Sambenedettese v Latina prediction · Serie C

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:04

Sambenedettese 1–1 Latina SAMBENEDETTESE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Sambenedettese win~~39%

~~The market said~~35%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.719

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.738

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sambenedettese win at 39%.
0′Little has changed for our model: Sambenedettese 39% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 40–29–31
5′Little has changed for our model: Sambenedettese 39% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 39–30–31
22′Latina ahead on 8′ through A. De Cristofaro. 0–1. 0–1 · 13–24–63
26′Latina ahead on 8′ through A. De Cristofaro. 0–1. 0–1 · 12–24–64
28′Latina ahead on 8′ through A. De Cristofaro. 0–1. 0–1 · 12–24–65
45′SECOND HALF Sambenedettese 0–1 Latina
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Sambenedettese win: 39% at kick-off, 8% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Latina win is now our likeliest result at 69% (was Sambenedettese win 8%)
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Sambenedettese win: 39% at kick-off, 8% now
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 46' Latina win is now our likeliest result at 69% (was Sambenedettese win 8%)
47′We said Sambenedettese at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 8%. 0–1 · 8–23–69
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Sambenedettese win: 39% at kick-off, 8% now
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Latina win is now our likeliest result at 69% (was Sambenedettese win 8%)
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Sambenedettese win: 39% at kick-off, 8% now
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Latina win is now our likeliest result at 69% (was Sambenedettese win 8%)
55′SUBSTITUTION · 54' Sambenedettese · On: P. Marranzino · Off: S. Magnaghi
55′SUBSTITUTION · 54' Sambenedettese · On: K. Candellori · Off: E. Plicco
66′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Sambenedettese · On: A. Zini · Off: F. Perrotta
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Sambenedettese 1–1 Latina · A. De Cristofaro
67′⚽ GOAL · 68' Sambenedettese 1–1 Latina
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Latina · On: A. Cioffi · Off: G. Tomaselli
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Latina · On: G. Castorri · Off: R. De Ciancio
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Sambenedettese · On: D. P. Stabile · Off: G. Tunjov
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Latina · On: G. Parodi · Off: B. Calabrese
95′SUBSTITUTION · 94' Latina · On: M. Porro · Off: J. Baez
95′SUBSTITUTION · 94' Latina · On: L. Gagliano · Off: V. Plescia
96′🟨 YELLOW · 96' Sambenedettese
96′🟨 YELLOW · 97' Latina
FTFULL TIME Sambenedettese 1–1 Latina
FTSambenedettese 1–1 Latina · Sambenedettese win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Sambenedettese win39%

Draw31%

Latina win30%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 13:30

VenueStadio Comunale Riviera delle Palme

RefereeF. Colaninno

Line-ups

Sambenedettese

Latina

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Sambenedettese

Latina

8Days since last match7

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
18	Latina	7	−3	6
19	Sambenedettese	8	−3	5

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Sambenedettese

Formation not confirmed

12 T. Krapikas

21 F. Perrotta

5 M. Chelli

17 L. Pezzola

30 S. Nicoli

37 M. Toure

6 M. Piccoli

8 G. Tunjov

14 E. Plicco

9 L. Sgarbi

93 S. Magnaghi

Coach · Filippo D'Alesio

Substitutes

1 · G. Cultraro

90 · S. Kosijer

38 · L. Buljan

4 · A. Zini

23 · E. De Angelis

28 · J. Machin

18 · K. Candellori

7 · A. Faggioli

11 · D. P. Stabile

10 · P. Marranzino

20 · M. Carinelli

Latina

Formation not confirmed

67 D. Mastrantonio

13 F. Marenco

5 M. Bruscagin

6 B. Calabrese

2 E. Ercolano

4 A. De Cristofaro

30 R. De Ciancio

27 D'Angelo Sonny

70 G. Tomaselli

7 J. Baez

28 V. Plescia

Coach · Gennaro Volpe

Substitutes

1 · M. Basti

96 · C. Sbaccanti

32 · G. Parodi

16 · C. Sussi

66 · D. De Marchi

45 · C. Keita

36 · J. Lipani

8 · G. Castorri

3 · M. Porro

14 · L. Gagliano

77 · A. Cioffi

9 · Y. Sylla

19 · G. Di Giovannantonio

Our number · sambenedettese winPublished 11 Oct 13:43

39% The market35%

Us39%

~~Market~~35%

We make Sambenedettese a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 35%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · sambenedettese win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 37% to 35% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sambenedettese win	39%	35%	+3
Draw	31%	30%	+1
Latina win	30%	35%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	39%	39%	−1
Both teams to score	46%	47%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	66%	64%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	19%	21%	−2
Sambenedettese or draw	70%	65%	+4
Sambenedettese clean sheet	36%	–	–
Latina clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.1%

0123450 12.2 10.0 5.7 1 11.8 14.1 6.7 2.3 2 7.7 7.8 4.0 3 3.1 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sambenedettese down, Latina across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,958 Serie C - Girone B matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie C - Girone B matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.7% of games this season, across 81 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Sambenedettese at home: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Latina away: 0.67 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.20 goals for Sambenedettese, 1.03 for Latina. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Serie C - Girone B

SAMBENEDETTESE

LLLDLW1–2 · 1–2 · 2–3 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 3–1

LATINA

LWLDLD1–3 · 2–0 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Spezia	9	+13	25
2	Grosseto	9	+8	18
3	Ravenna	8	+9	17
4	Reggiana	8	+5	14
5	Livorno	8	+1	14
6	Perugia	8	−3	13
7	Guidonia Montecelio 1937	8	+3	12
8	Campobasso FC	8	+1	12
9	Torres	8	0	12
10	Pescara	8	−1	11
11	Forli	8	+1	10
12	Ostia Mare	9	−1	9
13	Atalanta II	6	−2	9
14	Vado	8	−2	8
15	Pianese	9	−4	7
16	Pineto	8	−5	7
17	Gubbio	9	−8	7
18	Latina	7	−3	6
19	Sambenedettese	8	−3	5
20	Vis Pesaro	8	−9	4