Ravenna v Spezia

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Ravenna win at 43%.
2. 0′KICK-OFF Ravenna v Spezia
3. 1′Much as we predicted: Ravenna was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 43–31–27
4. 29′🟥 RED CARD · 29' Ravenna
5. 30′A red card for Ravenna on 30′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–0 · 38–37–25
6. 31′🟨 YELLOW · 31' Ravenna
7. 39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Ravenna win 35%)
8. 42′Ravenna are down to nine from 41′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–0 · 34–42–23
9. 42′🟥 RED CARD · 41' Ravenna
10. 44′🟨 YELLOW · 44' Ravenna
11. 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Ravenna win: 43% at kick-off, 33% now
12. 45′SECOND HALF Ravenna 0–0 Spezia
13. 48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Ravenna · On: J. Tenkorang · Off: M. Maggio
14. 48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Spezia · On: K. Jimenez · Off: C. Limonelli
15. 48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Spezia · On: G. Di Serio · Off: M. Zilli
16. 49′HALF-TIME Ravenna 0–0 Spezia
17. 51′We said Ravenna at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 31%. 0–0 · 31–47–21
18. 55′We said Ravenna at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–50–20
19. 55′We said Ravenna at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 7%. 0–1 · 7–23–71
20. 55′Goals are coming at about the 2.3 we expected. 0–1 · 7–23–71
21. 55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Ravenna 0–1 Spezia
22. 55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Ravenna win: 43% at kick-off, 7% now
23. 55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' Spezia win is now our likeliest result at 71% (was Draw 23%)
24. 56′Spezia score on 56′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 7–22–71
25. 64′We said Ravenna at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–75
26. 67′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Spezia
27. 68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Ravenna win: 43% at kick-off, 3% now
28. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Ravenna · On: M. Fischnaller · Off: Vinicius
29. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Ravenna · On: N. Viola · Off: E. Duca
30. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Spezia · On: J. Oyono · Off: D. Cazzadori
31. 79′🟨 YELLOW · 78' Spezia
32. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Ravenna · On: M. Orellana · Off: L. Lonardi
33. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Spezia · On: D. Cancellieri · Off: S. Capolupo
34. 91′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Ravenna · On: E. Soleri · Off: G. Zaro
35. 91′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Spezia · On: J. Spedalieri · Off: M. Sapola
36. 93′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Ravenna 1–1 Spezia
37. 93′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+3' Draw is now our likeliest result at 96% (was Spezia win 2%)
38. 94′Ravenna find the net on 90′. 1–1. 1–1 · 1–98–1
39. 96′GOAL DISALLOWED · 90+6' Ravenna
40. 96′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+6' Spezia win is now our likeliest result at 99% (was Draw 1%)
41. 97′Full time, 0–1. We called Ravenna at 43% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 0–1 · 0–0–100
42. FTFULL TIME Ravenna 0–1 Spezia
43. FTRavenna 0–1 Spezia · Ravenna win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.