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Spezia v Gubbio

Spezia

2–0Full time

Gubbio

Serie C - Girone B · SAT 10 OCT · Stadio Alberto Picco

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 22:01

Spezia 2–0 Gubbio SPEZIA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Spezia win~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.380

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 56 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Spezia win at 50%.
0′Much as we predicted: Spezia was 50% before kick-off and our model makes it 51% now. 0–0 · 51–27–22
19′R. Sganzerla scores for Spezia on 3′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 79–16–6
29′R. Sganzerla scores for Spezia on 3′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 79–16–5
34′🟨 YELLOW · 19' T. Ghirardello · Gubbio
34′🟨 YELLOW · 25' A. Cardinali · Spezia
37′⚽ GOAL · 37' Spezia 2–0 Gubbio
37′⚽ GOAL · 3' Spezia 2–0 Gubbio · R. Sganzerla (assist A. Cardinali)
37′🟨 YELLOW · 19' T. Ghirardello · Gubbio
37′🟨 YELLOW · 25' A. Cardinali · Spezia
38′⚽ GOAL · 3' Spezia 2–0 Gubbio · R. Sganzerla (assist A. Cardinali)
38′🟨 YELLOW · 19' T. Ghirardello · Gubbio
38′🟨 YELLOW · 25' A. Cardinali · Spezia
38′⚽ GOAL · 38' Spezia 2–0 Gubbio
42′⚽ GOAL · 3' Spezia 2–0 Gubbio · R. Sganzerla (assist A. Cardinali)
42′🟨 YELLOW · 19' T. Ghirardello · Gubbio
42′🟨 YELLOW · 25' A. Cardinali · Spezia
42′⚽ GOAL · 38' Spezia 2–0 Gubbio · S. Mazzocchi (assist A. Mateju)
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Spezia win: 50% at kick-off, 79% now
45′SECOND HALF Spezia 2–0 Gubbio
46′HALF-TIME Spezia 2–0 Gubbio
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Spezia win: 50% at kick-off, 79% now
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Gubbio · On: G. Beretta · Off: E. Baldini
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Spezia win: 50% at kick-off, 79% now
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' Spezia win: 50% at kick-off, 79% now
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Spezia win: 50% at kick-off, 79% now
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Spezia win: 50% at kick-off, 79% now
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Spezia win: 50% at kick-off, 79% now
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' Spezia win: 50% at kick-off, 79% now
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Spezia win: 50% at kick-off, 79% now
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Spezia win: 50% at kick-off, 79% now
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Spezia win: 50% at kick-off, 79% now
57′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Gubbio
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' Spezia win: 50% at kick-off, 79% now
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Spezia win: 50% at kick-off, 79% now
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' Spezia win: 50% at kick-off, 79% now
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' Spezia win: 50% at kick-off, 79% now
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 61' Spezia win: 50% at kick-off, 79% now
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Gubbio · On: N. Fazzi · Off: A. La Mantia
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 62' Spezia win: 50% at kick-off, 79% now
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Spezia · On: M. Zilli · Off: S. Mazzocchi
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' Spezia win: 50% at kick-off, 79% now
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' Spezia win: 50% at kick-off, 79% now
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Spezia win: 50% at kick-off, 79% now
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Spezia win: 50% at kick-off, 79% now
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' Spezia win: 50% at kick-off, 79% now
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Spezia win: 50% at kick-off, 79% now
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' Spezia win: 50% at kick-off, 79% now
70′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Gubbio · On: L. Barani · Off: M. Spina
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Spezia win: 50% at kick-off, 79% now
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' Spezia win: 50% at kick-off, 79% now
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 72' Spezia win: 50% at kick-off, 79% now
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' Spezia win: 50% at kick-off, 79% now
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Spezia win: 50% at kick-off, 79% now
76′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Spezia · On: D. Cancellieri · Off: J. Oyono
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Gubbio · On: B. Zorzetto · Off: G. Rosaia
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Spezia · On: M. Durmush · Off: D. Cazzadori
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Spezia · On: K. Jimenez · Off: C. Limonelli
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Spezia · On: K. Cannavo · Off: A. Cardinali
FTFULL TIME Spezia 2–0 Gubbio
FTSpezia 2–0 Gubbio · Spezia win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Spezia win50%

Draw29%

Gubbio win21%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 19:30

Venue · Stadio Alberto Picco

Referee · S. Gauzolino

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Spezia

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Micai

37 A. Mateju

13 M. Sapola

6 R. Sganzerla

31 J. Oyono

70 K. Bright

14 G. Capomaggio

97 D. Cazzadori

24 C. Limonelli

11 A. Cardinali

9 S. Mazzocchi

Coach · Marco Turati

Substitutes

22 · G. Ciocci

35 · G. Doretti

3 · D. Cancellieri

55 · J. Spedalieri

65 · S. Giorgeschi

44 · M. Benvenuto

5 · Joselito

10 · K. Jimenez

21 · P. Candelari

7 · G. Di Serio

28 · M. Zilli

90 · R. Fontanarosa

34 · K. Cannavo

77 · M. Durmush

Gubbio

Formation not confirmed

1 N. Bagnolini

34 F. Zallu

4 L. Baroncelli

70 M. Ferrini

27 L. Podda

7 M. Spina

67 F. Carraro

8 G. Rosaia

73 T. Ghirardello

92 E. Baldini

10 A. La Mantia

Coach · Piero Braglia

Substitutes

22 · L. Marson

15 · A. Signorini

76 · L. Barani

17 · N. Fazzi

6 · O. Barry

21 · B. Zorzetto

24 · L. Piomboni

81 · G. Beretta

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Spezia

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Micai

37 A. Mateju

13 M. Sapola

6 R. Sganzerla

31 J. Oyono

70 K. Bright

14 G. Capomaggio

97 D. Cazzadori

24 C. Limonelli

11 A. Cardinali

9 S. Mazzocchi

Coach · Marco Turati

Substitutes

22 · G. Ciocci

35 · G. Doretti

3 · D. Cancellieri

55 · J. Spedalieri

65 · S. Giorgeschi

44 · M. Benvenuto

5 · Joselito

10 · K. Jimenez

21 · P. Candelari

7 · G. Di Serio

28 · M. Zilli

90 · R. Fontanarosa

34 · K. Cannavo

77 · M. Durmush

Gubbio

Formation not confirmed

1 N. Bagnolini

34 F. Zallu

4 L. Baroncelli

70 M. Ferrini

27 L. Podda

7 M. Spina

67 F. Carraro

8 G. Rosaia

73 T. Ghirardello

92 E. Baldini

10 A. La Mantia

Coach · Piero Braglia

Substitutes

22 · L. Marson

15 · A. Signorini

76 · L. Barani

17 · N. Fazzi

6 · O. Barry

21 · B. Zorzetto

24 · L. Piomboni

81 · G. Beretta

Our number · spezia winPublished 10 Oct 19:30

50% The market–

Us50%

We make Spezia a 50% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–0.8, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Spezia win	50%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Gubbio win	21%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	39%	–	–
Both teams to score	43%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	67%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	19%	–	–
Spezia or draw	79%	–	–
Spezia clean sheet	44%	–	–
Gubbio clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.9%

0123450 11.8 7.8 3.7 1 13.9 13.2 5.1 2 10.6 8.6 3.6 3 5.1 4.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Spezia down, Gubbio across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,955 Serie C - Girone B matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie C - Girone B matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.2% of games this season, across 78 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Spezia at home: 2.00 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 3). Gubbio away: 0.83 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.42 goals for Spezia, 0.83 for Gubbio. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Serie C - Girone B

SPEZIA

WWWWWW2–1 · 2–0 · 3–0 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 1–0

GUBBIO

WWDLLL4–2 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Spezia	8	+11	22
2	Ravenna	8	+9	17
3	Grosseto	8	+7	15
4	Reggiana	8	+5	14
5	Livorno	8	+1	14
6	Perugia	8	−3	13
7	Guidonia Montecelio 1937	8	+3	12
8	Campobasso FC	8	+1	12
9	Torres	8	0	12
10	Pescara	8	−1	11
11	Forli	8	+1	10
12	Atalanta II	6	−2	9
13	Ostia Mare	8	−1	8
14	Vado	8	−2	8
15	Pineto	8	−5	7
16	Gubbio	8	−6	7
17	Latina	7	−3	6
18	Pianese	8	−4	6
19	Sambenedettese	8	−3	5
20	Vis Pesaro	7	−8	4