Treviso v Ospitaletto prediction · Serie C

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Treviso 0–1 Ospitaletto TREVISO WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Treviso win~~38%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.704

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.760

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Treviso win at 38%.
1′Much as we predicted: Treviso was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 39–29–32
3′Much as we predicted: Treviso was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 38–30–32
22′F. Galuppini scores for Ospitaletto on 21′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 12–23–65
23′F. Galuppini scores for Ospitaletto on 21′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 12–23–65
44′We said Treviso at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 8%. 0–1 · 8–23–70
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Treviso win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
45′SECOND HALF Treviso 0–1 Ospitaletto
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Treviso win: 38% at kick-off, 12% now
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Treviso win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Treviso win: 38% at kick-off, 7% now
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 46' Ospitaletto win is now our likeliest result at 71% (was Treviso win 7%)
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Treviso win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Treviso win: 38% at kick-off, 12% now
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Treviso win: 38% at kick-off, 7% now
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Ospitaletto win is now our likeliest result at 71% (was Treviso win 7%)
48′We said Treviso at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 7%. 0–1 · 7–22–71
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Treviso win: 38% at kick-off, 12% now
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Treviso win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Treviso win: 38% at kick-off, 7% now
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Ospitaletto win is now our likeliest result at 71% (was Treviso win 7%)
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Treviso win: 38% at kick-off, 7% now
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Ospitaletto win is now our likeliest result at 71% (was Treviso win 7%)
60′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Treviso
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Treviso · On: L. Paganini · Off: F. Romeo
69′🟨 YELLOW · 70' Treviso
69′🟨 YELLOW · 70' Ospitaletto
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Ospitaletto · On: D. Stefanoni · Off: C. Messaggi
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Ospitaletto · On: S. Cantamessa · Off: E. Tigani
73′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Ospitaletto
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Treviso · On: D. Ndulue · Off: R. Gucher
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Ospitaletto · On: A. Torri · Off: F. Gobbi
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Ospitaletto · On: M. Valente · Off: F. Galuppini
84′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Treviso · On: M. Ceccacci · Off: A. Brigati
84′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Treviso · On: C. Mellino · Off: F. Ciuferri
91′🟨 YELLOW · 92' Treviso
FTFULL TIME Treviso 0–1 Ospitaletto
FTTreviso 0–1 Ospitaletto · Treviso win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Treviso win38%

Draw30%

Ospitaletto win32%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 16:30

VenueStadio Omobono Tenni

RefereeL. Angelillo

Line-ups

Treviso

Ospitaletto

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Treviso

Ospitaletto

7Days since last match8

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Ospitaletto	8	+8	15
6	Treviso	8	+2	13

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Treviso

Formation not confirmed

30 T. Nobile

8 D. Cappelletti

13 A. Maestrelli

5 D. Bove

2 A. Brigati

7 T. Brevi

4 G. Rossi

27 R. Gucher

25 F. Romeo

10 F. Ciuferri

9 C. Tommasini

Coach · –

Substitutes

22 · P. Leonardelli

1 · R. Bisetto

21 · M. Ceccacci

11 · C. Mellino

44 · F. Guiyong

76 · A. Lombardi

31 · C. Mbengue

17 · L. Paganini

78 · D. Ndulue

20 · D. Luderin

Ospitaletto

Formation not confirmed

22 M. Ferrante

16 M. Gualandris

15 P. Parmiggiani

4 R. Nessi

20 M. Casali

26 G. Mondini

28 M. Panatti

14 F. Galuppini

8 E. Tigani

7 C. Messaggi

9 F. Gobbi

Coach · Andrea Quaresmini

Substitutes

1 · C. Fratti

55 · R. Mundi

3 · M. Possenti

18 · M. Paganotti

24 · G. Valota

43 · M. Guarneri

10 · S. Cantamessa

77 · D. Stefanoni

11 · F. Ragnoli Galli

17 · A. Plutnik

45 · M. Valente

21 · A. Torri

Our number · treviso winPublished 11 Oct 16:29

38% The market41%

Us38%

~~Market~~41%

We make Treviso a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · treviso win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 40% to 41% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Treviso win	38%	41%	−3
Draw	30%	30%	0
Ospitaletto win	32%	29%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	37%	43%	−5
Both teams to score	44%	49%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	65%	67%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	18%	24%	−6
Treviso or draw	68%	71%	−3
Treviso clean sheet	36%	–	–
Ospitaletto clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.8%

0123450 12.1 10.9 6.0 2.1 1 12.4 13.8 6.8 2.4 2 7.5 7.6 3.9 3 2.9 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Treviso down, Ospitaletto across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,037 Serie C - Girone A matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie C - Girone A matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.2% of games this season, across 85 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Treviso at home: 0.75 scored, 0.25 conceded a game (last 4). Ospitaletto away: 0.83 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.16 goals for Treviso, 1.03 for Ospitaletto. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Serie C - Girone A

TREVISO

DWDDWD1–1 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 0–0

OSPITALETTO

WWDLWD3–1 · 3–0 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cittadella	9	+12	24
2	Union Brescia	9	+10	19
3	Arzignano Valchiampo	9	+4	17
4	Ospitaletto	8	+8	15
5	Trento	8	+6	14
6	Treviso	8	+2	13
7	Desenzano Calvina	9	+1	13
8	Albinoleffe	9	+1	12
9	Alcione	8	−1	11
10	Lumezzane	8	−1	11
11	Pergolettese	9	−1	11
12	Dolomiti Bellunesi	9	−2	10
13	Lecco	8	−2	9
14	Novara	9	−4	9
15	PRO Vercelli	9	−5	9
16	Folgore Caratese	8	−3	6
17	Juventus U23	8	−7	6
18	Athletic Carpi	9	−8	6
19	Giana Erminio	8	−4	4
20	Renate	8	−6	3