Trento v Juventus U23 prediction · Serie C

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

TrentoDrawJuventus U23

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Trento 53%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Trento are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Trento 53%, draw 26%, Juventus U23 21%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Trento v Juventus U23Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Trento win53%

Draw26%

Juventus U23 win21%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 11:30

RoundGirone A · matchday 11

VenueStadio Briamasco

RefereeM. Faye

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Trento

Juventus U23

6Days since last match6

Last match: 19 Oct · Serie C - Girone A

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Trento	10	+10	20
15	Juventus U23	10	−6	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · trento winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · updated 21 Oct 03:56 · locked at kick-off

53% The market55%

Us53%

~~Market~~55%

We make Trento a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.6–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Trento v Juventus U23~~1.59 – 0.90

~~Form · last six in Serie C - Girone A this season · since 17 Sept~~W3 D3 L0 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 20 v 10~~3 v 15

~~The market · Trento win~~55% · ours 53%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Trento win The market, margin stripped

Published at 52%, 53% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 55% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Trento win	53%	55%	−2
Draw	26%	25%	+1
Juventus U23 win	21%	20%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	45%	50%	−5
Both teams to score	47%	51%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	71%	73%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	24%	29%	−5
Trento or draw	79%	80%	−1
Trento clean sheet	41%	–	–
Juventus U23 clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.7%

0123450 9.1 7.1 3.4 1 12.7 12.2 5.3 2 10.3 9.2 4.1 3 5.5 4.9 2.2 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Trento down, Juventus U23 across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,055 Serie C - Girone A matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie C - Girone A matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.5% of games this season, across 103 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Trento at home: 1.83 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Juventus U23 away: 0.83 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.59 goals for Trento, 0.90 for Juventus U23. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~TRE 2–1 JUV · JUV 2–0 TRE · TRE 1–1 JUV · JUV 2–1 TRE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie C - Girone A this season · since 17 Sept

TRENTO

DWDDWW2–2 · 4–0 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 3–0

JUVENTUS U23

LLDLDW0–2 · 3–5 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cittadella	11	+12	27
2	Union Brescia	11	+10	22
3	Trento	10	+10	20
4	Treviso	11	+4	19
5	Ospitaletto	10	+8	18
6	Arzignano Valchiampo	10	+3	17
7	Alcione	11	+1	15
8	Pergolettese	10	0	14
9	Lecco	10	+3	13
10	Albinoleffe	10	+1	13
11	Desenzano Calvina	10	−2	13
12	Lumezzane	10	−3	12
13	Athletic Carpi	11	−5	12
14	Novara	10	−4	10
15	Juventus U23	10	−6	10
16	Dolomiti Bellunesi	11	−6	10
17	PRO Vercelli	10	−10	9
18	Giana Erminio	10	−3	8
19	Folgore Caratese	10	−6	6
20	Renate	10	−7	4