Reggiana v Torres prediction · Serie C - Girone B

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 16:26

Reggiana 2–0 Torres REGGIANA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Reggiana win~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.329

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Reggiana win at 53%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Reggiana 53% before kick-off, 53% now. 0–0 · 53–27–20
1′KICK-OFF Reggiana v Torres
15′🟨 YELLOW · 15' Reggiana
34′We said Reggiana at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 81%. 1–0 · 81–15–5
34′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 81–15–5
34′⚽ GOAL · 34' Reggiana 1–0 Torres
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' Reggiana win: 53% at kick-off, 81% now
35′Reggiana find the net on 35′. 1–0. 1–0 · 81–15–5
39′We said Reggiana at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 96%. 2–0 · 96–4–1
39′⚽ GOAL · 39' Reggiana 2–0 Torres
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Reggiana win: 53% at kick-off, 96% now
41′A goal for Reggiana on 40′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 96–3–1
45′SECOND HALF Reggiana 2–0 Torres
46′HALF-TIME Reggiana 2–0 Torres
51′🟨 YELLOW · 51' Torres
64′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Reggiana · On: L. Libutti · Off: Pasquoto Lucas
64′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Torres · On: G. Zanandrea · Off: M. Scaringi
70′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Reggiana · On: E. Cavaliere · Off: N. Girma
70′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Reggiana · On: M. Battistini · Off: T. Lepri
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Torres · On: M. Carboni · Off: C. Bunino
80′M. Portanova scores for Reggiana on 40′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
80′We said Reggiana at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
81′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 2–0 · 100–0–0
88′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Torres · On: D. Giorico · Off: M. Brentan
91′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Reggiana · On: F. Vallarelli · Off: M. Cavion
91′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Reggiana · On: T. Henry · Off: L. Sipos
94′2–0 at the end. Our 53% on Reggiana comes in. 2–0 · 100–0–0
94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+5' Reggiana
FTFULL TIME Reggiana 2–0 Torres
FTReggiana 2–0 Torres · Reggiana win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Reggiana are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Reggiana 53%, draw 27%, Torres 20%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Reggiana v TorresBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Reggiana win53%

Draw27%

Torres win20%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:30

RoundGirone B · matchday 10

RefereeG. Ambrosino

Line-ups

Reggiana

Torres

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Reggiana

Torres

13Days since last match6

Last match: 4 Oct · Serie C - Girone B

Last match: 11 Oct · Serie C - Girone B

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Torres	9	+1	15
6	Reggiana	8	+5	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Reggiana

Formation not confirmed

1 J. Furlan

98 T. Lepri

14 D. Quaranta

43 S. Bonetti

7 M. Rover

11 M. Cavion

8 K. Jonsson

90 M. Portanova

55 Pasquoto Lucas

80 N. Girma

25 L. Sipos

Coach · Attilio Tesser

Substitutes

12 · F. Borriello

22 · M. Sorzi

17 · L. Libutti

13 · M. Battistini

85 · A. Ezinwa

6 · L. Crisetig

26 · M. Bertagnoli

19 · D. Basili

21 · F. Vallarelli

47 · M. Tessitori

9 · T. Henry

32 · E. Cavaliere

Torres

Formation not confirmed

12 A. Zaccagno

47 M. Scaringi

23 N. Antonelli

3 G. Berto

77 G. Zecca

4 M. Brentan

10 G. Mastinu

21 F. Corsinelli

8 A. Masala

11 C. Bunino

7 L. Di Stefano

Coach · Alfonso Greco

Substitutes

1 · D. Tirelli

44 · G. Zanandrea

26 · M. Kebbeh

5 · D. Giorico

32 · M. Carboni

17 · M. Sotgiu

Our number · reggiana winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

53% The market–

Us53%

We make Reggiana a 53% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Reggiana v Torres~~1.61 – 0.86

~~Form · last six in Serie C - Girone B this season · since 6 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W3 D3 L0

~~Table places · points 14 v 15~~6 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Reggiana win	53%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Torres win	20%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	44%	–	–
Both teams to score	46%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	71%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	24%	–	–
Reggiana or draw	80%	–	–
Reggiana clean sheet	43%	–	–
Torres clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.5%

0123450 10.1 6.5 3.3 1 12.5 12.4 5.0 2 10.7 8.9 3.8 3 5.8 4.8 2.0 4 2.5 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Reggiana down, Torres across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,966 Serie C - Girone B matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie C - Girone B matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.9% of games this season, across 89 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Reggiana at home: 1.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Torres away: 0.67 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.61 goals for Reggiana, 0.86 for Torres. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~REG 1–0 TOR · TOR 0–2 REG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie C - Girone B this season · since 6 Sept

REGGIANA

WDWWLL3–1 · 1–1 · 4–1 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 0–1

TORRES

WWDDDW3–2 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Spezia	9	+13	25
2	Ravenna	9	+11	20
3	Grosseto	10	+8	19
4	Livorno	10	+1	16
5	Torres	9	+1	15
6	Reggiana	8	+5	14
7	Guidonia Montecelio 1937	9	+3	13
8	Perugia	9	−5	13
9	Campobasso FC	9	−1	12
10	Pescara	9	−1	12
11	Forli	9	+1	11
12	Vado	9	0	11
13	Latina	9	−1	10
14	Ostia Mare	9	−1	9
15	Atalanta II	8	−5	9
16	Pianese	9	−4	7
17	Pineto	8	−5	7
18	Gubbio	9	−8	7
19	Sambenedettese	9	−3	6
20	Vis Pesaro	8	−9	4