Latina v Atalanta II prediction · Serie C

Full timeGraded 14 Oct 16:31

Latina 2–0 Atalanta II LATINA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Latina win~~41%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.531

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.456

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 32 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Latina win at 41%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Latina 41% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 42–28–31
1′KICK-OFF Latina v Atalanta II
23′A goal for Latina on 22′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 71–20–9
23′⚽ GOAL · 22' Latina 1–0 Atalanta II
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Latina win: 41% at kick-off, 71% now
25′We said Latina at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 71%. 1–0 · 71–20–9
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.4 we expected. 1–0 · 72–20–8
36′🟨 YELLOW · 36' Latina
37′🟨 YELLOW · 35' E. Ercolano · Latina
37′⚽ GOAL · 37' Latina 2–0 Atalanta II
38′37′ and it is 2–0: Latina have scored. 2–0 · 93–6–1
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Latina win: 41% at kick-off, 93% now
39′We said Latina at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 93%. 2–0 · 93–6–1
42′SUBSTITUTION · 40' Atalanta II · On: L. Puljic · Off: J. Mirra
45′Atalanta II are down to ten from 45′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 2–0 · 94–5–1
45′🟥 RED CARD · 48' Atalanta II
45′HALF-TIME Latina 2–0 Atalanta II
46′🟥 RED CARD · 48' D. K. Pounga · Atalanta II
46′SECOND HALF Latina 2–0 Atalanta II
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Atalanta II · On: S. Levak · Off: A. Bonanomi
49′We said Latina at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–5–1
56′SUBSTITUTION · 54' Atalanta II · On: S. Diao · Off: G. Bertolini
56′SUBSTITUTION · 54' Latina · On: A. De Cristofaro · Off: D'Angelo Sonny
56′SUBSTITUTION · 54' Latina · On: C. Keita · Off: G. Tomaselli
56′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Latina · On: B. Calabrese · Off: E. Ercolano
61′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Latina
63′🟨 YELLOW · 60' C. Keita · Latina
66′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Atalanta II
68′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Latina
70′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Latina · On: Y. Sylla · Off: A. Cioffi
70′🟨 YELLOW · 66' G. Misitano · Atalanta II
71′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Y. Sylla · Latina
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Atalanta II · On: M. Plaia · Off: D. Ghislandi
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Atalanta II · On: T. De Nipoti · Off: G. Misitano
80′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Atalanta II
81′We said Latina at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 100%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
81′🟨 YELLOW · 80' F. Simonetto · Atalanta II
90′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Latina · On: M. Porro · Off: C. Sussi
90′🟨 YELLOW · 93' Latina
90′🟨 YELLOW · 93' G. Parodi · Latina
FTFULL TIME Latina 2–0 Atalanta II
FTLatina 2–0 Atalanta II · Latina win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Example · Everton v Chelsea · written before kick-off

Chelsea are slight favourites, but Everton are close behind.

Chelsea are our model’s narrow favourites at 38%, with Everton at 35% and the draw at 27%. Chelsea remain below an even chance: this is a slight lean towards the visitors, not a strong likelihood.

Everton are at home and unbeaten in the 2026/27 Premier League: two wins and four draws from six matches, earning 10 points, scoring eight and conceding five.

The AI’s read on Latina v Atalanta IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 14 Oct 13:28 · locked at kick-off

Latina win41%

Draw30%

Atalanta II win30%

Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 14:00

VenueStadio Domenico Francioni

Line-ups

Latina

Atalanta II

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Latina

Atalanta II

3Days since last match3

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
14	Atalanta II	7	-3	9
15	Latina	8	-3	7

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Latina

Formation not confirmed

67 D. Mastrantonio

13 F. Marenco

32 G. Parodi

2 E. Ercolano

16 C. Sussi

8 G. Castorri

30 R. De Ciancio

27 D'Angelo Sonny

70 G. Tomaselli

77 A. Cioffi

7 J. Baez

Coach · Gennaro Volpe

Substitutes

1 · M. Basti

96 · C. Sbaccanti

5 · M. Bruscagin

45 · C. Keita

6 · B. Calabrese

4 · A. De Cristofaro

3 · M. Porro

28 · V. Plescia

14 · L. Gagliano

9 · Y. Sylla

19 · G. Di Giovannantonio

Atalanta II

Formation not confirmed

22 A. Anelli

33 F. Bergonzi

14 J. Mirra

23 I. Isoa

3 F. Simonetto

10 A. Bonanomi

21 F. Steffanoni

8 D. K. Pounga

24 D. Ghislandi

9 G. Misitano

28 G. Bertolini

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · T. Bertini

70 · E. Zanchi

37 · A. Navarro

77 · A. Rinaldi

18 · A. Guerini

5 · M. Plaia

43 · L. Puljic

79 · M. Pedretti

47 · S. Levak

7 · A. Manzoni

91 · F. Mencaraglia

80 · T. De Nipoti

29 · S. Diao

90 · E. Zanaboni

45 · H. Camara

Our number · latina winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 14 Oct 13:28 · locked at kick-off

41% The market45%

Us41%

~~Market~~45%

We make Latina a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Latina v Atalanta II~~1.32 – 1.09

~~Last six in Serie C - Girone B~~W1 D3 L2 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 7 v 9~~15 v 14

~~The market · Latina win~~45% · ours 41%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · latina win The market, margin stripped

Published at 40%, 41% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Latina win	41%	45%	−4
Draw	30%	28%	+2
Atalanta II win	30%	27%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	43%	50%	−7
Both teams to score	49%	54%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	70%	73%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	23%	30%	−8
Latina or draw	70%	73%	−2
Latina clean sheet	34%	–	–
Atalanta II clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.8%

0123450 10.4 8.7 5.4 1 10.7 13.8 6.9 2.6 2 7.8 8.3 4.5 3 3.5 3.7 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Latina down, Atalanta II across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,964 Serie C - Girone B matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie C - Girone B matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.8% of games this season, across 87 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting between these two, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Latina at home: 1.00 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 4). Atalanta II away: 1.00 scored, 1.75 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

1.32 goals for Latina, 1.09 for Atalanta II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No meetings between these two in Serie C - Girone B since 2021. Cup ties and meetings in other competitions are not counted here.

Form · last six in Serie C - Girone B

LATINA

WLDLDD2–0 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–1

ATALANTA II

WLWWLL2–1 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 3–2 · 0–2 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Spezia	9	13	25
2	Ravenna	9	11	20
3	Grosseto	9	8	18
4	Torres	9	1	15
5	Livorno	9	1	15
6	Reggiana	8	5	14
7	Guidonia Montecelio 1937	9	3	13
8	Perugia	9	-5	13
9	Campobasso FC	9	-1	12
10	Pescara	9	-1	12
11	Forli	9	1	11
12	Vado	9	0	11
13	Ostia Mare	9	-1	9
14	Atalanta II	7	-3	9
15	Latina	8	-3	7
16	Pianese	9	-4	7
17	Pineto	8	-5	7
18	Gubbio	9	-8	7
19	Sambenedettese	9	-3	6
20	Vis Pesaro	8	-9	4