Guidonia Montecelio 1937 v Perugia prediction · Serie C

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Guidonia Montecelio 1937DrawPerugia

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Guidonia Montecelio 1937 40%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Guidonia Montecelio 1937 are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Guidonia Montecelio 1937 40%, draw 31%, Perugia 29%. Over 2.5 goals 37%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Guidonia Montecelio 1937 v PerugiaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Guidonia Montecelio 1937 win40%

Draw31%

Perugia win29%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 16:30

RoundGirone B · matchday 12

VenueStadio Citta dell Aria

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Guidonia Montecelio 1937

Perugia

14Days since last match8

Last match: 17 Oct · Serie C - Girone B

Last match: 23 Oct · Serie C - Girone B

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Guidonia Montecelio 1937	10	+4	16
8	Perugia	11	−2	16

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · guidonia montecelio 1937 winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Guidonia Montecelio 1937 a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Guidonia Montecelio 1937 v Perugia~~1.21 – 0.99

~~Form · last six in Serie C - Girone B this season · since 16 Sept~~W2 D3 L1 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 16 v 16~~6 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Guidonia Montecelio 1937 win	40%	–	–
Draw	31%	–	–
Perugia win	29%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	37%	–	–
Both teams to score	44%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	65%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	18%	–	–
Guidonia Montecelio 1937 or draw	71%	–	–
Guidonia Montecelio 1937 clean sheet	38%	–	–
Perugia clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.1%

0123450 12.6 9.9 5.4 1 12.3 14.1 6.4 2.1 2 8.1 7.8 3.8 3 3.3 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Guidonia Montecelio 1937 down, Perugia across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,983 Serie C - Girone B matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie C - Girone B matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.3% of games this season, across 106 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.33 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Guidonia Montecelio 1937 at home: 1.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Perugia away: 1.83 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.21 goals for Guidonia Montecelio 1937, 0.99 for Perugia. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.33

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~GUI 1–2 PER · PER 0–0 GUI · GUI 1–3 PER

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie C - Girone B this season · since 16 Sept

GUIDONIA MONTECELIO 1937

DDLWDW1–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 3–2

PERUGIA

LWWLWL0–2 · 1–0 · 3–1 · 0–2 · 5–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Spezia	11	+14	29
2	Ravenna	11	+14	23
3	Grosseto	10	+8	19
4	Pescara	11	+2	18
5	Reggiana	10	+5	17
6	Guidonia Montecelio 1937	10	+4	16
7	Livorno	11	0	16
8	Perugia	11	−2	16
9	Vado	11	+1	15
10	Torres	10	−1	15
11	Campobasso FC	11	−4	15
12	Latina	11	0	14
13	Pineto	11	−2	14
14	Atalanta II	10	−4	12
15	Forli	10	0	11
16	Sambenedettese	11	−2	10
17	Ostia Mare	11	−4	9
18	Pianese	10	−4	8
19	Gubbio	11	−11	7
20	Vis Pesaro	10	−14	4