Vis Pesaro

2–3Full time

Grosseto

Serie C - Girone B · SAT 10 OCT · Tonino Benelli

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 16:06

Vis Pesaro 2–3 Grosseto GROSSETO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Grosseto win~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.572

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 39 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Grosseto win at 38%.
1′Much as we predicted: Grosseto was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 33–28–39
1′KICK-OFF Vis Pesaro v Grosseto
6′⚽ GOAL · 6' Vis Pesaro 0–1 Grosseto
6′⚽ GOAL · 7' Vis Pesaro 0–1 Grosseto
18′🟨 YELLOW · 18' Vis Pesaro
21′Grosseto ahead on 7′ through M. Fiorani. 0–1. 0–1 · 10–21–69
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Grosseto win: 38% at kick-off, 69% now
22′⚽ GOAL · 22' Vis Pesaro 1–1 Grosseto · M. Fiorani
22′⚽ GOAL · 23' Vis Pesaro 1–1 Grosseto
25′⚽ GOAL · 25' Vis Pesaro 1–1 Grosseto · M. Fiorani
26′⚽ GOAL · 26' Vis Pesaro 1–1 Grosseto
27′⚽ GOAL · 27' Vis Pesaro 1–2 Grosseto · G. Maucci
27′⚽ GOAL · 28' Vis Pesaro 1–2 Grosseto
41′28′ and it is 1–2: F. Fabri on the scoresheet for Grosseto. 1–2 · 7–20–72
42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Vis Pesaro 1–3 Grosseto · F. Fabri
43′⚽ GOAL · 43' Vis Pesaro 1–2 Grosseto
45′SECOND HALF Vis Pesaro 1–2 Grosseto
45′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Vis Pesaro · On: S. Ebano · Off: P. Giorgini
45′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Grosseto · On: E. Pitti · Off: D. Brenna
47′We published Grosseto at 38%. Our model now makes it 73%. 1–2 · 7–20–73
52′⚽ GOAL · 7' Vis Pesaro 1–2 Grosseto · P. Fiorini (assist A. Ciraudo)
52′🟨 YELLOW · 18' P. Giorgini · Vis Pesaro
52′⚽ GOAL · 26' Vis Pesaro 1–2 Grosseto · G. Maucci
52′⚽ GOAL · 28' Vis Pesaro 1–2 Grosseto · F. Fabri (assist L. Sabattini)
52′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Vis Pesaro · On: S. Ebano · Off: P. Giorgini
52′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Grosseto · On: E. Pitti · Off: D. Brenna
58′We published Grosseto at 38%. Our model now makes it 77%. 1–2 · 4–19–77
58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Vis Pesaro · On: G. Gambino · Off: A. Konate
58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Vis Pesaro · On: G. Bailo · Off: F. Pompilio
65′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Grosseto
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Vis Pesaro 1–3 Grosseto · F. Fabri
68′⚽ GOAL · 69' Vis Pesaro 1–3 Grosseto
73′🟨 YELLOW · 70' M. Di Paola · Vis Pesaro
73′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Grosseto · On: M. Damiani · Off: L. Andreoli
73′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Grosseto · On: T. Fantacci · Off: P. Fiorini
73′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Vis Pesaro · On: N. Berengo · Off: D. Tonucci
77′⚽ GOAL · 75' Vis Pesaro 2–3 Grosseto · F. Nicastro
80′F. Nicastro scores for Vis Pesaro on 75′ — 2–3. 2–3 · 1–10–90
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Vis Pesaro · On: F. Sculli · Off: E. Mariani
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Grosseto win: 38% at kick-off, 90% now
83′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Grosseto · On: F. Cerretelli · Off: L. Sabattini
83′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Grosseto · On: F. Mastroianni · Off: L. Gori
90′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Grosseto
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Vis Pesaro
FTFULL TIME Vis Pesaro 2–3 Grosseto
FTVis Pesaro 2–3 Grosseto · Grosseto win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Vis Pesaro win32%

Draw30%

Grosseto win38%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:30

Venue · Tonino Benelli

Referee · F. Ramondino

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Vis Pesaro

Formation not confirmed

25 A. Gomis

2 N. Conti

45 P. Giorgini

5 D. Tonucci

33 F. Pompilio

47 A. Konate

55 E. Mariani

7 M. Pucciarelli

30 G. Maucci

9 F. Nicastro

10 M. Di Paola

Coach · Andrea Gennari

Substitutes

1 · M. Piersanti

16 · A. Guarnone

22 · M. Mariani

6 · A. Tomassini

36 · G. Bailo

79 · S. Ebano

78 · A. Carnaroli

4 · C. Nina

24 · N. Berengo

90 · N. Lari

14 · S. Ascione

20 · R. Giovannini

80 · G. Gambino

21 · C. Vaccaro

27 · F. Sculli

Grosseto

Formation not confirmed

35 A. Marcu

32 A. Ciraudo

27 D. Brenna

23 F. Ampollini

19 A. Montini

29 L. Andreoli

16 M. Fiorani

11 P. Fiorini

70 F. Fabri

5 L. Sabattini

9 L. Gori

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · M. Cabella

12 · D. Menicucci

21 · L. Gonnelli

91 · E. Pitti

24 · L. Alfani

99 · T. Della Mora

25 · T. Fantacci

6 · F. Cerretelli

8 · M. Damiani

77 · E. Lorenzelli

10 · F. Mastroianni

39 · L. Tosi

18 · J. Lorenzini

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Vis Pesaro

Formation not confirmed

25 A. Gomis

2 N. Conti

45 P. Giorgini

5 D. Tonucci

33 F. Pompilio

47 A. Konate

55 E. Mariani

7 M. Pucciarelli

30 G. Maucci

9 F. Nicastro

10 M. Di Paola

Coach · Andrea Gennari

Substitutes

1 · M. Piersanti

16 · A. Guarnone

22 · M. Mariani

6 · A. Tomassini

36 · G. Bailo

79 · S. Ebano

78 · A. Carnaroli

4 · C. Nina

24 · N. Berengo

90 · N. Lari

14 · S. Ascione

20 · R. Giovannini

80 · G. Gambino

21 · C. Vaccaro

27 · F. Sculli

Grosseto

Formation not confirmed

35 A. Marcu

32 A. Ciraudo

27 D. Brenna

23 F. Ampollini

19 A. Montini

29 L. Andreoli

16 M. Fiorani

11 P. Fiorini

70 F. Fabri

5 L. Sabattini

9 L. Gori

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · M. Cabella

12 · D. Menicucci

21 · L. Gonnelli

91 · E. Pitti

24 · L. Alfani

99 · T. Della Mora

25 · T. Fantacci

6 · F. Cerretelli

8 · M. Damiani

77 · E. Lorenzelli

10 · F. Mastroianni

39 · L. Tosi

18 · J. Lorenzini

Our number · grosseto winPublished 10 Oct 13:47

38% The market–

Us38%

We make Grosseto a 38% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Vis Pesaro win	32%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
Grosseto win	38%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	42%	–	–
Both teams to score	48%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	69%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	22%	–	–
Vis Pesaro or draw	62%	–	–
Vis Pesaro clean sheet	29%	–	–
Grosseto clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.7%

0123450 10.9 10.7 7.3 3.1 1 9.4 13.7 7.9 3.4 2 5.9 7.1 4.4 3 2.3 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Vis Pesaro down, Grosseto across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,955 Serie C - Girone B matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie C - Girone B matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.2% of games this season, across 78 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Vis Pesaro at home: 1.83 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Grosseto away: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.12 goals for Vis Pesaro, 1.25 for Grosseto. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~VIS 2–1 GRO · GRO 1–1 VIS

Form · last six in Serie C - Girone B

VIS PESARO

DLLLLW2–2 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 1–4 · 1–3 · 2–1

GROSSETO

WDDWWL2–0 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 2–0 · 4–0 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Spezia	8	+11	22
2	Ravenna	8	+9	17
3	Grosseto	8	+7	15
4	Reggiana	8	+5	14
5	Livorno	8	+1	14
6	Perugia	8	−3	13
7	Guidonia Montecelio 1937	8	+3	12
8	Campobasso FC	8	+1	12
9	Torres	8	0	12
10	Pescara	8	−1	11
11	Forli	8	+1	10
12	Atalanta II	6	−2	9
13	Ostia Mare	8	−1	8
14	Vado	8	−2	8
15	Pineto	8	−5	7
16	Gubbio	8	−6	7
17	Latina	7	−3	6
18	Pianese	8	−4	6
19	Sambenedettese	8	−3	5
20	Vis Pesaro	7	−8	4