Install the appInstall the appPitchside Lab · free · no ads
Pitchside Lab
Model 1.2

Home › Football › Serie C - Girone B › Campobasso FC v Perugia

Back
Italy flag

Campobasso FC v Perugia

Campobasso FC
1–5Full time
Perugia

Serie C - Girone B · SUN 18 OCT · Stadio Nuovo Romagnoli

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 14:08
Campobasso FC 1–5 Perugia CAMPOBASSO FC WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Campobasso FC win45%
The market said41%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.843
The market’s Brier score0.723

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay20 notes · 41 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Campobasso FC win at 45%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Campobasso FC 45% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 45–29–26
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Campobasso FC v Perugia
  4. 15′🟨 YELLOW · 15' Perugia
  5. 16′SUBSTITUTION · 15' Campobasso FC · On: E. Salines · Off: F. Papini
  6. 22′🟨 YELLOW · 22' Campobasso FC
  7. 23′We said Campobasso FC at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 17%. 0–1 · 17–24–58
  8. 23′⚽ GOAL · 23' Campobasso FC 0–1 Perugia
  9. 23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Campobasso FC win: 45% at kick-off, 17% now
  10. 23′THE CALL SWINGS · 23' Perugia win is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Campobasso FC win 17%)
  11. 24′A goal for Perugia on 23′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 17–24–59
  12. 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.4 we expected. 0–1 · 15–25–60
  13. 30′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 30' Campobasso FC win: 45% at kick-off, 15% now
  14. 34′We said Campobasso FC at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–25–61
  15. 34′⚽ GOAL · 34' Campobasso FC 1–1 Perugia
  16. 34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' Campobasso FC win: 45% at kick-off, 39% now
  17. 35′Campobasso FC score on 35′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 39–37–24
  18. 43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Perugia win 23%)
  19. 45′SECOND HALF Campobasso FC 1–1 Perugia
  20. 46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Campobasso FC win: 45% at kick-off, 35% now
  21. 47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Perugia · On: R. Ladinetti · Off: E. Kabashi
  22. 47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Perugia · On: A. Sabbatani · Off: P. van Amersfoort
  23. 48′HALF-TIME Campobasso FC 1–1 Perugia
  24. 51′We said Campobasso FC at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 33%. 1–1 · 33–45–21
  25. 55′We said Campobasso FC at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 8%. 1–2 · 8–24–68
  26. 55′3 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 8–24–68
  27. 55′A goal for Perugia on 55′. 1–1 · 32–48–20
  28. 55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Campobasso FC 1–2 Perugia
  29. 55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Campobasso FC win: 45% at kick-off, 8% now
  30. 55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' Perugia win is now our likeliest result at 68% (was Draw 24%)
  31. 56′GOAL DISALLOWED · 56' Perugia
  32. 56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Campobasso FC win: 45% at kick-off, 31% now
  33. 56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' Draw is now our likeliest result at 49% (was Perugia win 20%)
  34. 56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Campobasso FC 1–2 Perugia · A. Tozzuolo
  35. 56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Campobasso FC win: 45% at kick-off, 8% now
  36. 56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' Perugia win is now our likeliest result at 69% (was Draw 23%)
  37. 61′Campobasso FC are down to ten from 61′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–2 · 6–22–72
  38. 61′🟥 RED CARD · 61' Campobasso FC
  39. 62′🟨 YELLOW · 61' E. Salines · Campobasso FC
  40. 63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Campobasso FC win: 45% at kick-off, 5% now
  41. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Campobasso FC · On: Isaac Prado · Off: A. Galeandro
  42. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Campobasso FC · On: L. Coccia · Off: A. Bifulco
  43. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Perugia · On: M. Cortesi · Off: L. Canotto
  44. 67′We said Campobasso FC at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–2 · 4–20–75
  45. 74′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Campobasso FC
  46. 76′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 0–2–98
  47. 76′⚽ GOAL · 76' Campobasso FC 1–3 Perugia
  48. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Campobasso FC · On: A. Pellitteri · Off: D. Agazzi
  49. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Campobasso FC · On: S. Leonardi · Off: M. Stoppa
  50. 77′A goal for Perugia on 77′ — 1–3. 1–3 · 0–2–98
  51. 80′C. Langella scores for Perugia on 76′ — 1–3. 1–3 · 0–1–99
  52. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Perugia · On: G. Renault · Off: G. Carriero
  53. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Perugia · On: C. Dottori · Off: A. Cisco
  54. 89′5 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 1–4 · 0–0–100
  55. 89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Campobasso FC 1–4 Perugia
  56. 90′Perugia score on 90′ to make it 1–4. 1–4 · 0–0–100
  57. 92′That is 6, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 1–5 · 0–0–100
  58. 92′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' Campobasso FC 1–5 Perugia
  59. 94′Perugia find the net on 90′. 1–5. 1–5 · 0–0–100
  60. 96′🟨 YELLOW · 90+6' Campobasso FC
  61. 97′1–5 at the end. Our 45% on Campobasso FC misses, and the record keeps it. 1–5 · 0–0–100
  62. FTFULL TIME Campobasso FC 1–5 Perugia
  63. FTCampobasso FC 1–5 Perugia · Campobasso FC win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Campobasso FC are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Campobasso FC 45%, draw 29%, Perugia 26%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Campobasso FC v PerugiaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Campobasso FC win45%
Draw29%
Perugia win26%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 11:30

RoundGirone B · matchday 10

VenueStadio Nuovo Romagnoli

RefereeA. Recchia

Line-ups

Campobasso FC

Perugia

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Campobasso FC

Perugia

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Serie C - Girone B

Last match: 11 Oct · Serie C - Girone B

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
8Perugia9−513
10Campobasso FC9−112

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Campobasso FC

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Spurio

18 R. Pierno

2 F. Papini

95 G. Corbo

4 C. Celesia

8 R. Di Vico

34 D. Agazzi

14 A. Bifulco

10 M. Stoppa

11 L. Carfora

92 A. Galeandro

Coach · Devis Mangia

Substitutes

22 · R. Apsits

99 · C. Muzi

31 · E. Salines

30 · L. Coccia

77 · C. Aragona

19 · L. Blasi

28 · F. Maisto

23 · A. Pellitteri

70 · S. Leonardi

7 · Isaac Prado

Perugia

Formation not confirmed

1 R. Zelezny

14 E. Quirini

28 D. Riccardi

4 A. Tozzuolo

11 M. Borsoi

7 A. Cisco

77 E. Kabashi

33 C. Langella

20 G. Carriero

30 P. van Amersfoort

10 L. Canotto

Coach · Aimo Diana

Substitutes

12 · L. Moro

55 · S. Strappini

39 · G. Cavallini

6 · M. Angeli

29 · G. Renault

31 · G. Conti

19 · C. Dottori

8 · R. Ladinetti

72 · M. Cortesi

26 · S. Seha

9 · A. Sabbatani

Our number · campobasso fc winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
45% The market41%
Us45%
Market41%

We make Campobasso FC a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Campobasso FC v Perugia1.43 – 1.01
Form · last six in Serie C - Girone B this season · since 12 SeptW2 D3 L1 · W2 D0 L4
Table places · points 12 v 1310 v 8
The market · Campobasso FC win41% · ours 45%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45%50% 12 OCT 04:0218 OCT 11:12
Our probability · Campobasso FC win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Campobasso FC win45%41%+4
Draw29%28%+1
Perugia win26%31%−5
Over 2.5 goals44%50%−6
Both teams to score49%55%−6
Over 1.5 goals71%74%−3
Over 3.5 goals23%29%−6
Campobasso FC or draw74%69%+5
Campobasso FC clean sheet37%––
Perugia clean sheet24%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.5%
0123450 10.2 7.7 4.5 1 11.3 13.5 6.2 2.1 2 8.8 8.7 4.4 3 4.3 4.2 2.1 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Campobasso FC down, Perugia across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting2.00
Over 2.52 of 4
Both scored2 of 4
Last meetingsPER 0–1 CAM · CAM 1–0 PER · CAM 2–1 PER · PER 2–1 CAM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie C - Girone B this season · since 12 Sept

CAMPOBASSO FC

WDDWDL1–0 · 2–2 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–3

PERUGIA

LLLWWL0–3 · 0–3 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 3–1 · 0–2

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Spezia9+1325
2Ravenna9+1120
3Grosseto10+819
4Reggiana9+717
5Guidonia Montecelio 193710+416
6Livorno10+116
7Torres10−115
8Perugia9−513
9Vado10012
10Campobasso FC9−112
11Pescara9−112
12Forli10011
13Latina9−110
14Ostia Mare9−19
15Atalanta II8−59
16Pianese10−48
17Pineto9−58
18Sambenedettese10−37
19Gubbio9−87
20Vis Pesaro8−94

The competition's standings before kick-off.