Pescara v Ostia Mare prediction · Serie C

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 19:02

Pescara 2–0 Ostia Mare PESCARA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Pescara win~~47%

~~The market said~~57%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.426

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.275

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Pescara win at 47%.
1′Much as we predicted: Pescara was 47% before kick-off and our model makes it 47% now. 0–0 · 47–28–25
1′KICK-OFF Pescara v Ostia Mare
26′🟨 YELLOW · 26' Ostia Mare
27′🟨 YELLOW · 26' Pescara
29′A red card for Ostia Mare on 29′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–0 · 42–34–24
29′🟥 RED CARD · 29' Ostia Mare
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Pescara win: 47% at kick-off, 37% now
45′SECOND HALF Pescara 1–0 Ostia Mare
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+1' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Pescara win 36%)
47′We published Pescara at 47%. Our model now makes it 78%. 1–0 · 78–17–5
47′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 78–17–5
47′Pescara find the net on 45′. 1–0. 1–0 · 78–17–5
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Pescara 1–0 Ostia Mare
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Pescara win: 47% at kick-off, 78% now
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Pescara win is now our likeliest result at 78% (was Draw 17%)
49′HALF-TIME Pescara 1–0 Ostia Mare
53′We published Pescara at 47%. Our model now makes it 96%. 2–0 · 96–4–1
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Pescara 2–0 Ostia Mare
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Pescara win: 47% at kick-off, 96% now
56′A goal for Pescara on 54′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 96–3–0
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Pescara win: 47% at kick-off, 97% now
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Ostia Mare · On: I. Badje · Off: R. Tonin
61′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Ostia Mare · On: I. Wade · Off: F. Tosku
67′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Pescara
69′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Pescara · On: L. Graziani · Off: F. Guccione
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Pescara · On: M. Gatto · Off: B. Erradi
78′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Ostia Mare · On: M. Spinosa · Off: P. Giordani Corrected
79′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Ostia Mare · On: M. Spinosa · Off: D. Buono
81′We published Pescara at 47%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Pescara · On: R. Inglese · Off: G. Parigi
83′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Pescara · On: R. Inglese · Off: G. Parigi
83′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Pescara · On: D. Merola · Off: M. D'Ausilio
84′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Pescara · On: P. Vitali · Off: L. Meazzi
87′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Ostia Mare
90′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Ostia Mare · On: M. Orfano · Off: D. Greco
94′Full time, 2–0. We called Pescara at 47% — that one lands. 2–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Pescara 2–0 Ostia Mare
FTPescara 2–0 Ostia Mare · Pescara win: right · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Pescara are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Pescara 47%, draw 28%, Ostia Mare 25%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Pescara v Ostia MareBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Pescara win47%

Draw28%

Ostia Mare win25%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 16:30

RoundGirone B · matchday 10

VenueStadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia

RefereeM. Nigro

Line-ups

Pescara

Ostia Mare

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Pescara

Ostia Mare

6Days since last match8

Last match: 12 Oct · Serie C - Girone B

Last match: 10 Oct · Serie C - Girone B

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Pescara	9	−1	12
14	Ostia Mare	9	−1	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Pescara

Formation not confirmed

90 V. Fiorillo

20 F. Donati

2 R. Capellini

23 F. Pellacani

32 M. Motta

14 L. Valzania

24 F. Guccione

27 B. Erradi

7 L. Meazzi

97 G. Parigi

19 M. D'Ausilio

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · E. Ujkaj

3 · G. Letizia

18 · M. Milan

15 · G. Altare

33 · F. Nardin

8 · L. Graziani

17 · M. Gatto

9 · R. Inglese

49 · M. Zeppieri

39 · L. Morazzini

10 · D. Merola

37 · P. Vitali

21 · A. Ferraris

Ostia Mare

Formation not confirmed

1 F. Vertua

4 D. Piroli

13 R. Brosco

5 P. Giordani

29 M. Cotali

77 F. Tosku

8 D. Greco

6 D. Buono

71 F. Carbone

9 R. Tonin

17 F. D'Andrea

Coach · –

Substitutes

22 · A. Morlupo

12 · A. Fabiano

66 · A. Castaldo

24 · E. Tesauro

3 · M. Orfano

23 · M. Spinosa

18 · N. Felici

14 · F. Galastri

11 · V. Parigini

19 · I. Wade

10 · I. Badje

Our number · pescara winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

47% The market57%

Us47%

~~Market~~57%

We make Pescara a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 57%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Pescara v Ostia Mare~~1.51 – 1.04

~~Form · last six in Serie C - Girone B this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 12 v 9~~11 v 14

~~The market · Pescara win~~57% · ours 47%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Pescara win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 57% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Pescara win	47%	57%	−10
Draw	28%	24%	+4
Ostia Mare win	25%	18%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	46%	55%	−9
Both teams to score	51%	55%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	73%	77%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	25%	35%	−10
Pescara or draw	75%	82%	−7
Pescara clean sheet	36%	–	–
Ostia Mare clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.1%

0123450 9.4 7.2 4.3 1 10.7 13.1 6.2 2.2 2 8.8 8.9 4.6 3 4.5 4.5 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Pescara down, Ostia Mare across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,970 Serie C - Girone B matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie C - Girone B matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.2% of games this season, across 93 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Pescara at home: 1.33 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Ostia Mare away: 1.40 scored, 1.20 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

1.51 goals for Pescara, 1.04 for Ostia Mare. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie C - Girone B this season · since 12 Sept

PESCARA

LDWLWD1–2 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 1–1

OSTIA MARE

LLWDDD2–3 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Spezia	9	+13	25
2	Ravenna	9	+11	20
3	Grosseto	10	+8	19
4	Reggiana	9	+7	17
5	Guidonia Montecelio 1937	10	+4	16
6	Livorno	10	+1	16
7	Perugia	10	−1	16
8	Torres	10	−1	15
9	Latina	10	0	13
10	Vado	10	0	12
11	Pescara	9	−1	12
12	Campobasso FC	10	−5	12
13	Forli	10	0	11
14	Ostia Mare	9	−1	9
15	Atalanta II	8	−5	9
16	Pianese	10	−4	8
17	Pineto	9	−5	8
18	Sambenedettese	10	−3	7
19	Gubbio	9	−8	7
20	Vis Pesaro	9	−10	4