Perugia v Vado prediction · Serie C - Girone B

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Perugia 0–2 Vado PERUGIA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Perugia win~~40%

~~The market said~~54%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.767

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.015

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Perugia win at 40%.
0′Little has changed for our model: Perugia 40% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 41–29–30
0′KICK-OFF Perugia v Vado
3′Little has changed for our model: Perugia 40% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 41–30–30
3′🟨 YELLOW · 4' Perugia
5′🟥 RED CARD · 5' Perugia
5′🟥 RED CARD · 6' Perugia
13′SUBSTITUTION · 10' Perugia · On: G. Renault · Off: A. Sabbatani
18′Perugia are down to ten from 6′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–0 · 38–33–28
24′Perugia are down to ten from 6′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–0 · 37–35–28
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Perugia win 32%)
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Perugia win is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Draw 33%)
45′SECOND HALF Perugia 0–0 Vado
45′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Vado · On: M. Candiano · Off: M. De Rinaldis
45′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Vado · On: F. Rosa · Off: F. Saiani
50′🟨 YELLOW · 51' Perugia
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Perugia 0–1 Vado
51′⚽ GOAL · 52' Perugia 0–1 Vado
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Perugia 0–2 Vado · M. Candiano
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Perugia 0–2 Vado
59′⚽ GOAL · 58' Perugia 0–2 Vado · I. Cernigoi (assist F. Rosa)
59′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Perugia · On: G. Carriero · Off: R. Ladinetti
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Perugia · On: A. Sam · Off: A. Tozzuolo
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Perugia · On: L. Canotto · Off: P. van Amersfoort
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Perugia · On: S. Seha · Off: A. Cisco
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Vado · On: M. Lazzarini · Off: D. Hergheligiu
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Vado · On: C. Carlini · Off: M. Saltarelli
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Vado · On: L. Lischetti · Off: I. Cernigoi
88′PENALTY MISSED · 89' Perugia
FTFULL TIME Perugia 0–2 Vado
FTPerugia 0–2 Vado · Perugia win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Perugia win40%

Draw31%

Vado win29%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 16:30

VenueStadio Renato Curi

RefereeA. Vincenzi

Line-ups

Perugia

Vado

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Perugia

Vado

8Days since last match8

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Perugia	8	−3	13
14	Vado	8	−2	8

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Perugia

Formation not confirmed

1 R. Zelezny

7 A. Cisco

4 A. Tozzuolo

28 D. Riccardi

15 D. Papazov

11 M. Borsoi

77 E. Kabashi

8 R. Ladinetti

33 C. Langella

30 P. van Amersfoort

9 A. Sabbatani

Coach · Aimo Diana

Substitutes

12 · L. Moro

55 · S. Strappini

39 · G. Cavallini

5 · D. Stramaccioni

14 · E. Quirini

34 · A. Sam

29 · G. Renault

31 · G. Conti

19 · C. Dottori

20 · G. Carriero

26 · S. Seha

10 · L. Canotto

Vado

Formation not confirmed

22 A. Bellocci

31 M. Ferro

14 F. Gulinelli

4 M. Viti

5 M. Saltarelli

29 F. Saiani

28 Z. Hamlili

27 D. Hergheligiu

20 M. De Rinaldis

95 I. Cernigoi

11 D. Vita

Coach · –

Substitutes

16 · A. Sala

1 · S. Calvani

3 · C. Carlini

81 · N. Agostino

25 · M. Candiano

17 · M. Lazzarini

80 · K. Bruno

10 · J. Simonetta

97 · F. Rosa

9 · L. Lischetti

Our number · perugia winPublished 11 Oct 16:29

40% The market54%

Us40%

~~Market~~54%

We make Perugia a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are 14 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · perugia win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 59% to 54% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Perugia win	40%	54%	−14
Draw	31%	27%	+5
Vado win	29%	19%	+9
Over 2.5 goals	37%	44%	−7
Both teams to score	44%	46%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	64%	68%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	18%	24%	−6
Perugia or draw	71%	81%	−9
Perugia clean sheet	38%	–	–
Vado clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.1%

0123450 12.9 10.0 5.4 1 12.6 14.1 6.3 2.1 2 8.1 7.7 3.8 3 3.3 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Perugia down, Vado across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,958 Serie C - Girone B matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie C - Girone B matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.7% of games this season, across 81 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Perugia at home: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Vado away: 0.75 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

1.20 goals for Perugia, 0.97 for Vado. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Serie C - Girone B

PERUGIA

WLLLWW2–1 · 0–3 · 0–3 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 3–1

VADO

LLLLDW1–3 · 0–1 · 2–3 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Spezia	9	+13	25
2	Grosseto	9	+8	18
3	Ravenna	8	+9	17
4	Reggiana	8	+5	14
5	Livorno	8	+1	14
6	Perugia	8	−3	13
7	Guidonia Montecelio 1937	8	+3	12
8	Campobasso FC	8	+1	12
9	Torres	8	0	12
10	Pescara	8	−1	11
11	Forli	8	+1	10
12	Ostia Mare	9	−1	9
13	Atalanta II	6	−2	9
14	Vado	8	−2	8
15	Pianese	9	−4	7
16	Pineto	8	−5	7
17	Gubbio	9	−8	7
18	Latina	7	−3	6
19	Sambenedettese	8	−3	5
20	Vis Pesaro	8	−9	4