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Livorno v Grosseto

Livorno
4–4Full time
Grosseto

Serie C - Girone B · FRI 16 OCT · Stadio Armando Picchi

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 22:01
Livorno 4–4 Grosseto GROSSETO WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Grosseto win40%
The market said26%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.782
The market’s Brier score0.805

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay28 notes · 53 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Grosseto win at 40%.
  2. 1′KICK-OFF Livorno v Grosseto
  3. 2′Little has changed for our model: Grosseto 40% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 33–26–41
  4. 3′We said Grosseto at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–0 · 59–22–19
  5. 3′⚽ GOAL · 3' Livorno 1–0 Grosseto
  6. 3′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 3' Grosseto win: 40% at kick-off, 19% now
  7. 3′THE CALL SWINGS · 3' Livorno win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Grosseto win 19%)
  8. 4′Livorno score on 3′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 59–22–19
  9. 7′⚽ GOAL · 7' Livorno 1–1 Grosseto
  10. 7′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 7' Grosseto win: 40% at kick-off, 40% now
  11. 7′THE CALL SWINGS · 7' Grosseto win is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Livorno win 33%)
  12. 8′Grosseto find the net on 8′. 1–1. 1–1 · 33–27–40
  13. 9′Grosseto level it on 7′ through L. Sabattini. 1–1. 1–1 · 33–28–40
  14. 12′⚽ GOAL · 12' Livorno 2–1 Grosseto
  15. 12′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 12' Grosseto win: 40% at kick-off, 17% now
  16. 12′THE CALL SWINGS · 12' Livorno win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Grosseto win 17%)
  17. 13′A goal for Livorno on 13′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 61–22–17
  18. 15′L. Malagrida scores for Livorno on 12′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 61–22–17
  19. 26′We said Grosseto at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 2–1 · 63–23–14
  20. 30′3 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 63–23–13
  21. 32′SUBSTITUTION · 30' Grosseto · On: M. Gaddini · Off: L. Sabattini
  22. 35′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Livorno
  23. 43′🟨 YELLOW · 42' Livorno
  24. 43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Grosseto win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
  25. 45′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 28–39–33
  26. 45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Livorno 2–2 Grosseto
  27. 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Grosseto win: 40% at kick-off, 33% now
  28. 45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Livorno win 28%)
  29. 45′SECOND HALF Livorno 2–2 Grosseto
  30. 46′45′: L. Andreoli on the scoresheet for Grosseto, making it 2–2. 2–2 · 28–40–33
  31. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Livorno · On: T. Pittino · Off: D. Gentile
  32. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Livorno · On: A. Bacciardi · Off: T. Arrigoni
  33. 48′HALF-TIME Livorno 2–2 Grosseto
  34. 52′We said Grosseto at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 74%. 2–3 · 6–20–74
  35. 52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Livorno 2–3 Grosseto
  36. 52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' Grosseto win: 40% at kick-off, 74% now
  37. 52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Grosseto win is now our likeliest result at 74% (was Draw 20%)
  38. 53′Grosseto find the net on 52′. 2–3. 2–3 · 6–20–74
  39. 53′5 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 2–3 · 6–20–74
  40. 53′That is 6, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 3–3 · 26–44–30
  41. 53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Livorno 3–3 Grosseto
  42. 53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Grosseto win: 40% at kick-off, 30% now
  43. 53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Grosseto win 30%)
  44. 54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Grosseto win: 40% at kick-off, 30% now
  45. 55′A goal for Livorno on 54′ — 3–3. 3–3 · 25–46–29
  46. 58′We said Grosseto at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 28%. 3–3 · 24–48–28
  47. 64′We said Grosseto at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 5%. 4–3 · 75–20–5
  48. 64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Livorno 4–3 Grosseto
  49. 64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Grosseto win: 40% at kick-off, 5% now
  50. 64′THE CALL SWINGS · 64' Livorno win is now our likeliest result at 75% (was Draw 20%)
  51. 65′A goal for Livorno on 65′. 3–3 · 21–54–25
  52. 65′GOAL DISALLOWED · 65' Livorno
  53. 65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Grosseto win: 40% at kick-off, 25% now
  54. 65′THE CALL SWINGS · 65' Draw is now our likeliest result at 54% (was Livorno win 21%)
  55. 66′We said Grosseto at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 3–3 · 21–55–24
  56. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Livorno · On: G. Morachioli · Off: L. Malagrida
  57. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Grosseto · On: T. Fantacci · Off: P. Fiorini
  58. 71′🟨 YELLOW · 70' Grosseto
  59. 72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Grosseto win: 40% at kick-off, 20% now
  60. 72′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Livorno
  61. 75′We said Grosseto at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 3–4 · 2–14–85
  62. 75′7 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 3–4 · 2–14–85
  63. 75′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Livorno
  64. 75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Livorno 3–4 Grosseto
  65. 75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Grosseto win: 40% at kick-off, 85% now
  66. 75′THE CALL SWINGS · 75' Grosseto win is now our likeliest result at 85% (was Draw 14%)
  67. 76′Grosseto score on 75′ to make it 3–4. 3–4 · 1–13–86
  68. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Livorno · On: T. Mancini · Off: M. Aramu
  69. 81′We said Grosseto at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 3–4 · 1–10–90
  70. 81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Grosseto win: 40% at kick-off, 90% now
  71. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Livorno · On: C. Badoro · Off: G. Gabbiani
  72. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Grosseto · On: F. Cerretelli · Off: F. Fabri
  73. 87′That is 8, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 4–4 · 6–88–6
  74. 87′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Grosseto · On: M. Fiorani · Off: L. Andreoli
  75. 87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Grosseto · On: A. Montini · Off: M. Mannelli
  76. 87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Livorno 4–4 Grosseto
  77. 87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Grosseto win: 40% at kick-off, 6% now
  78. 87′THE CALL SWINGS · 87' Draw is now our likeliest result at 88% (was Grosseto win 6%)
  79. 88′Livorno find the net on 88′. 4–4. 4–4 · 5–89–6
  80. 90′We said Grosseto at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 4–4 · 4–92–4
  81. 95′4–4 at the end. Our 40% on Grosseto misses, and the record keeps it. 4–4 · 0–100–0
  82. FTFULL TIME Livorno 4–4 Grosseto
  83. FTLivorno 4–4 Grosseto · Grosseto win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Grosseto are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Livorno 32%, draw 28%, Grosseto 40%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Livorno v GrossetoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Livorno win32%
Draw28%
Grosseto win40%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 19:30

RoundGirone B · matchday 10

VenueStadio Armando Picchi

RefereeR. Tropiano

Line-ups

Livorno

Grosseto

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Livorno

Grosseto

5Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · Serie C - Girone B

Last match: 10 Oct · Serie C - Girone B

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
3Grosseto9+818
5Livorno9+115

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Livorno

Formation not confirmed

91 M. Martinez

2 D. Gentile

4 M. Bachini

34 F. Veseli

28 A. Rizza

21 M. Malotti

17 T. Arrigoni

32 N. Haas

11 L. Malagrida

7 M. Aramu

9 G. Gabbiani

Coach · Cristiano Lucarelli

Substitutes

1 · F. Tani

22 · D. Ciobanu

6 · K. Djidji

53 · T. Pittino

3 · F. Menarini

44 · L. Bonassi

77 · J. C. Mawete

5 · A. Bacciardi

24 · C. Badoro

90 · L. Calabro

14 · T. Mancini

23 · J. Marinari

18 · G. Morachioli

Grosseto

Formation not confirmed

35 A. Marcu

91 E. Pitti

27 D. Brenna

23 F. Ampollini

47 M. Mannelli

29 L. Andreoli

8 M. Damiani

11 P. Fiorini

70 F. Fabri

5 L. Sabattini

9 L. Gori

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · M. Cabella

12 · D. Menicucci

21 · L. Gonnelli

19 · A. Montini

32 · A. Ciraudo

24 · L. Alfani

99 · T. Della Mora

25 · T. Fantacci

6 · F. Cerretelli

20 · F. Bellini

16 · M. Fiorani

77 · E. Lorenzelli

10 · F. Mastroianni

28 · M. Gaddini

39 · L. Tosi

Our number · grosseto winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 11 Oct 04:03 · locked at kick-off
40% The market26%
Us40%
Market26%

We make Grosseto a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 26%. We are 14 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Livorno v Grosseto1.25 – 1.42
Form · last six in Serie C - Girone B this season · since 12 SeptW2 D2 L2 · W3 D2 L1
Table places · points 15 v 185 v 3
The market · Grosseto win26% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
25%30%35%40%45% 10 OCT 03:5616 OCT 19:10
Our probability · Grosseto win The market, margin stripped

Published at 39%, 40% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 26% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Livorno win32%46%−14
Draw28%28%0
Grosseto win40%26%+14
Over 2.5 goals50%52%−2
Both teams to score54%56%−2
Over 1.5 goals75%74%+1
Over 3.5 goals28%33%−5
Livorno or draw60%74%−14
Livorno clean sheet25%––
Grosseto clean sheet29%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.0%
0123450 8.5 8.8 7.0 3.3 1 7.6 13.0 8.4 4.0 2 5.4 7.4 5.2 2.5 3 2.3 3.2 2.2 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Livorno down, Grosseto across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2022/23
Goals a meeting2.75
Over 2.53 of 8
Both scored5 of 8
Last meetingsGRO 0–0 LIV · LIV 5–2 GRO · LIV 3–0 GRO · GRO 3–2 LIV

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie C - Girone B this season · since 12 Sept

LIVORNO

LWDWLD0–2 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 3–2 · 0–1 · 1–1

GROSSETO

DDWWLW0–0 · 2–2 · 2–0 · 4–0 · 1–3 · 3–2

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Spezia9+1325
2Ravenna9+1120
3Grosseto9+818
4Torres9+115
5Livorno9+115
6Reggiana8+514
7Guidonia Montecelio 19379+313
8Perugia9−513
9Campobasso FC9−112
10Pescara9−112
11Forli9+111
12Vado9011
13Latina9−110
14Ostia Mare9−19
15Atalanta II8−59
16Pianese9−47
17Pineto8−57
18Gubbio9−87
19Sambenedettese9−36
20Vis Pesaro8−94

The competition's standings before kick-off.