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Perugia v Pescara

Perugia

1–2Full time

Pescara

Serie C - Girone B · FRI 23 OCT · Stadio Renato Curi

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 22:01

Perugia 1–2 Pescara PERUGIA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Perugia win~~36%

~~The market said~~34%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.625

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.587

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 31 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Perugia win at 36%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Perugia 36% before kick-off, 36% now. 0–0 · 36–29–35
1′KICK-OFF Perugia v Pescara
2′Perugia find the net on 2′. 1–0. 1–0 · 65–19–16
2′We said Perugia at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 65%. 1–0 · 65–19–16
2′⚽ GOAL · 2' Perugia 1–0 Pescara
2′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 2' Perugia win: 36% at kick-off, 65% now
5′Perugia ahead on 1′ through G. Carriero. 1–0. 1–0 · 65–20–16
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Perugia win: 36% at kick-off, 66% now
26′🟨 YELLOW · 26' Perugia
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 1–0 · 68–21–11
41′We said Perugia at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 1–0 · 70–21–9
45′SECOND HALF Perugia 1–0 Pescara
46′HALF-TIME Perugia 1–0 Pescara
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Perugia 1–1 Pescara
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Perugia win: 36% at kick-off, 29% now
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Perugia win 71%)
48′A goal for Pescara on 48′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 29–43–29
51′We said Perugia at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 7%. 1–2 · 7–21–72
51′3 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 7–21–72
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Perugia 1–2 Pescara
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Perugia win: 36% at kick-off, 7% now
51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Pescara win is now our likeliest result at 72% (was Draw 44%)
52′Pescara score on 51′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 7–21–73
52′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Pescara · On: D. Merola · Off: L. Meazzi
53′🟨 YELLOW · 52' Pescara
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Perugia win: 36% at kick-off, 6% now
53′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Perugia
59′🟨 YELLOW · 59' Pescara
61′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Perugia · On: C. Langella · Off: E. Kabashi
61′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Perugia · On: A. Sabbatani · Off: L. Canotto
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Perugia · On: D. Papazov · Off: E. Quirini
62′We said Perugia at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–2 · 4–19–76
65′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Perugia
66′🟨 YELLOW · 52' D. Merola · Pescara
69′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Perugia
70′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Perugia · On: S. Seha · Off: R. Ladinetti
70′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Perugia · On: M. Cortesi · Off: P. van Amersfoort
73′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Pescara · On: G. Letizia · Off: M. Motta
88′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Pescara · On: P. Vitali · Off: D. Merola
94′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Pescara · On: M. Gatto · Off: L. Graziani
95′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' Pescara · On: M. Milan · Off: M. D'Ausilio
97′1–2 at the end. Our 36% on Perugia misses, and the record keeps it. 1–2 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Perugia 1–2 Pescara
FTPerugia 1–2 Pescara · Perugia win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Perugia just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Perugia 36%, draw 29%, Pescara 36%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Perugia v PescaraBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Perugia win36%

Draw29%

Pescara win36%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 19:30

RoundGirone B · matchday 11

VenueStadio Renato Curi

RefereeD. Mirabella

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Perugia

Pescara

5Days since last match5

Last match: 18 Oct · Serie C - Girone B

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Perugia	10	−1	16
8	Pescara	10	+1	15

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · perugia winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 19 Oct 00:15 · locked at kick-off

36% The market34%

Us36%

~~Market~~34%

We make Perugia a 36% chance to win. The market has them at 34%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Perugia v Pescara~~1.28 – 1.28

~~Form · last six in Serie C - Girone B this season · since 16 Sept~~W3 D0 L3 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 16 v 15~~7 v 8

~~The market · Perugia win~~34% · ours 36%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Perugia win The market, margin stripped

Published at 34%, 36% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 34% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Perugia win	36%	34%	+2
Draw	29%	28%	+1
Pescara win	36%	38%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	47%	53%	−6
Both teams to score	52%	57%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	73%	75%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	26%	32%	−6
Perugia or draw	64%	62%	+2
Perugia clean sheet	29%	–	–
Pescara clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.5%

0123450 9.3 8.9 6.3 2.7 1 8.9 13.5 7.8 3.4 2 6.4 7.9 5.0 2.1 3 2.7 3.4 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Perugia down, Pescara across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,976 Serie C - Girone B matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie C - Girone B matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.4% of games this season, across 99 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 0.75 goals a meeting; 0 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Perugia at home: 0.67 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Pescara away: 1.50 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.28 goals for Perugia, 1.28 for Pescara. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~0.75

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~PER 0–0 PES · PES 0–0 PER · PES 0–1 PER · PER 1–1 PES

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie C - Girone B this season · since 16 Sept

PERUGIA

LLWWLW0–3 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 3–1 · 0–2 · 5–1

PESCARA

DWLWDW1–1 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Spezia	10	+14	28
2	Ravenna	10	+10	20
3	Grosseto	10	+8	19
4	Reggiana	10	+5	17
5	Guidonia Montecelio 1937	10	+4	16
6	Livorno	10	+1	16
7	Perugia	10	−1	16
8	Pescara	10	+1	15
9	Torres	10	−1	15
10	Latina	10	0	13
11	Vado	10	0	12
12	Atalanta II	9	−3	12
13	Campobasso FC	10	−5	12
14	Forli	10	0	11
15	Pineto	10	−3	11
16	Ostia Mare	10	−3	9
17	Pianese	10	−4	8
18	Sambenedettese	10	−3	7
19	Gubbio	10	−10	7
20	Vis Pesaro	9	−10	4