Pescara v Guidonia Montecelio 1937 prediction · Serie C

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 22:08

Pescara 1–1 Guidonia Montecelio 1937 PESCARA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Pescara win~~45%

~~The market said~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.764

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.878

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 36 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Pescara win at 45%.
0′Much as we predicted: Pescara was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 47% now. 0–0 · 47–27–26
6′Guidonia Montecelio 1937 find the net on 7′. 0–1. 0–1 · 21–25–54
7′THE CALL SWINGS · 7' Guidonia Montecelio 1937 win is now our likeliest result at 54% (was Pescara win 21%)
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 7' Pescara win: 45% at kick-off, 21% now
8′Guidonia Montecelio 1937 find the net on 7′. 0–1. 0–1 · 20–25–55
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 8' Pescara win: 45% at kick-off, 21% now
8′THE CALL SWINGS · 8' Guidonia Montecelio 1937 win is now our likeliest result at 54% (was Pescara win 21%)
9′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 9' Pescara win: 45% at kick-off, 20% now
9′THE CALL SWINGS · 9' Guidonia Montecelio 1937 win is now our likeliest result at 55% (was Pescara win 20%)
11′Much as we predicted: Pescara was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 45–30–26
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 11' Pescara win: 45% at kick-off, 45% now
11′THE CALL SWINGS · 11' Pescara win is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Guidonia Montecelio 1937 win 26%)
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 11' Pescara win: 45% at kick-off, 21% now
11′THE CALL SWINGS · 11' Guidonia Montecelio 1937 win is now our likeliest result at 54% (was Pescara win 21%)
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 12' Pescara win: 45% at kick-off, 21% now
12′THE CALL SWINGS · 12' Guidonia Montecelio 1937 win is now our likeliest result at 54% (was Pescara win 21%)
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 12' Pescara win: 45% at kick-off, 45% now
12′THE CALL SWINGS · 12' Pescara win is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Guidonia Montecelio 1937 win 26%)
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 13' Pescara win: 45% at kick-off, 45% now
13′THE CALL SWINGS · 13' Pescara win is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Guidonia Montecelio 1937 win 26%)
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 13' Pescara win: 45% at kick-off, 21% now
13′THE CALL SWINGS · 13' Guidonia Montecelio 1937 win is now our likeliest result at 54% (was Pescara win 21%)
35′SUBSTITUTION · 35' Pescara · On: M. D'Ausilio · Off: A. Ferraris
45′SECOND HALF Pescara 0–0 Guidonia Montecelio 1937
45′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Pescara · On: M. Motta · Off: G. Letizia
49′🟨 YELLOW · 49' Guidonia Montecelio 1937
49′SUBSTITUTION · 34' Pescara · On: B. Erradi · Off: J. Sardo
49′SUBSTITUTION · 35' Pescara · On: M. D'Ausilio · Off: A. Ferraris
60′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Guidonia Montecelio 1937
62′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Guidonia Montecelio 1937
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Guidonia Montecelio 1937 · On: D. Zappella · Off: M. Tonetto
71′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Pescara
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Pescara 1–0 Guidonia Montecelio 1937
77′⚽ GOAL · 78' Pescara 1–0 Guidonia Montecelio 1937
82′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Guidonia Montecelio 1937 · On: P. Giannotti · Off: O. Viteritti
82′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Guidonia Montecelio 1937 · On: D. Sannipoli · Off: A. Murgia
83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Pescara · On: G. Altare · Off: F. Guccione
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Pescara 1–1 Guidonia Montecelio 1937 · G. Parigi
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Pescara 1–1 Guidonia Montecelio 1937
FTFULL TIME Pescara 1–1 Guidonia Montecelio 1937
FTPescara 1–1 Guidonia Montecelio 1937 · Pescara win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with a pass — 7 days or 30 days.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

Get a pass ›

Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 19:13 · locked at kick-off

Pescara win45%

Draw30%

Guidonia Montecelio 1937 win25%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 19:30

VenueStadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia

RefereeA. Zoppi

Line-ups

Pescara

Guidonia Montecelio 1937

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Pescara

Guidonia Montecelio 1937

9Days since last match8

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Guidonia Montecelio 1937	8	+3	12
12	Pescara	8	−1	11

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Pescara

Formation not confirmed

90 V. Fiorillo

20 F. Donati

33 F. Nardin

23 F. Pellacani

3 G. Letizia

14 L. Valzania

24 F. Guccione

44 J. Sardo

37 P. Vitali

97 G. Parigi

21 A. Ferraris

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · E. Ujkaj

40 · L. Doronzo

18 · M. Milan

2 · R. Capellini

15 · G. Altare

32 · M. Motta

27 · B. Erradi

7 · L. Meazzi

19 · M. D'Ausilio

8 · L. Graziani

17 · M. Gatto

9 · R. Inglese

49 · M. Zeppieri

39 · L. Morazzini

10 · D. Merola

Guidonia Montecelio 1937

Formation not confirmed

25 G. Drago

33 D. Borghini

2 S. Esempio

26 R. Baroni

11 O. Viteritti

23 A. Murgia

4 E. Celeghin

5 V. Mastrantonio

21 M. Tonetto

10 A. Spavone

30 F. Ferrari

Coach · Ciro Ginestra

Substitutes

96 · G. Stellato

16 · L. Front

77 · D. Zappella

3 · A. Malomo

38 · P. Frascatore

17 · S. Tascone

8 · A. Errico

20 · P. Giannotti

7 · D. Sannipoli

18 · C. D'Urso

14 · S. Santoro

9 · E. Vertainen

Our number · pescara winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 12 Oct 19:13 · locked at kick-off

45% The market53%

Us45%

~~Market~~53%

We make Pescara a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · pescara win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 54% to 53% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Pescara win	45%	53%	−7
Draw	30%	26%	+4
Guidonia Montecelio 1937 win	25%	22%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	41%	53%	−12
Both teams to score	46%	54%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	68%	75%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	21%	32%	−11
Pescara or draw	75%	78%	−3
Pescara clean sheet	39%	–	–
Guidonia Montecelio 1937 clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.6%

0123450 11.3 8.3 4.5 1 12.3 13.6 5.9 2 9.1 8.5 4.0 3 4.2 3.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Pescara down, Guidonia Montecelio 1937 across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,963 Serie C - Girone B matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie C - Girone B matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.3% of games this season, across 86 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting between these two, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Pescara at home: 1.50 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Guidonia Montecelio 1937 away: 0.83 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.38 goals for Pescara, 0.95 for Guidonia Montecelio 1937. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No meetings between these two in Serie C - Girone B since 2021. Cup ties and meetings in other competitions are not counted here.

Form · last six in Serie C - Girone B

PESCARA

DLDWLW0–0 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 1–0

GUIDONIA MONTECELIO 1937

WDDDLW1–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Spezia	9	+13	25
2	Ravenna	9	+11	20
3	Grosseto	9	+8	18
4	Livorno	9	+1	15
5	Torres	9	+1	15
6	Reggiana	8	+5	14
7	Perugia	9	−5	13
8	Guidonia Montecelio 1937	8	+3	12
9	Campobasso FC	9	−1	12
10	Forli	9	+1	11
11	Vado	9	0	11
12	Pescara	8	−1	11
13	Ostia Mare	9	−1	9
14	Atalanta II	7	−3	9
15	Latina	8	−3	7
16	Pianese	9	−4	7
17	Pineto	8	−5	7
18	Gubbio	9	−8	7
19	Sambenedettese	9	−3	6
20	Vis Pesaro	8	−9	4