Latina v Vis Pesaro prediction · Serie C - Girone B

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 14:08

Latina 1–0 Vis Pesaro LATINA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Latina win~~42%

~~The market said~~57%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.500

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.278

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Latina win at 42%.
1′Much as we predicted: Latina was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 42–30–27
1′KICK-OFF Latina v Vis Pesaro
3′We published Latina at 42%. Our model now makes it 73%. 1–0 · 73–17–10
3′⚽ GOAL · 3' Latina 1–0 Vis Pesaro
3′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 3' Latina win: 42% at kick-off, 73% now
4′A goal for Latina on 3′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 73–17–10
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.3 we expected. 1–0 · 74–18–7
33′We published Latina at 42%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–18–7
33′🟨 YELLOW · 32' Vis Pesaro
45′SECOND HALF Latina 1–0 Vis Pesaro
46′HALF-TIME Latina 1–0 Vis Pesaro
54′🟨 YELLOW · 54' Vis Pesaro
57′We published Latina at 42%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–4
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Vis Pesaro · On: E. Mariani · Off: P. Giorgini
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' Latina win: 42% at kick-off, 82% now
64′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Latina
65′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Latina
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Vis Pesaro · On: R. Giovannini · Off: G. Maucci
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Latina · On: D'Angelo Sonny · Off: G. Castorri
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Latina · On: M. Porro · Off: A. Cioffi
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Latina · On: Y. Sylla · Off: G. Tomaselli
70′We published Latina at 42%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Vis Pesaro · On: N. Lari · Off: F. Nicastro
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Vis Pesaro · On: C. Nina · Off: N. Berengo
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Vis Pesaro · On: G. Bailo · Off: N. Conti
79′We published Latina at 42%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
79′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Latina · On: J. Lipani · Off: A. De Cristofaro
79′🟨 YELLOW · 78' Latina
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Latina win: 42% at kick-off, 92% now
85′We published Latina at 42%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
90′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Latina · On: M. Bruscagin · Off: F. Marenco
95′Full time, 1–0. We called Latina at 42% — that one lands. 1–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Latina 1–0 Vis Pesaro
FTLatina 1–0 Vis Pesaro · Latina win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Latina are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Latina 42%, draw 30%, Vis Pesaro 27%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Latina v Vis PesaroBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Latina win42%

Draw30%

Vis Pesaro win27%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 11:30

RoundGirone B · matchday 10

VenueStadio Domenico Francioni

RefereeD. Ammannati

Line-ups

Latina

Vis Pesaro

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Latina

Vis Pesaro

4Days since last match8

Last match: 14 Oct · Serie C - Girone B

Last match: 10 Oct · Serie C - Girone B

3Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Latina	9	−1	10
20	Vis Pesaro	8	−9	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Latina

Formation not confirmed

67 D. Mastrantonio

13 F. Marenco

32 G. Parodi

6 B. Calabrese

2 E. Ercolano

8 G. Castorri

30 R. De Ciancio

4 A. De Cristofaro

70 G. Tomaselli

77 A. Cioffi

7 J. Baez

Coach · Gennaro Volpe

Substitutes

1 · M. Basti

96 · C. Sbaccanti

5 · M. Bruscagin

66 · D. De Marchi

45 · C. Keita

36 · J. Lipani

3 · M. Porro

27 · D'Angelo Sonny

28 · V. Plescia

14 · L. Gagliano

9 · Y. Sylla

19 · G. Di Giovannantonio

Vis Pesaro

Formation not confirmed

25 A. Gomis

2 N. Conti

45 P. Giorgini

79 S. Ebano

3 G. Barranco

24 N. Berengo

7 M. Pucciarelli

47 A. Konate

10 M. Di Paola

30 G. Maucci

9 F. Nicastro

Coach · Andrea Gennari

Substitutes

1 · M. Piersanti

16 · A. Guarnone

22 · M. Mariani

36 · G. Bailo

23 · L. Beghetto

33 · F. Pompilio

28 · M. Rigione

4 · C. Nina

71 · F. Tavernaro

55 · E. Mariani

90 · N. Lari

20 · R. Giovannini

80 · G. Gambino

21 · C. Vaccaro

27 · F. Sculli

Our number · latina winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 15 Oct 04:49 · locked at kick-off

42% The market57%

Us42%

~~Market~~57%

We make Latina a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 57%. We are 15 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Latina v Vis Pesaro~~1.31 – 1.00

~~Form · last six in Serie C - Girone B this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 10 v 4~~13 v 20

~~The market · Latina win~~57% · ours 42%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Latina win The market, margin stripped

Published at 41%, 42% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 57% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Latina win	42%	57%	−15
Draw	30%	25%	+5
Vis Pesaro win	27%	18%	+9
Over 2.5 goals	40%	53%	−13
Both teams to score	47%	52%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	68%	75%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	20%	33%	−13
Latina or draw	73%	82%	−9
Latina clean sheet	37%	–	–
Vis Pesaro clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.0%

0123450 11.5 8.8 5.0 1 11.8 14.0 6.4 2.2 2 8.4 8.3 4.1 3 3.7 3.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Latina down, Vis Pesaro across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,970 Serie C - Girone B matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie C - Girone B matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.2% of games this season, across 93 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Latina at home: 1.20 scored, 0.40 conceded a game (last 5). Vis Pesaro away: 0.50 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.31 goals for Latina, 1.00 for Vis Pesaro. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie C - Girone B this season · since 5 Sept

LATINA

LDLDDW1–3 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 2–0

VIS PESARO

LLLLWL1–2 · 1–2 · 1–4 · 1–3 · 2–1 · 2–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Spezia	9	+13	25
2	Ravenna	9	+11	20
3	Grosseto	10	+8	19
4	Reggiana	9	+7	17
5	Guidonia Montecelio 1937	10	+4	16
6	Livorno	10	+1	16
7	Torres	10	−1	15
8	Perugia	9	−5	13
9	Vado	10	0	12
10	Campobasso FC	9	−1	12
11	Pescara	9	−1	12
12	Forli	10	0	11
13	Latina	9	−1	10
14	Ostia Mare	9	−1	9
15	Atalanta II	8	−5	9
16	Pianese	10	−4	8
17	Pineto	9	−5	8
18	Sambenedettese	10	−3	7
19	Gubbio	9	−8	7
20	Vis Pesaro	8	−9	4