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Ostia Mare v Vado

Ostia Mare

1–2Full time

Vado

Serie C - Girone B · FRI 23 OCT · Stadio Pasquale Giannattasio

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 22:01

Ostia Mare 1–2 Vado OSTIA MARE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ostia Mare win~~38%

~~The market said~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.719

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.841

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 34 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ostia Mare win at 38%.
1′Much as we predicted: Ostia Mare was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 38–32–31
1′KICK-OFF Ostia Mare v Vado
31′THE CALL SWINGS · 31' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Ostia Mare win 35%)
45′SECOND HALF Ostia Mare 0–0 Vado
47′We published Ostia Mare at 38%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–6
47′HALF-TIME Ostia Mare 0–0 Vado
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Ostia Mare 1–0 Vado
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Ostia Mare win: 38% at kick-off, 75% now
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Ostia Mare win is now our likeliest result at 75% (was Draw 46%)
48′Goals are coming at about the 2.2 we expected. 1–0 · 75–19–5
48′Ostia Mare score on 48′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 75–19–5
50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Ostia Mare · On: E. Tesauro · Off: N. Felici
51′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Ostia Mare · On: R. Tonin · Off: P. Giordani
52′GOAL DISALLOWED · 52' Ostia Mare
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Ostia Mare win: 38% at kick-off, 28% now
52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Draw is now our likeliest result at 49% (was Ostia Mare win 76%)
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Ostia Mare 0–1 Vado
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Ostia Mare win: 38% at kick-off, 6% now
53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Vado win is now our likeliest result at 73% (was Draw 50%)
54′PENALTY MISSED · 54' Vado
60′We said Ostia Mare at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–76
63′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Ostia Mare
63′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Vado · On: L. Piana · Off: M. Viti
63′🟨 YELLOW · 63' I. Badje · Ostia Mare
64′🟨 YELLOW · 52' D. Piroli · Ostia Mare
64′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Ostia Mare · On: I. Wade · Off: F. Carbone
68′We said Ostia Mare at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 20%. 1–1 · 20–63–17
68′Ostia Mare find the net on 68′. 1–1. 1–1 · 20–63–17
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Ostia Mare 1–1 Vado
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Ostia Mare win: 38% at kick-off, 20% now
68′THE CALL SWINGS · 68' Draw is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Vado win 80%)
69′We said Ostia Mare at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–64–17
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Vado · On: Z. Hamlili · Off: M. De Rinaldis
76′We said Ostia Mare at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–73–12
80′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Ostia Mare · On: D. Buono · Off: I. Badje
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Ostia Mare win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
85′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.2 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 0–6–94
85′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Vado · On: M. Candiano · Off: L. Piana
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Ostia Mare 1–2 Vado
85′THE CALL SWINGS · 85' Vado win is now our likeliest result at 94% (was Draw 88%)
85′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Vado · On: L. Lischetti · Off: A. Ghezzi
86′A goal for Vado on 86′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 0–6–94
90′M. Ferro scores for Vado on 85′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 0–4–96
93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' Vado
93′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Ostia Mare · On: F. Tosku · Off: F. Casolari
102′1–2 after extra time. Our 38% on Ostia Mare is graded on the score after ninety minutes. 1–2 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Ostia Mare 1–2 Vado
FTOstia Mare 1–2 Vado · Ostia Mare win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ostia Mare are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ostia Mare 38%, draw 31%, Vado 31%. Over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Ostia Mare v VadoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Ostia Mare win38%

Draw31%

Vado win31%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 19:30

RoundGirone B · matchday 11

VenueStadio Pasquale Giannattasio

RefereeJ. Gallorini

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ostia Mare

Vado

5Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · Serie C - Girone B

Last match: 17 Oct · Serie C - Girone B

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Vado	10	0	12
16	Ostia Mare	10	−3	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ostia mare winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 19 Oct 00:15 · locked at kick-off

38% The market47%

Us38%

~~Market~~47%

We make Ostia Mare a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ostia Mare v Vado~~1.17 – 1.03

~~Form · last six in Serie C - Girone B this season · since 16 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 9 v 12~~16 v 11

~~The market · Ostia Mare win~~47% · ours 38%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Ostia Mare win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ostia Mare win	38%	47%	−9
Draw	31%	28%	+3
Vado win	31%	26%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	38%	50%	−12
Both teams to score	45%	54%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	65%	73%	−8
Over 3.5 goals	18%	29%	−11
Ostia Mare or draw	69%	74%	−5
Ostia Mare clean sheet	36%	–	–
Vado clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.3%

0123450 12.6 10.3 5.9 2.1 1 11.8 14.3 6.7 2.3 2 7.5 7.6 3.9 3 3.0 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ostia Mare down, Vado across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,976 Serie C - Girone B matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie C - Girone B matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.4% of games this season, across 99 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Ostia Mare at home: 0.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 4). Vado away: 1.00 scored, 1.20 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

1.17 goals for Ostia Mare, 1.03 for Vado. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie C - Girone B this season · since 16 Sept

OSTIA MARE

LWDDDL0–1 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 0–2

VADO

LLDWWD2–3 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Spezia	10	+14	28
2	Ravenna	10	+10	20
3	Grosseto	10	+8	19
4	Reggiana	10	+5	17
5	Guidonia Montecelio 1937	10	+4	16
6	Livorno	10	+1	16
7	Perugia	10	−1	16
8	Pescara	10	+1	15
9	Torres	10	−1	15
10	Latina	10	0	13
11	Vado	10	0	12
12	Atalanta II	9	−3	12
13	Campobasso FC	10	−5	12
14	Forli	10	0	11
15	Pineto	10	−3	11
16	Ostia Mare	10	−3	9
17	Pianese	10	−4	8
18	Sambenedettese	10	−3	7
19	Gubbio	10	−10	7
20	Vis Pesaro	9	−10	4