Vado v Sambenedettese

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Vado win at 43%.
2. 1′Much as we predicted: Vado was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 42–32–26
3. 1′KICK-OFF Vado v Sambenedettese
4. 22′We said Vado at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 15%. 0–1 · 15–24–61
5. 22′⚽ GOAL · 22' Vado 0–1 Sambenedettese
6. 22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Vado win: 43% at kick-off, 15% now
7. 22′THE CALL SWINGS · 22' Sambenedettese win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Vado win 15%)
8. 23′A goal for Sambenedettese on 23′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 15–24–61
9. 24′We said Vado at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–24–61
10. 28′K. Candellori scores for Sambenedettese on 22′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 13–24–62
11. 28′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 28' Vado win: 43% at kick-off, 13% now
12. 29′We said Vado at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 3%. 0–2 · 3–10–87
13. 29′⚽ GOAL · 29' Vado 0–2 Sambenedettese
14. 29′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 29' Vado win: 43% at kick-off, 3% now
15. 30′A goal for Sambenedettese on 30′. 0–1 · 13–24–63
16. 31′Goals are coming at about the 2.1 we expected. 0–1 · 13–24–63
17. 31′GOAL DISALLOWED · 31' Sambenedettese
18. 31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Vado win: 43% at kick-off, 13% now
19. 43′We said Vado at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–24–67
20. 45′SECOND HALF Vado 0–1 Sambenedettese
21. 46′HALF-TIME Vado 0–1 Sambenedettese
22. 50′🟨 YELLOW · 50' Vado
23. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Sambenedettese · On: M. Chelli · Off: A. Camigliano
24. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Sambenedettese · On: D. P. Stabile · Off: S. Magnaghi
25. 66′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Sambenedettese
26. 67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Vado win: 43% at kick-off, 3% now
27. 70′PENALTY MISSED · 69' Vado
28. 72′PENALTY MISSED · 72' Vado
29. 73′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Sambenedettese
30. 74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Vado 1–1 Sambenedettese
31. 74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Vado win: 43% at kick-off, 17% now
32. 74′THE CALL SWINGS · 74' Draw is now our likeliest result at 71% (was Sambenedettese win 12%)
33. 75′Vado score on 75′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 16–72–11
34. 75′We published Vado at 43%. Our model now makes it 89%. 2–1 · 89–11–1
35. 75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Vado 2–1 Sambenedettese
36. 75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Vado win: 43% at kick-off, 89% now
37. 75′THE CALL SWINGS · 75' Vado win is now our likeliest result at 89% (was Draw 11%)
38. 76′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.1 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 89–10–1
39. 76′Vado find the net on 76′. 2–1. 2–1 · 89–10–1
40. 77′We published Vado at 43%. Our model now makes it 90%. 2–1 · 90–10–1
41. 77′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Vado
42. 79′Vado ahead on 76′ through D. Vita. 2–1. 2–1 · 91–9–0
43. 79′We published Vado at 43%. Our model now makes it 91%. 2–1 · 91–9–0
44. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Sambenedettese · On: E. Plicco · Off: L. Pezzola
45. 80′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.1 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 92–8–0
46. 81′We said Vado at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 11%. 2–2 · 11–82–8
47. 81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Vado 2–2 Sambenedettese
48. 81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Vado win: 43% at kick-off, 11% now
49. 81′THE CALL SWINGS · 81' Draw is now our likeliest result at 82% (was Vado win 11%)
50. 82′4 goals already, more than the 2.1 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 10–83–7
51. 82′A goal for Sambenedettese on 82′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 10–83–7
52. 83′We said Vado at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 2–2 · 9–85–6
53. 83′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Sambenedettese
54. 84′We published Vado at 43%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
55. 84′GOAL DISALLOWED · 84' Sambenedettese
56. 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Vado win: 43% at kick-off, 95% now
57. 84′THE CALL SWINGS · 84' Vado win is now our likeliest result at 95% (was Draw 5%)
58. 85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' Vado win: 43% at kick-off, 95% now
59. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Vado · On: M. Viti · Off: M. Candiano
60. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Vado · On: L. Lischetti · Off: D. Vita
61. 90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Sambenedettese
62. 96′We said Vado at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 1%. 2–2 · 1–98–1
63. 96′A goal for Sambenedettese on 90′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 1–98–1
64. 96′⚽ GOAL · 90+6' Vado 2–2 Sambenedettese
65. 96′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+6' Vado win: 43% at kick-off, 1% now
66. 96′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+6' Draw is now our likeliest result at 98% (was Vado win 1%)
67. 97′Full time, 2–2. We called Vado at 43% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 2–2 · 0–100–0
68. FTFULL TIME Vado 2–2 Sambenedettese
69. FTVado 2–2 Sambenedettese · Vado win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.