Pianese v Pineto prediction · Serie C - Girone B

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 16:26

Pianese 0–0 Pineto PIANESE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Pianese win~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.732

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Pianese win at 43%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Pianese 43% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 43–31–26
1′KICK-OFF Pianese v Pineto
16′A goal for Pineto on 16′. 0–0 · 41–34–25
21′🟨 YELLOW · 20' Pianese
37′THE CALL SWINGS · 37' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Pianese win 36%)
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Pianese win: 43% at kick-off, 33% now
45′SECOND HALF Pianese 0–0 Pineto
47′HALF-TIME Pianese 0–0 Pineto
51′We said Pianese at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 31%. 0–0 · 31–48–21
54′🟨 YELLOW · 54' Pianese
55′We said Pianese at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–51–20
61′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Pineto · On: M. Delle Monache · Off: R. Forte
62′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Pineto · On: A. Selvini · Off: G. Vigliotti
65′We said Pianese at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–60–16
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Pianese win: 43% at kick-off, 23% now
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Pianese · On: K. Haveri · Off: C. Martey
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Pianese · On: L. Fabrizi · Off: M. Tirelli
72′We said Pianese at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–68–13
78′We said Pianese at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–76–10
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Pianese win: 43% at kick-off, 13% now
80′We said Pianese at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 12%. 0–0 · 12–80–8
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Pineto · On: M. Oliva · Off: A. Pellegrino
83′We said Pianese at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–85–6
88′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Pineto
90′We said Pianese at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–93–3
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+1' Pianese win: 43% at kick-off, 3% now
94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+5' Pianese
95′🟨 YELLOW · 90+5' L. Fabrizi · Pianese
98′0–0 at the end. Our 43% on Pianese misses, and the record keeps it. 0–0 · 0–100–0
FTFULL TIME Pianese 0–0 Pineto
FTPianese 0–0 Pineto · Pianese win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Pianese are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Pianese 43%, draw 31%, Pineto 26%. Over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Pianese v PinetoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Pianese win43%

Draw31%

Pineto win26%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:30

RoundGirone B · matchday 10

VenueStadio Comunale

RefereeE. Eremitaggio

Line-ups

Pianese

Pineto

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Pianese

Pineto

7Days since last match13

Last match: 10 Oct · Serie C - Girone B

Last match: 4 Oct · Serie C - Girone B

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
16	Pianese	9	−4	7
17	Pineto	8	−5	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Pianese

Formation not confirmed

1 G. Astaldi

19 G. Morelli

56 L. Masetti

23 N. Pintus

37 L. Di Cosmo

27 M. Bertini

30 F. Proietto

77 C. Martey

21 M. Tirelli

10 S. Ianesi

11 L. Bellini

Coach · –

Substitutes

22 · M. Pezzolato

12 · A. Zambuto

3 · K. Haveri

74 · T. Corti

15 · M. Gorelli

5 · L. Peli

7 · M. Colombo

20 · L. Vigiani

4 · T. Casalino

29 · L. Fabrizi

14 · G. Negri

28 · E. Moscati

Pineto

Formation not confirmed

22 A. Tonti

52 D. Frare

13 G. Alessandretti

3 S. Ienco

2 M. Scheffer

21 L. Lombardi

8 G. Germinario

15 D. Ferrante

99 A. Pellegrino

70 R. Forte

9 G. Vigliotti

Coach · Alessandro Bruno

Substitutes

1 · C. Turi

43 · C. Colaneri

64 · F. Corradini

28 · T. D'Orazio

5 · G. Di Renzo

4 · G. Nebuloso

41 · A. Asmussen

18 · M. Oliva

19 · S. Biggi

10 · M. Delle Monache

11 · A. Selvini

69 · D. Pistillo

Our number · pianese winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

43% The market–

Us43%

We make Pianese a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–0.9, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Pianese v Pineto~~1.28 – 0.92

~~Form · last six in Serie C - Girone B this season · since 6 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 7 v 7~~16 v 17

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Pianese win	43%	–	–
Draw	31%	–	–
Pineto win	26%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	38%	–	–
Both teams to score	44%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	65%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	18%	–	–
Pianese or draw	74%	–	–
Pianese clean sheet	40%	–	–
Pineto clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.0%

0123450 12.6 9.1 4.8 1 13.0 14.0 5.9 2 9.0 8.1 3.7 3 3.9 3.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Pianese down, Pineto across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,966 Serie C - Girone B matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie C - Girone B matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.9% of games this season, across 89 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.80 goals a meeting; 1 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Pianese at home: 0.50 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Pineto away: 0.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.28 goals for Pianese, 0.92 for Pineto. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.80

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 5

~~Both scored~~1 of 5

~~Last meetings~~PIA 1–0 PIN · PIN 1–1 PIA · PIN 0–1 PIA · PIA 4–0 PIN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie C - Girone B this season · since 6 Sept

PIANESE

DLDLWD0–0 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 2–1 · 0–0

PINETO

LWDDLL1–2 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 0–4 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Spezia	9	+13	25
2	Ravenna	9	+11	20
3	Grosseto	10	+8	19
4	Livorno	10	+1	16
5	Torres	9	+1	15
6	Reggiana	8	+5	14
7	Guidonia Montecelio 1937	9	+3	13
8	Perugia	9	−5	13
9	Campobasso FC	9	−1	12
10	Pescara	9	−1	12
11	Forli	9	+1	11
12	Vado	9	0	11
13	Latina	9	−1	10
14	Ostia Mare	9	−1	9
15	Atalanta II	8	−5	9
16	Pianese	9	−4	7
17	Pineto	8	−5	7
18	Gubbio	9	−8	7
19	Sambenedettese	9	−3	6
20	Vis Pesaro	8	−9	4