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Pineto v Gubbio

Pineto

1–0Full time

Gubbio

Serie C - Girone B · FRI 23 OCT · Mimmo Pavone-Alessandro Mariani

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 22:01

Pineto 1–0 Gubbio PINETO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Pineto win~~40%

~~The market said~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.538

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.374

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Pineto win at 40%.
1′Much as we predicted: Pineto was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–32–28
1′KICK-OFF Pineto v Gubbio
22′We published Pineto at 40%. Our model now makes it 73%. 1–0 · 73–19–8
22′⚽ GOAL · 22' Pineto 1–0 Gubbio
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Pineto win: 40% at kick-off, 73% now
23′A goal for Pineto on 23′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 73–19–8
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.2 we expected. 1–0 · 74–19–7
33′🟨 YELLOW · 33' Gubbio
34′🟨 YELLOW · 34' Gubbio
35′We published Pineto at 40%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–7
45′SECOND HALF Pineto 1–0 Gubbio
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Gubbio · On: A. Signorini · Off: L. Baroncelli
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Gubbio · On: G. Rosaia · Off: M. Pinato
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Gubbio · On: A. La Mantia · Off: T. Ghirardello
47′HALF-TIME Pineto 1–0 Gubbio
56′SUBSTITUTION · 50' Pineto · On: T. D'Orazio · Off: S. Ienco
57′We published Pineto at 40%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' Pineto win: 40% at kick-off, 80% now
64′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Pineto · On: A. Selvini · Off: G. Vigliotti
64′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Pineto · On: M. Oliva · Off: G. Nebuloso
64′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Gubbio · On: L. Podda · Off: E. Meconi
70′We published Pineto at 40%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Pineto · On: A. Asmussen · Off: R. Forte
74′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Pineto · On: D. Pistillo · Off: M. Scheffer
75′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Gubbio
78′We published Pineto at 40%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Pineto win: 40% at kick-off, 90% now
81′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Pineto
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Gubbio · On: E. Baldini · Off: M. Spina
86′We published Pineto at 40%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
95′🟨 YELLOW · 90+5' Pineto
96′Full time, 1–0. We called Pineto at 40% — that one lands. 1–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Pineto 1–0 Gubbio
FTPineto 1–0 Gubbio · Pineto win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Pineto are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Pineto 40%, draw 32%, Gubbio 28%. Over 2.5 goals 36%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Pineto v GubbioBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Pineto win40%

Draw32%

Gubbio win28%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 19:30

RoundGirone B · matchday 11

VenueMimmo Pavone-Alessandro Mariani

RefereeR. Dasso

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Pineto

Gubbio

3Days since last match5

Last match: 20 Oct · Serie C - Girone B

Last match: 18 Oct · Serie C - Girone B

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
15	Pineto	10	−3	11
19	Gubbio	10	−10	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · pineto winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 21 Oct 00:12 · locked at kick-off

40% The market50%

Us40%

~~Market~~50%

We make Pineto a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Pineto v Gubbio~~1.19 – 0.96

~~Form · last six in Serie C - Girone B this season · since 16 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W0 D1 L5

~~Table places · points 11 v 7~~15 v 19

~~The market · Pineto win~~50% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Pineto win The market, margin stripped

Published at 38%, 40% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 50% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Pineto win	40%	50%	−10
Draw	32%	28%	+4
Gubbio win	28%	22%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	36%	44%	−8
Both teams to score	44%	48%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	64%	69%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	17%	24%	−7
Pineto or draw	72%	78%	−6
Pineto clean sheet	39%	–	–
Gubbio clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.2%

0123450 13.1 10.0 5.4 1 12.7 14.2 6.3 2.0 2 8.2 7.7 3.7 3 3.3 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Pineto down, Gubbio across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,976 Serie C - Girone B matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie C - Girone B matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.4% of games this season, across 99 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 5 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Pineto at home: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Gubbio away: 0.83 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.19 goals for Pineto, 0.96 for Gubbio. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 8

~~Both scored~~6 of 8

~~Last meetings~~PIN 1–2 GUB · PIN 2–1 GUB · GUB 2–0 PIN · PIN 1–0 GUB

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie C - Girone B this season · since 16 Sept

PINETO

DDLLDW1–1 · 2–2 · 0–4 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 2–0

GUBBIO

DLLLLL1–1 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 1–3 · 0–2 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Spezia	10	+14	28
2	Ravenna	10	+10	20
3	Grosseto	10	+8	19
4	Reggiana	10	+5	17
5	Guidonia Montecelio 1937	10	+4	16
6	Livorno	10	+1	16
7	Perugia	10	−1	16
8	Pescara	10	+1	15
9	Torres	10	−1	15
10	Latina	10	0	13
11	Vado	10	0	12
12	Atalanta II	9	−3	12
13	Campobasso FC	10	−5	12
14	Forli	10	0	11
15	Pineto	10	−3	11
16	Ostia Mare	10	−3	9
17	Pianese	10	−4	8
18	Sambenedettese	10	−3	7
19	Gubbio	10	−10	7
20	Vis Pesaro	9	−10	4