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Ostia Mare v Pianese

Ostia Mare

0–0Full time

Pianese

Serie C - Girone B · SAT 10 OCT · Stadio Pasquale Giannattasio

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 19:03

Ostia Mare 0–0 Pianese OSTIA MARE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ostia Mare win~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.719

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ostia Mare win at 39%.
0′Much as we predicted: Ostia Mare was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–29–31
0′KICK-OFF Ostia Mare v Pianese
3′Much as we predicted: Ostia Mare was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–29–31
45′HALF-TIME Ostia Mare 0–0 Pianese
45′SECOND HALF Ostia Mare 0–0 Pianese
45′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Ostia Mare · On: E. Tesauro · Off: M. Vagnoni
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Ostia Mare · On: E. Tesauro · Off: M. Vagnoni
60′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Pianese
60′🟨 YELLOW · 61' G. Morelli · Pianese
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Pianese · On: K. Haveri · Off: G. Morelli
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Pianese · On: L. Masetti · Off: M. Gorelli
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Pianese · On: T. Casalino · Off: C. Martey
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Ostia Mare · On: N. Felici · Off: F. Carbone
88′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Pianese · On: G. Negri · Off: M. Tirelli
89′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Ostia Mare
92′SUBSTITUTION · 92' Ostia Mare · On: I. Wade · Off: D. Greco
FTFULL TIME Ostia Mare 0–0 Pianese
FTOstia Mare 0–0 Pianese · Ostia Mare win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Ostia Mare win39%

Draw31%

Pianese win30%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 16:30

Venue · Stadio Pasquale Giannattasio

Referee · V. Teghille

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Ostia Mare

Formation not confirmed

1 F. Vertua

27 M. Vagnoni

13 R. Brosco

5 P. Giordani

4 D. Piroli

77 F. Tosku

32 F. Casolari

8 D. Greco

71 F. Carbone

9 R. Tonin

17 F. D'Andrea

Coach · –

Substitutes

22 · A. Morlupo

12 · A. Fabiano

66 · A. Castaldo

24 · E. Tesauro

3 · M. Orfano

16 · M. Gerbaudo

23 · M. Spinosa

30 · G. Donsah

18 · N. Felici

14 · F. Galastri

11 · V. Parigini

19 · I. Wade

10 · I. Badje

Pianese

Formation not confirmed

1 G. Astaldi

19 G. Morelli

15 M. Gorelli

23 N. Pintus

37 L. Di Cosmo

27 M. Bertini

30 F. Proietto

77 C. Martey

21 M. Tirelli

10 S. Ianesi

11 L. Bellini

Coach · –

Substitutes

22 · M. Pezzolato

12 · A. Zambuto

3 · K. Haveri

74 · T. Corti

56 · L. Masetti

5 · L. Peli

7 · M. Colombo

20 · L. Vigiani

4 · T. Casalino

29 · L. Fabrizi

14 · G. Negri

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Ostia Mare

Formation not confirmed

1 F. Vertua

27 M. Vagnoni

13 R. Brosco

5 P. Giordani

4 D. Piroli

77 F. Tosku

32 F. Casolari

8 D. Greco

71 F. Carbone

9 R. Tonin

17 F. D'Andrea

Coach · –

Substitutes

22 · A. Morlupo

12 · A. Fabiano

66 · A. Castaldo

24 · E. Tesauro

3 · M. Orfano

16 · M. Gerbaudo

23 · M. Spinosa

30 · G. Donsah

18 · N. Felici

14 · F. Galastri

11 · V. Parigini

19 · I. Wade

10 · I. Badje

Pianese

Formation not confirmed

1 G. Astaldi

19 G. Morelli

15 M. Gorelli

23 N. Pintus

37 L. Di Cosmo

27 M. Bertini

30 F. Proietto

77 C. Martey

21 M. Tirelli

10 S. Ianesi

11 L. Bellini

Coach · –

Substitutes

22 · M. Pezzolato

12 · A. Zambuto

3 · K. Haveri

74 · T. Corti

56 · L. Masetti

5 · L. Peli

7 · M. Colombo

20 · L. Vigiani

4 · T. Casalino

29 · L. Fabrizi

14 · G. Negri

Our number · ostia mare winPublished 10 Oct 16:37

39% The market–

Us39%

We make Ostia Mare a 39% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ostia Mare win	39%	–	–
Draw	31%	–	–
Pianese win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	38%	–	–
Both teams to score	45%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	66%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	19%	–	–
Ostia Mare or draw	70%	–	–
Ostia Mare clean sheet	37%	–	–
Pianese clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.1%

0123450 12.3 10.0 5.6 1 12.0 14.1 6.6 2.3 2 7.8 7.8 4.0 3 3.2 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ostia Mare down, Pianese across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,955 Serie C - Girone B matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie C - Girone B matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.2% of games this season, across 78 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Ostia Mare at home: 0.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 3). Pianese away: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.20 goals for Ostia Mare, 1.02 for Pianese. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Serie C - Girone B

OSTIA MARE

WLLWDD2–1 · 2–3 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 1–1

PIANESE

LDLDLW0–1 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Spezia	8	+11	22
2	Ravenna	8	+9	17
3	Grosseto	8	+7	15
4	Reggiana	8	+5	14
5	Livorno	8	+1	14
6	Perugia	8	−3	13
7	Guidonia Montecelio 1937	8	+3	12
8	Campobasso FC	8	+1	12
9	Torres	8	0	12
10	Pescara	8	−1	11
11	Forli	8	+1	10
12	Atalanta II	6	−2	9
13	Ostia Mare	8	−1	8
14	Vado	8	−2	8
15	Pineto	8	−5	7
16	Gubbio	8	−6	7
17	Latina	7	−3	6
18	Pianese	8	−4	6
19	Sambenedettese	8	−3	5
20	Vis Pesaro	7	−8	4