Torres v Atalanta II prediction · Serie C

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 14:05

Torres 2–1 Atalanta II TORRES WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Torres win~~43%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.488

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.473

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 35 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Torres win at 43%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Torres 43% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–28–28
10′Little has changed for our model: Torres 43% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 43–29–28
20′14′ and it is 1–0: G. Berto on the scoresheet for Torres. 1–0 · 73–19–9
21′14′ and it is 1–0: G. Berto on the scoresheet for Torres. 1–0 · 73–19–9
37′Torres ahead on 27′ through L. Scotto. 2–0. 2–0 · 94–5–1
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Torres win: 43% at kick-off, 73% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Torres win: 43% at kick-off, 94% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Torres win: 43% at kick-off, 73% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Torres win: 43% at kick-off, 73% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Torres win: 43% at kick-off, 94% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Torres win: 43% at kick-off, 94% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Torres win: 43% at kick-off, 73% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Torres win: 43% at kick-off, 94% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Torres win: 43% at kick-off, 73% now
42′Torres ahead on 27′ through L. Scotto. 2–0. 2–0 · 94–5–1
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Torres win: 43% at kick-off, 94% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Torres win: 43% at kick-off, 73% now
45′HALF-TIME Torres 2–0 Atalanta II
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Torres win: 43% at kick-off, 94% now
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Atalanta II · On: G. Misitano · Off: S. Diao
46′SECOND HALF Torres 2–0 Atalanta II
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Torres win: 43% at kick-off, 94% now
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Torres win: 43% at kick-off, 94% now
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Torres 2–2 Atalanta II · S. Levak
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Torres 2–2 Atalanta II
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Atalanta II · On: G. Bertolini · Off: F. Steffanoni
61′⚽ GOAL · 60' Torres 2–1 Atalanta II
61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Atalanta II · On: D. Ghislandi · Off: A. Guerini
61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Torres 2–1 Atalanta II
70′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Atalanta II · On: D. Ghislandi · Off: A. Guerini
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Torres · On: M. Liviero · Off: A. Masala
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Torres · On: M. Scaringi · Off: M. Kebbeh
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Torres · On: C. Bunino · Off: L. Scotto
79′🟨 YELLOW · 78' Atalanta II
80′🟨 YELLOW · 78' Atalanta II
81′PENALTY MISSED · 80' Torres
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Torres 2–1 Atalanta II
90′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Torres · On: A. Lunghi · Off: L. Di Stefano
90′🟨 YELLOW · 94' Torres
90′SUBSTITUTION · 95' Torres · On: D. Giorico · Off: M. Liviero Corrected
FTFULL TIME Torres 2–1 Atalanta II
FTTorres 2–1 Atalanta II · Torres win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Torres win43%

Draw29%

Atalanta II win28%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 11:30

VenueVanni Sanna

RefereeS. Palmieri

Line-ups

Torres

Atalanta II

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Torres

Atalanta II

7Days since last match21

1Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Torres	8	0	12
13	Atalanta II	6	−2	9

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Torres

Formation not confirmed

12 A. Zaccagno

26 M. Kebbeh

23 N. Antonelli

3 G. Berto

77 G. Zecca

4 M. Brentan

10 G. Mastinu

21 F. Corsinelli

8 A. Masala

7 L. Di Stefano

9 L. Scotto

Coach · Alfonso Greco

Substitutes

1 · D. Tirelli

44 · G. Zanandrea

47 · M. Scaringi

5 · D. Giorico

32 · M. Carboni

15 · M. Liviero

11 · C. Bunino

20 · A. Lunghi

30 · A. Sanat

Atalanta II

Formation not confirmed

22 A. Anelli

18 A. Guerini

14 J. Mirra

43 L. Puljic

37 A. Navarro

21 F. Steffanoni

8 D. K. Pounga

47 S. Levak

7 A. Manzoni

45 H. Camara

29 S. Diao

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · T. Bertini

70 · E. Zanchi

77 · A. Rinaldi

33 · F. Bergonzi

3 · F. Simonetto

23 · I. Isoa

24 · D. Ghislandi

17 · N. Gariani

10 · A. Bonanomi

91 · F. Mencaraglia

9 · G. Misitano

90 · E. Zanaboni

28 · G. Bertolini

Our number · torres winPublished 11 Oct 11:44

43% The market44%

Us43%

~~Market~~44%

We make Torres a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.4–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · torres win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 43% to 44% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Torres win	43%	44%	−1
Draw	29%	28%	+2
Atalanta II win	28%	28%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	42%	54%	−11
Both teams to score	48%	58%	−10
Over 1.5 goals	69%	75%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	22%	33%	−12
Torres or draw	72%	72%	+1
Torres clean sheet	36%	–	–
Atalanta II clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.7%

0123450 10.7 8.5 4.9 1 11.4 13.7 6.5 2.3 2 8.4 8.5 4.4 3 3.8 3.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Torres down, Atalanta II across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,958 Serie C - Girone B matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie C - Girone B matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.7% of games this season, across 81 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Torres at home: 1.50 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Atalanta II away: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.35 goals for Torres, 1.03 for Atalanta II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Serie C - Girone B

TORRES

LWWDDD0–2 · 3–2 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 1–1

ATALANTA II

LWLWWL0–2 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 3–2 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Spezia	9	+13	25
2	Grosseto	9	+8	18
3	Ravenna	8	+9	17
4	Reggiana	8	+5	14
5	Livorno	8	+1	14
6	Perugia	8	−3	13
7	Guidonia Montecelio 1937	8	+3	12
8	Campobasso FC	8	+1	12
9	Torres	8	0	12
10	Pescara	8	−1	11
11	Forli	8	+1	10
12	Ostia Mare	9	−1	9
13	Atalanta II	6	−2	9
14	Vado	8	−2	8
15	Pianese	9	−4	7
16	Pineto	8	−5	7
17	Gubbio	9	−8	7
18	Latina	7	−3	6
19	Sambenedettese	8	−3	5
20	Vis Pesaro	8	−9	4