Gubbio v Atalanta II prediction · Serie C

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04

Gubbio 0–2 Atalanta II GUBBIO WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Gubbio win~~41%

~~The market said~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.775

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.645

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Gubbio win at 41%.
1′Much as we predicted: Gubbio was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 41–31–28
1′KICK-OFF Gubbio v Atalanta II
33′🟨 YELLOW · 33' Gubbio
36′THE CALL SWINGS · 36' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Gubbio win 35%)
39′🟨 YELLOW · 39' Gubbio
43′🟨 YELLOW · 42' Atalanta II
45′HALF-TIME Gubbio 0–0 Atalanta II
46′SECOND HALF Gubbio 0–0 Atalanta II
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Gubbio · On: N. Fazzi · Off: L. Podda
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Gubbio win: 41% at kick-off, 31% now
53′We said Gubbio at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–49–22
62′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Gubbio · On: L. Barani · Off: T. Ghirardello
62′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Gubbio · On: G. Beretta · Off: A. La Mantia
63′We said Gubbio at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–57–19
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Atalanta II · On: A. Bonanomi · Off: T. De Nipoti
65′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Gubbio
66′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Atalanta II · On: E. Zanaboni · Off: G. Misitano
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Gubbio win: 41% at kick-off, 21% now
71′We said Gubbio at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–66–15
77′We said Gubbio at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–74–11
78′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Atalanta II · On: A. Manzoni · Off: D. Ghislandi
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Gubbio · On: E. Baldini · Off: M. Spina
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Gubbio win: 41% at kick-off, 11% now
83′We said Gubbio at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–85–7
84′Atalanta II score on 83′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 0–7–92
84′We said Gubbio at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at under 1%. 0–1 · 0–7–92
84′⚽ GOAL · 83' Gubbio 0–1 Atalanta II
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Gubbio win: 41% at kick-off, under 1% now
84′THE CALL SWINGS · 84' Atalanta II win is now our likeliest result at 92% (was Draw 7%)
90′Atalanta II find the net on 90′. 0–2. 0–2 · 0–0–100
90′Goals are coming at about the 2.3 we expected. 0–2 · 0–0–100
90′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Atalanta II · On: L. Puljic · Off: S. Diao
90′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' Gubbio 0–2 Atalanta II
FTFULL TIME Gubbio 0–2 Atalanta II
FTGubbio 0–2 Atalanta II · Gubbio win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Gubbio are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Gubbio 41%, draw 31%, Atalanta II 28%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Gubbio v Atalanta IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Gubbio win41%

Draw31%

Atalanta II win28%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:30

RoundGirone B · matchday 10

VenueStadio Pietro Barbetti

RefereeA. Palmieri

Line-ups

Gubbio

Atalanta II

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Gubbio

Atalanta II

8Days since last match4

Last match: 10 Oct · Serie C - Girone B

Last match: 14 Oct · Serie C - Girone B

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
15	Atalanta II	8	−5	9
19	Gubbio	9	−8	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Gubbio

Formation not confirmed

22 L. Marson

34 F. Zallu

4 L. Baroncelli

70 M. Ferrini

27 L. Podda

7 M. Spina

67 F. Carraro

8 G. Rosaia

73 T. Ghirardello

77 A. Minta

10 A. La Mantia

Coach · Piero Braglia

Substitutes

1 · N. Bagnolini

12 · L. Barbanera

15 · A. Signorini

76 · L. Barani

17 · N. Fazzi

6 · O. Barry

21 · B. Zorzetto

24 · L. Piomboni

81 · G. Beretta

92 · E. Baldini

Atalanta II

Formation not confirmed

22 A. Anelli

33 F. Bergonzi

23 I. Isoa

18 A. Guerini

37 A. Navarro

80 T. De Nipoti

21 F. Steffanoni

47 S. Levak

24 D. Ghislandi

9 G. Misitano

29 S. Diao

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · T. Bertini

70 · E. Zanchi

6 · G. Ramaj

77 · A. Rinaldi

43 · L. Puljic

3 · F. Simonetto

10 · A. Bonanomi

79 · M. Pedretti

7 · A. Manzoni

91 · F. Mencaraglia

90 · E. Zanaboni

28 · G. Bertolini

45 · H. Camara

11 · N. Baldo

Our number · gubbio winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 15 Oct 04:49 · locked at kick-off

41% The market36%

Us41%

~~Market~~36%

We make Gubbio a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Gubbio v Atalanta II~~1.26 – 1.00

~~Form · last six in Serie C - Girone B this season · since 6 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 7 v 9~~19 v 15

~~The market · Gubbio win~~36% · ours 41%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Gubbio win The market, margin stripped

Published at 40%, 41% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 36% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Gubbio win	41%	36%	+5
Draw	31%	30%	+1
Atalanta II win	28%	35%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	39%	47%	−8
Both teams to score	46%	53%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	67%	71%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	19%	27%	−8
Gubbio or draw	72%	65%	+7
Gubbio clean sheet	37%	–	–
Atalanta II clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.1%

0123450 12.0 9.3 5.3 1 11.9 14.1 6.5 2.2 2 8.2 8.1 4.0 3 3.5 3.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Gubbio down, Atalanta II across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,970 Serie C - Girone B matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie C - Girone B matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.2% of games this season, across 93 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2023/24.

Home and away form

Gubbio at home: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Atalanta II away: 0.80 scored, 1.80 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

1.26 goals for Gubbio, 1.00 for Atalanta II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2023/24

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2023/24.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie C - Girone B this season · since 6 Sept

GUBBIO

WDLLLL3–1 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 1–3 · 0–2

ATALANTA II

LWWLLL0–1 · 2–1 · 3–2 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Spezia	9	+13	25
2	Ravenna	9	+11	20
3	Grosseto	10	+8	19
4	Reggiana	9	+7	17
5	Guidonia Montecelio 1937	10	+4	16
6	Livorno	10	+1	16
7	Torres	10	−1	15
8	Perugia	9	−5	13
9	Vado	10	0	12
10	Campobasso FC	9	−1	12
11	Pescara	9	−1	12
12	Forli	10	0	11
13	Latina	9	−1	10
14	Ostia Mare	9	−1	9
15	Atalanta II	8	−5	9
16	Pianese	10	−4	8
17	Pineto	9	−5	8
18	Sambenedettese	10	−3	7
19	Gubbio	9	−8	7
20	Vis Pesaro	8	−9	4