Atalanta II v Vis Pesaro prediction · Serie C

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Atalanta IIDrawVis Pesaro

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 17:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Atalanta II 43%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Atalanta II are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Atalanta II 43%, draw 29%, Vis Pesaro 28%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Atalanta II v Vis PesaroBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Atalanta II win43%

Draw29%

Vis Pesaro win28%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 17:00

RoundGirone B · matchday 8

VenueStadio Comunale

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Atalanta II

Vis Pesaro

4Days since last match4

Last match: 24 Oct · Serie C - Girone B

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
14	Atalanta II	10	−4	12
20	Vis Pesaro	10	−14	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · atalanta ii winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · updated 25 Oct 00:20 · locked at kick-off

43% The market–

Us43%

We make Atalanta II a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Atalanta II v Vis Pesaro~~1.39 – 1.06

~~Form · last six in Serie C - Girone B this season · since 16 Sept~~W2 D0 L4 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 12 v 4~~14 v 20

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Atalanta II win

Published at 42%, 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Atalanta II win	43%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Vis Pesaro win	28%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	44%	–	–
Both teams to score	50%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	71%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	23%	–	–
Atalanta II or draw	72%	–	–
Atalanta II clean sheet	35%	–	–
Vis Pesaro clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.5%

0123450 10.0 8.1 4.9 1 10.9 13.5 6.6 2.4 2 8.3 8.6 4.6 3 3.9 4.0 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Atalanta II down, Vis Pesaro across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,983 Serie C - Girone B matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie C - Girone B matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.3% of games this season, across 106 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2023/24.

Home and away form

Atalanta II at home: 1.25 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 4). Vis Pesaro away: 0.50 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.39 goals for Atalanta II, 1.06 for Vis Pesaro. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2023/24

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2023/24.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie C - Girone B this season · since 16 Sept

ATALANTA II

WLLLWL3–2 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 2–0 · 1–2

VIS PESARO

LLWLLL1–4 · 1–3 · 2–1 · 2–3 · 0–1 · 0–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Spezia	11	+14	29
2	Ravenna	11	+14	23
3	Grosseto	10	+8	19
4	Pescara	11	+2	18
5	Reggiana	10	+5	17
6	Guidonia Montecelio 1937	10	+4	16
7	Livorno	11	0	16
8	Perugia	11	−2	16
9	Vado	11	+1	15
10	Torres	10	−1	15
11	Campobasso FC	11	−4	15
12	Latina	11	0	14
13	Pineto	11	−2	14
14	Atalanta II	10	−4	12
15	Forli	10	0	11
16	Sambenedettese	11	−2	10
17	Ostia Mare	11	−4	9
18	Pianese	10	−4	8
19	Gubbio	11	−11	7
20	Vis Pesaro	10	−14	4