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Treviso v Dolomiti Bellunesi

Treviso
2–1Full time
Dolomiti Bellunesi

Serie C - Girone A · SAT 24 OCT · Stadio Omobono Tenni

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 16:33
Treviso 2–1 Dolomiti Bellunesi TREVISO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Treviso win50%
The market said59%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.375
The market’s Brier score0.256

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 27 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Treviso win at 50%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Treviso was 50% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 50–28–22
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Treviso v Dolomiti Bellunesi
  4. 31′We published Treviso at 50%. Our model now makes it 79%. 1–0 · 79–16–5
  5. 31′Goals are coming at about the 2.3 we expected. 1–0 · 79–16–5
  6. 31′⚽ GOAL · 31' Treviso 1–0 Dolomiti Bellunesi
  7. 31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Treviso win: 50% at kick-off, 79% now
  8. 32′Treviso find the net on 32′. 1–0. 1–0 · 79–16–5
  9. 37′We published Treviso at 50%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–16–5
  10. 37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Treviso win: 50% at kick-off, 80% now
  11. 45′SECOND HALF Treviso 1–0 Dolomiti Bellunesi
  12. 46′HALF-TIME Treviso 1–0 Dolomiti Bellunesi
  13. 46′🟨 YELLOW · 33' A. Bonatti · Dolomiti Bellunesi
  14. 56′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Treviso
  15. 59′🟨 YELLOW · 58' Treviso
  16. 63′We published Treviso at 50%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
  17. 63′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Dolomiti Bellunesi · On: M. Kowalski · Off: R. Ba
  18. 63′🟨 YELLOW · 62' N. Lewis · Dolomiti Bellunesi
  19. 67′We said Treviso at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 26%. 1–1 · 26–60–14
  20. 67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Treviso 1–1 Dolomiti Bellunesi
  21. 67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Treviso win: 50% at kick-off, 26% now
  22. 67′THE CALL SWINGS · 67' Draw is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Treviso win 86%)
  23. 68′A goal for Dolomiti Bellunesi on 68′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 25–61–14
  24. 69′We said Treviso at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–63–13
  25. 70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Treviso · On: F. Romeo · Off: A. Brigati
  26. 74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Treviso win: 50% at kick-off, 20% now
  27. 75′We said Treviso at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–71–11
  28. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Dolomiti Bellunesi · On: L. Clemenza · Off: Z. Beltaief
  29. 80′We said Treviso at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–79–8
  30. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Treviso · On: T. Brevi · Off: R. Gucher
  31. 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Treviso win: 50% at kick-off, 10% now
  32. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Treviso · On: M. Ceccacci · Off: A. Maestrelli
  33. 84′We said Treviso at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–86–5
  34. 87′We published Treviso at 50%. Our model now makes it 96%. 2–1 · 96–4–0
  35. 87′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.3 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 96–4–0
  36. 87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Treviso 2–1 Dolomiti Bellunesi
  37. 87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Treviso win: 50% at kick-off, 96% now
  38. 87′THE CALL SWINGS · 87' Treviso win is now our likeliest result at 96% (was Draw 88%)
  39. 89′87′: F. Romeo on the scoresheet for Treviso, making it 2–1. 2–1 · 97–3–0
  40. 93′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' Dolomiti Bellunesi · On: F. Estrella Galeazzi · Off: E. Toci
  41. 93′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' Treviso · On: C. Mellino · Off: F. Ciuferri
  42. 93′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' Treviso · On: D. Ndulue · Off: C. Tommasini
  43. 94′Full time, 2–1. We called Treviso at 50% — that one lands. 2–1 · 100–0–0
  44. FTFULL TIME Treviso 2–1 Dolomiti Bellunesi
  45. FTTreviso 2–1 Dolomiti Bellunesi · Treviso win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Treviso are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Treviso 50%, draw 28%, Dolomiti Bellunesi 22%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Treviso v Dolomiti BellunesiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Treviso win50%
Draw28%
Dolomiti Bellunesi win22%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:30

RoundGirone A · matchday 11

VenueStadio Omobono Tenni

RefereeG. Totaro

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Treviso

Dolomiti Bellunesi

7Days since last match5

Last match: 17 Oct · Serie C - Girone A

Last match: 19 Oct · Serie C - Girone A

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
6Treviso10+316
14Dolomiti Bellunesi10−510

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · treviso winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 20 Oct 00:13 · locked at kick-off
50% The market59%
Us50%
Market59%

We make Treviso a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 59%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Treviso v Dolomiti Bellunesi1.45 – 0.86
Form · last six in Serie C - Girone A this season · since 17 SeptW2 D3 L1 · W0 D2 L4
Table places · points 16 v 106 v 14
The market · Treviso win59% · ours 50%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55%60%65% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 12:52
Our probability · Treviso win The market, margin stripped

Published at 49%, 50% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 59% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Treviso win50%59%−9
Draw28%25%+3
Dolomiti Bellunesi win22%16%+6
Over 2.5 goals40%45%−5
Both teams to score44%44%0
Over 1.5 goals67%69%−2
Over 3.5 goals20%25%−5
Treviso or draw78%84%−6
Treviso clean sheet43%––
Dolomiti Bellunesi clean sheet24%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.9%
0123450 10.8 8.1 3.7 1 13.9 12.8 5.3 2 10.3 8.8 3.8 3 5.0 4.3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Treviso down, Dolomiti Bellunesi across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2023/24
Goals a meeting2.00
Over 2.53 of 7
Both scored3 of 7
Last meetingsDOL 1–0 TRE · DOL 1–1 TRE · TRE 2–1 DOL · TRE 0–0 DOL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie C - Girone A this season · since 17 Sept

TREVISO

DDWDLW2–2 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 2–0

DOLOMITI BELLUNESI

DLDLLL0–0 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 0–3

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Cittadella10+1327
2Trento10+1020
3Union Brescia10+919
4Ospitaletto10+818
5Arzignano Valchiampo10+317
6Treviso10+316
7Alcione10+215
8Pergolettese10014
9Lecco10+313
10Albinoleffe10+113
11Desenzano Calvina10−213
12Lumezzane10−312
13Novara10−410
14Dolomiti Bellunesi10−510
15Juventus U2310−610
16Athletic Carpi10−69
17PRO Vercelli10−109
18Giana Erminio10−38
19Folgore Caratese10−66
20Renate10−74

The competition's standings before kick-off.