Forli v Livorno prediction · Serie C - Girone B

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Forli 1–1 Livorno FORLI WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Forli win~~41%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.794

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.767

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Forli win at 41%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Forli 41% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 42–26–32
23′We said Forli at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 16%. 0–1 · 16–23–61
44′Livorno ahead on 24′ through M. Malotti. 0–1. 0–1 · 11–24–66
45′SECOND HALF Forli 0–1 Livorno
46′Livorno ahead on 24′ through M. Malotti. 0–1. 0–1 · 10–24–66
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Forli win: 41% at kick-off, 11% now
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Forli win: 41% at kick-off, 16% now
46′SECOND HALF Forli 0–1 Livorno
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Forli win: 41% at kick-off, 10% now
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 46' Livorno win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Forli win 10%)
46′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Livorno
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Forli win: 41% at kick-off, 10% now
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Livorno win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Forli win 10%)
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Forli win: 41% at kick-off, 10% now
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Livorno win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Forli win 10%)
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Forli win: 41% at kick-off, 10% now
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Livorno win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Forli win 10%)
58′🟨 YELLOW · 58' Forli
65′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Livorno · On: T. Arrigoni · Off: F. Menarini
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Livorno · On: T. Pittino · Off: A. Bacciardi
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Livorno · On: L. Bonassi · Off: S. Regazzetti
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Forli · On: G. Mattioli · Off: L. Munaretti
74′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Forli · On: T. Gabellini · Off: G. Perretta
76′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Livorno · On: T. Mancini · Off: M. Malotti
79′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Forli · On: J. Scaccabarozzi · Off: M. Rosetti
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Forli 1–1 Livorno · M. Malotti
82′⚽ GOAL · 83' Forli 1–1 Livorno
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Livorno · On: D. Gentile · Off: J. C. Mawete
86′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Livorno
FTFULL TIME Forli 1–1 Livorno
FTForli 1–1 Livorno · Forli win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Forli win41%

Draw27%

Livorno win31%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 16:30

VenueStadio Tullo Morgagni

RefereeG. Sacchi

Line-ups

Forli

Livorno

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Forli

Livorno

8Days since last match8

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Livorno	8	+1	14
11	Forli	8	+1	10

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Forli

Formation not confirmed

12 D. Theiner

35 S. Diop

15 F. Valentini

95 L. Munaretti

11 N. Farinelli

10 D. Macri

6 C. De Risio

8 M. Rosetti

30 G. Perretta

9 V. Coveri

7 E. Petrelli

Coach · Nicola Campedelli

Substitutes

34 · G. Veliaj

22 · L. Martelli

26 · L. Palomba

2 · N. Mandrelli

36 · M. Onofri

33 · D. Rossi

21 · G. Mattioli

17 · A. Spinelli

4 · F. Valentini

23 · J. Scaccabarozzi

5 · R. Gaiola

77 · P. Zerbo

19 · T. Gabellini

99 · N. Tordiglione

18 · G. Perini

Livorno

Formation not confirmed

91 M. Martinez

19 S. Regazzetti

4 M. Bachini

34 F. Veseli

28 A. Rizza

32 N. Haas

3 F. Menarini

77 J. C. Mawete

21 M. Malotti

5 A. Bacciardi

9 G. Gabbiani

Coach · Cristiano Lucarelli

Substitutes

1 · F. Tani

22 · D. Ciobanu

6 · K. Djidji

53 · T. Pittino

2 · D. Gentile

17 · T. Arrigoni

7 · M. Aramu

44 · L. Bonassi

11 · L. Malagrida

24 · C. Badoro

90 · L. Calabro

14 · T. Mancini

23 · J. Marinari

18 · G. Morachioli

Our number · forli winPublished 11 Oct 16:29

41% The market38%

Us41%

~~Market~~38%

We make Forli a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · forli win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 31% to 38% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Forli win	41%	38%	+3
Draw	27%	29%	−1
Livorno win	31%	33%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	51%	46%	+4
Both teams to score	55%	52%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	76%	70%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	29%	26%	+3
Forli or draw	69%	67%	+2
Forli clean sheet	29%	–	–
Livorno clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%

0123450 7.9 7.3 5.2 2.2 1 8.7 12.9 7.4 3.1 2 7.1 8.7 5.4 2.3 3 3.5 4.3 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Forli down, Livorno across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,958 Serie C - Girone B matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie C - Girone B matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.7% of games this season, across 81 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 3.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Forli at home: 1.67 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Livorno away: 0.67 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.47 goals for Forli, 1.25 for Livorno. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~FOR 1–1 LIV · LIV 2–3 FOR

Form · last six in Serie C - Girone B

FORLI

LWDDDL0–2 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–1

LIVORNO

WLWDWL1–0 · 0–2 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 3–2 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Spezia	9	+13	25
2	Grosseto	9	+8	18
3	Ravenna	8	+9	17
4	Reggiana	8	+5	14
5	Livorno	8	+1	14
6	Perugia	8	−3	13
7	Guidonia Montecelio 1937	8	+3	12
8	Campobasso FC	8	+1	12
9	Torres	8	0	12
10	Pescara	8	−1	11
11	Forli	8	+1	10
12	Ostia Mare	9	−1	9
13	Atalanta II	6	−2	9
14	Vado	8	−2	8
15	Pianese	9	−4	7
16	Pineto	8	−5	7
17	Gubbio	9	−8	7
18	Latina	7	−3	6
19	Sambenedettese	8	−3	5
20	Vis Pesaro	8	−9	4