Atalanta II v Campobasso FC prediction · Serie C

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 16:33

Atalanta II 1–2 Campobasso FC ATALANTA II WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Atalanta II win~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.690

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Atalanta II win at 39%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Atalanta II 39% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 39–28–32
1′KICK-OFF Atalanta II v Campobasso FC
23′Atalanta II score on 23′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 69–20–11
23′⚽ GOAL · 23' Atalanta II 1–0 Campobasso FC
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Atalanta II win: 39% at kick-off, 69% now
24′We said Atalanta II at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 69%. 1–0 · 69–20–11
27′We said Atalanta II at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 1–0 · 70–20–11
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 1–0 · 70–20–10
31′🟨 YELLOW · 31' Campobasso FC
37′Campobasso FC find the net on 37′. 1–1. 1–1 · 34–37–29
37′⚽ GOAL · 37' Atalanta II 1–1 Campobasso FC
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Atalanta II win: 39% at kick-off, 34% now
40′Campobasso FC level it on 36′ through A. Bifulco. 1–1. 1–1 · 33–38–29
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Atalanta II win 71%)
45′HALF-TIME Atalanta II 1–1 Campobasso FC
46′SECOND HALF Atalanta II 1–1 Campobasso FC
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45+1' Atalanta II · On: A. Bonanomi · Off: F. Bergonzi
51′🟨 YELLOW · 50' Campobasso FC
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Atalanta II win: 39% at kick-off, 29% now
56′SUBSTITUTION · 54' Campobasso FC · On: Isaac Prado · Off: L. Carfora
56′SUBSTITUTION · 54' Campobasso FC · On: C. Cristallo · Off: R. Pierno
58′A goal for Campobasso FC on 58′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 6–21–73
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Atalanta II 1–2 Campobasso FC
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' Atalanta II win: 39% at kick-off, 6% now
58′THE CALL SWINGS · 58' Campobasso FC win is now our likeliest result at 73% (was Draw 48%)
59′We said Atalanta II at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 6%. 1–2 · 6–21–73
59′3 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 6–21–73
65′We said Atalanta II at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–2 · 4–20–76
66′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Atalanta II · On: G. Misitano · Off: A. Manzoni
66′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Atalanta II · On: S. Levak · Off: F. Mencaraglia
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Campobasso FC · On: A. Pellitteri · Off: M. Stoppa
87′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Campobasso FC · On: R. Fogliata · Off: D. Agazzi
87′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Campobasso FC · On: S. Leonardi · Off: A. Galeandro
90′Atalanta II are down to ten from 90′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–2 · 0–4–96
90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Atalanta II · On: F. Simonetto · Off: A. Navarro
90′🟥 RED CARD · 90' Atalanta II
94′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Atalanta II · On: N. Baldo · Off: T. De Nipoti
94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' Atalanta II
FTFULL TIME Atalanta II 1–2 Campobasso FC
FTAtalanta II 1–2 Campobasso FC · Atalanta II win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Atalanta II are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Atalanta II 39%, draw 28%, Campobasso FC 32%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Atalanta II v Campobasso FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Atalanta II win39%

Draw28%

Campobasso FC win32%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:30

RoundGirone B · matchday 11

VenueStadio Comunale

RefereeM. Marotta

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Atalanta II

Campobasso FC

6Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · Serie C - Girone B

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Atalanta II	9	−3	12
14	Campobasso FC	10	−5	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · atalanta ii winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:15 · locked at kick-off

39% The market–

Us39%

We make Atalanta II a 39% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Atalanta II v Campobasso FC~~1.39 – 1.24

~~Form · last six in Serie C - Girone B this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D0 L3 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 12 v 12~~13 v 14

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Atalanta II win

Published at 35%, 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Atalanta II win	39%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Campobasso FC win	32%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	49%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	74%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	27%	–	–
Atalanta II or draw	68%	–	–
Atalanta II clean sheet	29%	–	–
Campobasso FC clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.3%

0123450 8.6 8.0 5.6 2.3 1 9.1 13.3 7.5 3.1 2 7.0 8.4 5.2 2.2 3 3.3 3.9 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Atalanta II down, Campobasso FC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,979 Serie C - Girone B matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie C - Girone B matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.1% of games this season, across 102 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2023/24.

Home and away form

Atalanta II at home: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 3). Campobasso FC away: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.39 goals for Atalanta II, 1.24 for Campobasso FC. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2023/24

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2023/24.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie C - Girone B this season · since 12 Sept

ATALANTA II

WWLLLW2–1 · 3–2 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 2–0

CAMPOBASSO FC

DDWDLL2–2 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 1–5

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Spezia	10	+14	28
2	Ravenna	10	+10	20
3	Grosseto	10	+8	19
4	Pescara	11	+2	18
5	Reggiana	10	+5	17
6	Guidonia Montecelio 1937	10	+4	16
7	Livorno	10	+1	16
8	Perugia	11	−2	16
9	Vado	11	+1	15
10	Torres	10	−1	15
11	Pineto	11	−2	14
12	Latina	10	0	13
13	Atalanta II	9	−3	12
14	Campobasso FC	10	−5	12
15	Forli	10	0	11
16	Ostia Mare	11	−4	9
17	Pianese	10	−4	8
18	Sambenedettese	10	−3	7
19	Gubbio	11	−11	7
20	Vis Pesaro	9	−10	4