Pineto v Reggiana prediction · Serie C - Girone B

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 17:01

Pineto 2–0 Reggiana REGGIANA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Reggiana win~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.908

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Reggiana win at 49%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Reggiana 48% before kick-off, 49% now. 0–0 · 25–26–49
8′Little has changed for our model: Reggiana 48% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 25–28–48
30′R. Forte scores for Pineto on 11′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 57–26–17
37′R. Forte scores for Pineto on 11′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 59–26–14
45′SECOND HALF Pineto 2–0 Reggiana
45′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Reggiana · On: E. Cavaliere · Off: M. Bertagnoli
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Reggiana · On: E. Cavaliere · Off: M. Bertagnoli
47′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Pineto
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Reggiana win: 48% at kick-off, 14% now
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Pineto win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Reggiana win 14%)
49′🟨 YELLOW · 49' Pineto
51′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Reggiana · On: M. Cavion · Off: L. Libutti
51′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Pineto
64′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Pineto · On: M. Oliva · Off: A. Pellegrino Corrected
83′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Pineto · On: G. Di Renzo · Off: G. Alessandretti
83′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Pineto · On: A. Selvini · Off: D. Ferrante
83′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Pineto · On: T. D'Orazio · Off: R. Forte
83′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Reggiana · On: F. Vallarelli · Off: M. Cavion
84′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Reggiana · On: Pasquoto Lucas · Off: D. Basili
84′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Reggiana · On: T. Lepri · Off: A. Tripaldelli
99′SUBSTITUTION · 90+2' Reggiana · On: T. Henry · Off: M. Battistini
100′🟨 YELLOW · 90+9' Pineto
FTFULL TIME Pineto 2–0 Reggiana
FTPineto 2–0 Reggiana · Reggiana win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · abandoned

Reggiana are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Pineto 23%, draw 28%, Reggiana 49%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Pineto v ReggianaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Match timeline

Key events

PinetoMIN

Reggiana

R. ForteAssist · G. Germinario

11′

A. Pellegrino

43′

Line-ups

Pineto

Reggiana

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Pineto

Reggiana

3Days since last match3

Last match: 17 Oct · Serie C - Girone B

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Reggiana	9	+7	17
17	Pineto	9	−5	8

Pre-match prediction

First published 9 Oct 06:15 · abandoned, not graded

Pineto win23%

Draw28%

Reggiana win49%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 14:30

RoundGirone B · matchday 9

VenueMimmo Pavone-Alessandro Mariani

RefereeF. R. Luongo

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Pineto

Formation not confirmed

22 A. Tonti

52 D. Frare

13 G. Alessandretti

3 S. Ienco

2 M. Scheffer

21 L. Lombardi

8 G. Germinario

15 D. Ferrante

99 A. Pellegrino

70 R. Forte

9 G. Vigliotti

Coach · Alessandro Bruno

Substitutes

1 · C. Turi

43 · C. Colaneri

64 · F. Corradini

28 · T. D'Orazio

5 · G. Di Renzo

7 · G. Guadagni

4 · G. Nebuloso

41 · A. Asmussen

18 · M. Oliva

19 · S. Biggi

10 · M. Delle Monache

11 · A. Selvini

69 · D. Pistillo

Reggiana

Formation not confirmed

1 J. Furlan

17 L. Libutti

13 M. Battistini

43 S. Bonetti

3 A. Tripaldelli

26 M. Bertagnoli

6 L. Crisetig

19 D. Basili

90 M. Portanova

25 L. Sipos

7 M. Rover

Coach · Attilio Tesser

Substitutes

12 · F. Borriello

22 · M. Sorzi

14 · D. Quaranta

98 · T. Lepri

55 · Pasquoto Lucas

85 · A. Ezinwa

8 · K. Jonsson

80 · N. Girma

11 · M. Cavion

21 · F. Vallarelli

47 · M. Tessitori

9 · T. Henry

32 · E. Cavaliere

Our number · reggiana winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 19 Oct 10:37 · abandoned, not graded

49% The market–

Us49%

We make Reggiana a 49% chance to win. The model expects 0.9–1.5, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Pineto v Reggiana~~0.93 – 1.49

~~Form · last six in Serie C - Girone B this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 8 v 17~~17 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Reggiana win

Published at 48%, 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Pineto win	23%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Reggiana win	49%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	43%	–	–
Both teams to score	47%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	70%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	23%	–	–
Pineto or draw	51%	–	–
Pineto clean sheet	24%	–	–
Reggiana clean sheet	40%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.0%

0123450 10.4 12.1 9.7 4.9 1 7.4 13.0 8.7 4.4 2 4.0 5.6 4.1 2.0 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Pineto down, Reggiana across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,975 Serie C - Girone B matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie C - Girone B matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.9% of games this season, across 98 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Pineto at home: 0.67 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Reggiana away: 1.83 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.93 goals for Pineto, 1.49 for Reggiana. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie C - Girone B this season · since 12 Sept

PINETO

WDDLLD2–1 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 0–4 · 0–1 · 0–0

REGGIANA

DWWLLW1–1 · 4–1 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Spezia	10	+14	28
2	Ravenna	10	+10	20
3	Grosseto	10	+8	19
4	Reggiana	9	+7	17
5	Guidonia Montecelio 1937	10	+4	16
6	Livorno	10	+1	16
7	Perugia	10	−1	16
8	Pescara	10	+1	15
9	Torres	10	−1	15
10	Latina	10	0	13
11	Vado	10	0	12
12	Atalanta II	9	−3	12
13	Campobasso FC	10	−5	12
14	Forli	10	0	11
15	Ostia Mare	10	−3	9
16	Pianese	10	−4	8
17	Pineto	9	−5	8
18	Sambenedettese	10	−3	7
19	Gubbio	10	−10	7
20	Vis Pesaro	9	−10	4