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Union Brescia v PRO Vercelli

Union Brescia

2–0Full time

PRO Vercelli

Serie C - Girone A · FRI 9 OCT · Stadio Mario Rigamonti

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 22:00

Union Brescia 2–0 PRO Vercelli UNION BRESCIA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Union Brescia win~~58%

~~The market said~~67%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.274

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.171

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Union Brescia win at 58%.
1′Much as we predicted: Union Brescia was 58% before kick-off and our model makes it 58% now. 0–0 · 58–25–17
1′KICK-OFF Union Brescia v PRO Vercelli
9′⚽ GOAL · 9' Union Brescia 1–0 PRO Vercelli
9′⚽ GOAL · 11' Union Brescia 1–0 PRO Vercelli
11′11′ and it is 1–0: Union Brescia have scored. 1–0 · 83–13–4
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 11' Union Brescia win: 58% at kick-off, 83% now
16′10′ and it is 1–0: V. Crespi on the scoresheet for Union Brescia. 1–0 · 83–13–4
16′🟨 YELLOW · 17' PRO Vercelli
20′We published Union Brescia at 58%. Our model now makes it 83%. 1–0 · 83–13–4
23′🟨 YELLOW · 24' Union Brescia
33′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 1–0 · 83–13–3
45′SECOND HALF Union Brescia 1–0 PRO Vercelli
46′HALF-TIME Union Brescia 1–0 PRO Vercelli
58′SUBSTITUTION · 58' PRO Vercelli · On: A. Carosso · Off: M. Pagliari
58′SUBSTITUTION · 59' PRO Vercelli · On: O. Sow · Off: M. Rutigliano
59′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Union Brescia · On: M. R. Frigerio · Off: A. Mallamo
60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Union Brescia · On: V. De Maria · Off: D. Balestrero
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Union Brescia · On: L. Armati · Off: T. Casasola
74′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Union Brescia
76′⚽ GOAL · 76' Union Brescia 2–0 PRO Vercelli · V. Crespi
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Union Brescia 2–0 PRO Vercelli
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Union Brescia 2–0 PRO Vercelli · J. Pellegrini
79′🟨 YELLOW · 80' PRO Vercelli
79′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Union Brescia
83′SUBSTITUTION · 84' PRO Vercelli · On: A. Moretti · Off: L. Van Koeverden
87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' PRO Vercelli · On: A. Satriano · Off: A. Burruano
FTFULL TIME Union Brescia 2–0 PRO Vercelli
FTUnion Brescia 2–0 PRO Vercelli · Union Brescia win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Union Brescia win58%

Draw26%

PRO Vercelli win17%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 19:30

Venue · Stadio Mario Rigamonti

Referee · S. Gasperotti

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Union Brescia

Formation not confirmed

43 G. Zacchi

95 S. Sina

28 L. Silvestri

8 D. Balestrero

15 T. Casasola

14 A. Mallamo

6 A. Mercati

25 A. Rizzo Pinna

24 B. Boci

91 A. Spagnoli

9 V. Crespi

Coach · Eugenio Corini

Substitutes

1 · L. Liverani

66 · S. Gori

4 · F. Sorensen

5 · N. Pasini

18 · V. De Maria

27 · A. Lamesta

72 · F. Armanini

26 · M. R. Frigerio

82 · L. Armati

7 · D. Di Molfetta

30 · J. Pellegrini

PRO Vercelli

Formation not confirmed

97 A. Livieri

16 N. Ronchi

4 L. Van Koeverden

3 L. Coccolo

18 L. Piran

8 A. Burruano

14 I. Iotti

5 A. Boufandar

25 M. Pagliari

9 M. Bertoli

10 M. Rutigliano

Coach · Daniele Bonera

Substitutes

77 · M. Del Favero

24 · R. Andreotti

28 · A. Carosso

30 · A. Moretti

17 · A. Ciammaglichella

6 · Z. el Bakkali

32 · G. Zacchera

45 · A. Satriano

7 · M. Mallahi

11 · O. Sow

69 · F. Patriarca

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Union Brescia

Formation not confirmed

43 G. Zacchi

95 S. Sina

28 L. Silvestri

8 D. Balestrero

15 T. Casasola

14 A. Mallamo

6 A. Mercati

25 A. Rizzo Pinna

24 B. Boci

91 A. Spagnoli

9 V. Crespi

Coach · Eugenio Corini

Substitutes

1 · L. Liverani

66 · S. Gori

4 · F. Sorensen

5 · N. Pasini

18 · V. De Maria

27 · A. Lamesta

72 · F. Armanini

26 · M. R. Frigerio

82 · L. Armati

7 · D. Di Molfetta

30 · J. Pellegrini

PRO Vercelli

Formation not confirmed

97 A. Livieri

16 N. Ronchi

4 L. Van Koeverden

3 L. Coccolo

18 L. Piran

8 A. Burruano

14 I. Iotti

5 A. Boufandar

25 M. Pagliari

9 M. Bertoli

10 M. Rutigliano

Coach · Daniele Bonera

Substitutes

77 · M. Del Favero

24 · R. Andreotti

28 · A. Carosso

30 · A. Moretti

17 · A. Ciammaglichella

6 · Z. el Bakkali

32 · G. Zacchera

45 · A. Satriano

7 · M. Mallahi

11 · O. Sow

69 · F. Patriarca

Our number · union brescia winPublished 9 Oct 19:34

58% The market67%

Us58%

~~Market~~67%

We make Union Brescia a 58% chance to win. The market has them at 67%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–0.7.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Union Brescia win	58%	67%	−9
Draw	26%	21%	+5
PRO Vercelli win	17%	13%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	42%	56%	−14
Both teams to score	42%	49%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	68%	77%	−9
Over 3.5 goals	21%	35%	−14
Union Brescia or draw	83%	87%	−4
Union Brescia clean sheet	48%	–	–
PRO Vercelli clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.8%

0123450 10.3 6.6 2.6 1 14.8 11.8 4.2 2 12.3 9.0 3.3 3 6.6 4.8 4 2.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Union Brescia down, PRO Vercelli across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,031 Serie C - Girone A matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie C - Girone A matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.1% of games this season, across 79 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Union Brescia at home: 1.83 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). PRO Vercelli away: 0.50 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.61 goals for Union Brescia, 0.74 for PRO Vercelli. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~PRO 0–0 UNI · UNI 5–0 PRO

Form · last six in Serie C - Girone A

UNION BRESCIA

WDDWDD1–0 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 4–0 · 1–1 · 2–2

PRO VERCELLI

WLDLDW1–0 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 0–4 · 1–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cittadella	8	+10	21
2	Union Brescia	8	+8	16
3	Ospitaletto	8	+8	15
4	Trento	8	+6	14
5	Arzignano Valchiampo	8	+3	14
6	Treviso	8	+2	13
7	Albinoleffe	8	+2	12
8	Alcione	8	−1	11
9	Dolomiti Bellunesi	8	0	10
10	Desenzano Calvina	8	−1	10
11	Novara	8	−2	9
12	Lecco	8	−2	9
13	PRO Vercelli	8	−3	9
14	Lumezzane	7	−2	8
15	Pergolettese	8	−2	8
16	Folgore Caratese	8	−3	6
17	Juventus U23	7	−6	6
18	Athletic Carpi	8	−7	6
19	Giana Erminio	8	−4	4
20	Renate	8	−6	3