Grosseto v Reggiana prediction · Serie C - Girone B

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

GrossetoDrawReggiana

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Reggiana 37%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Reggiana just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Grosseto 36%, draw 27%, Reggiana 37%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Grosseto v ReggianaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Grosseto win36%

Draw27%

Reggiana win37%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 13:30

RoundGirone B · matchday 11

VenueStadio Carlo Zecchini

RefereeF. Colaninno

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Grosseto

Reggiana

9Days since last match5

Last match: 16 Oct · Serie C - Girone B

Last match: 20 Oct · Serie C - Girone B

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Grosseto	10	+8	19
5	Reggiana	10	+5	17

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · reggiana winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · updated 21 Oct 00:12 · locked at kick-off

37% The market40%

Us37%

~~Market~~40%

We make Reggiana a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Grosseto v Reggiana~~1.42 – 1.46

~~Form · last six in Serie C - Girone B this season · since 16 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 19 v 17~~3 v 5

~~The market · Reggiana win~~40% · ours 37%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Reggiana win The market, margin stripped

Published at 40%, 37% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Grosseto win	36%	32%	+4
Draw	27%	28%	−1
Reggiana win	37%	40%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	54%	52%	+2
Both teams to score	57%	57%	0
Over 1.5 goals	78%	75%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	33%	31%	+2
Grosseto or draw	63%	60%	+3
Grosseto clean sheet	25%	–	–
Reggiana clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 7.3 7.4 5.9 3.0 1 7.3 12.2 7.9 3.9 2 5.8 7.9 5.5 2.7 3 2.8 3.8 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Grosseto down, Reggiana across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,983 Serie C - Girone B matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie C - Girone B matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.3% of games this season, across 106 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Grosseto at home: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Reggiana away: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.42 goals for Grosseto, 1.46 for Reggiana. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~REG 3–1 GRO · GRO 0–0 REG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie C - Girone B this season · since 16 Sept

GROSSETO

DWWLWD2–2 · 2–0 · 4–0 · 1–3 · 3–2 · 4–4

REGGIANA

WWLLWL4–1 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Spezia	11	+14	29
2	Ravenna	11	+14	23
3	Grosseto	10	+8	19
4	Pescara	11	+2	18
5	Reggiana	10	+5	17
6	Guidonia Montecelio 1937	10	+4	16
7	Livorno	11	0	16
8	Perugia	11	−2	16
9	Vado	11	+1	15
10	Torres	10	−1	15
11	Campobasso FC	11	−4	15
12	Latina	11	0	14
13	Pineto	11	−2	14
14	Atalanta II	10	−4	12
15	Forli	10	0	11
16	Sambenedettese	11	−2	10
17	Ostia Mare	11	−4	9
18	Pianese	10	−4	8
19	Gubbio	11	−11	7
20	Vis Pesaro	10	−14	4