Reggiana v Sambenedettese prediction · Serie C

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

ReggianaDrawSambenedettese

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Reggiana 56%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Reggiana are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Reggiana 56%, draw 26%, Sambenedettese 18%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Reggiana v SambenedetteseBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Reggiana win56%

Draw26%

Sambenedettese win18%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 19:30

RoundGirone B · matchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Reggiana

Sambenedettese

10Days since last match6

Last match: 20 Oct · Serie C - Girone B

Last match: 24 Oct · Serie C - Girone B

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Reggiana	10	+5	17
16	Sambenedettese	11	−2	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · reggiana winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

56% The market–

Us56%

We make Reggiana a 56% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–0.8, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Reggiana v Sambenedettese~~1.67 – 0.82

~~Form · last six in Serie C - Girone B this season · since 16 Sept~~W3 D0 L3 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 17 v 10~~5 v 16

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Reggiana win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Reggiana win	56%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Sambenedettese win	18%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	45%	–	–
Both teams to score	45%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	71%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	24%	–	–
Reggiana or draw	82%	–	–
Reggiana clean sheet	45%	–	–
Sambenedettese clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.8%

0123450 9.8 6.1 3.0 1 12.8 12.1 4.6 2 11.2 8.9 3.7 3 6.3 5.0 2.0 4 2.8 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Reggiana down, Sambenedettese across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,983 Serie C - Girone B matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie C - Girone B matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.3% of games this season, across 106 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Reggiana at home: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Sambenedettese away: 1.67 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.67 goals for Reggiana, 0.82 for Sambenedettese. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie C - Girone B this season · since 16 Sept

REGGIANA

WWLLWL4–1 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 0–2

SAMBENEDETTESE

DLWDDW1–1 · 1–2 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Spezia	11	+14	29
2	Ravenna	11	+14	23
3	Grosseto	10	+8	19
4	Pescara	11	+2	18
5	Reggiana	10	+5	17
6	Guidonia Montecelio 1937	10	+4	16
7	Livorno	11	0	16
8	Perugia	11	−2	16
9	Vado	11	+1	15
10	Torres	10	−1	15
11	Campobasso FC	11	−4	15
12	Latina	11	0	14
13	Pineto	11	−2	14
14	Atalanta II	10	−4	12
15	Forli	10	0	11
16	Sambenedettese	11	−2	10
17	Ostia Mare	11	−4	9
18	Pianese	10	−4	8
19	Gubbio	11	−11	7
20	Vis Pesaro	10	−14	4