Home › Football › Serie C - Girone B › Sambenedettese v Livorno

Sambenedettese v Livorno

Sambenedettese

2–1Full time

Livorno

Serie C - Girone B · SAT 24 OCT · Stadio Comunale Riviera delle Palme

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 16:33

Sambenedettese 2–1 Livorno SAMBENEDETTESE WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sambenedettese win~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.545

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sambenedettese win at 40%.
0′KICK-OFF Sambenedettese v Livorno
1′Little has changed for our model: Sambenedettese 40% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 40–29–31
7′We said Sambenedettese at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 69%. 1–0 · 69–18–13
7′⚽ GOAL · 7' Sambenedettese 1–0 Livorno
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 7' Sambenedettese win: 40% at kick-off, 69% now
9′Sambenedettese score on 8′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 69–19–12
11′We said Sambenedettese at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 88%. 2–0 · 88–9–4
11′⚽ GOAL · 11' Sambenedettese 2–0 Livorno
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 11' Sambenedettese win: 40% at kick-off, 88% now
13′Sambenedettese find the net on 12′. 2–0. 2–0 · 88–8–3
23′We said Sambenedettese at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 2–0 · 90–8–3
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Sambenedettese win: 40% at kick-off, 90% now
36′🟨 YELLOW · 36' Sambenedettese
45′SECOND HALF Sambenedettese 2–0 Livorno
47′HALF-TIME Sambenedettese 2–0 Livorno
50′We said Sambenedettese at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 2–1 · 75–19–6
50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Sambenedettese 2–1 Livorno
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Sambenedettese win: 40% at kick-off, 75% now
51′3 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 75–19–6
52′A goal for Livorno on 51′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 75–19–6
58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Sambenedettese · On: A. Faggioli · Off: G. Tunjov
60′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Sambenedettese · On: P. Marranzino · Off: L. Sgarbi
62′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Livorno · On: T. Mancini · Off: J. C. Mawete
63′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Sambenedettese
65′We said Sambenedettese at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 2–1 · 80–17–3
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Sambenedettese win: 40% at kick-off, 80% now
72′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Sambenedettese · On: S. Magnaghi · Off: D. P. Stabile
74′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Livorno · On: J. Marinari · Off: A. Bacciardi
74′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Livorno · On: D. Gentile · Off: T. Pittino
74′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Livorno · On: L. Bonassi · Off: L. Malagrida
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Sambenedettese win: 40% at kick-off, 90% now
84′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Livorno · On: D. Peralta · Off: G. Gabbiani
85′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Sambenedettese · On: F. Perrotta · Off: K. Candellori
85′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Sambenedettese · On: E. Plicco · Off: S. Nicoli
87′We said Sambenedettese at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
97′2–1 at the end. Our 40% on Sambenedettese comes in. 2–1 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Sambenedettese 2–1 Livorno
FTSambenedettese 2–1 Livorno · Sambenedettese win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sambenedettese are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sambenedettese 40%, draw 29%, Livorno 31%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Sambenedettese v LivornoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Sambenedettese win40%

Draw29%

Livorno win31%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:30

RoundGirone B · matchday 11

VenueStadio Comunale Riviera delle Palme

RefereeA. Diop

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sambenedettese

Livorno

7Days since last match8

Last match: 17 Oct · Serie C - Girone B

Last match: 16 Oct · Serie C - Girone B

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Livorno	10	+1	16
18	Sambenedettese	10	−3	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sambenedettese winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Sambenedettese a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sambenedettese v Livorno~~1.35 – 1.17

~~Form · last six in Serie C - Girone B this season · since 16 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 7 v 16~~18 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sambenedettese win	40%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Livorno win	31%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	46%	–	–
Both teams to score	51%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	72%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	25%	–	–
Sambenedettese or draw	69%	–	–
Sambenedettese clean sheet	32%	–	–
Livorno clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.5%

0123450 9.5 8.4 5.5 2.2 1 9.9 13.5 7.3 2.9 2 7.3 8.3 4.9 3 3.3 3.8 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sambenedettese down, Livorno across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,979 Serie C - Girone B matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie C - Girone B matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.1% of games this season, across 102 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 2.67 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sambenedettese at home: 1.50 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Livorno away: 0.67 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.35 goals for Sambenedettese, 1.17 for Livorno. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~2.67

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~SAM 0–0 LIV · LIV 2–1 SAM · SAM 2–3 LIV

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie C - Girone B this season · since 16 Sept

SAMBENEDETTESE

LDLWDD2–3 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 2–2

LIVORNO

WDWLDD3–2 · 1–1 · 3–2 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 4–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Spezia	10	+14	28
2	Ravenna	10	+10	20
3	Grosseto	10	+8	19
4	Pescara	11	+2	18
5	Reggiana	10	+5	17
6	Guidonia Montecelio 1937	10	+4	16
7	Livorno	10	+1	16
8	Perugia	11	−2	16
9	Vado	11	+1	15
10	Torres	10	−1	15
11	Pineto	11	−2	14
12	Latina	10	0	13
13	Atalanta II	9	−3	12
14	Campobasso FC	10	−5	12
15	Forli	10	0	11
16	Ostia Mare	11	−4	9
17	Pianese	10	−4	8
18	Sambenedettese	10	−3	7
19	Gubbio	11	−11	7
20	Vis Pesaro	9	−10	4