Trento v Folgore Caratese prediction · Serie C

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Trento 1–0 Folgore Caratese TRENTO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Trento win~~50%

~~The market said~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.377

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.333

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Trento win at 50%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Trento 50% before kick-off, 50% now. 0–0 · 50–26–24
1′KICK-OFF Trento v Folgore Caratese
2′Little has changed for our model: Trento 50% before kick-off, 50% now. 0–0 · 50–26–24
14′SUBSTITUTION · 12' Trento · On: A. Mehic · Off: R. D'Intino
18′🟨 YELLOW · 18' Trento
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Trento win: 50% at kick-off, 40% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Trento win: 50% at kick-off, 46% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Trento win: 50% at kick-off, 46% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Trento win: 50% at kick-off, 40% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Trento win: 50% at kick-off, 40% now
45′SECOND HALF Trento 0–0 Folgore Caratese
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Trento win: 50% at kick-off, 39% now
47′HALF-TIME Trento 0–0 Folgore Caratese
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Trento win: 50% at kick-off, 39% now
49′🟨 YELLOW · 49' Folgore Caratese
55′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Trento
61′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Trento · On: F. Accornero · Off: A. Sodero
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Trento 1–0 Folgore Caratese
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Folgore Caratese · On: A. Santarcangelo · Off: S. Spalluto
68′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Folgore Caratese · On: F. Di Dio · Off: A. Tessiore
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Trento 1–0 Folgore Caratese
71′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Folgore Caratese
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Folgore Caratese · On: S. Cester · Off: F. Minerva
79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Folgore Caratese · On: E. Bellia · Off: E. Ndoj
79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Folgore Caratese · On: K. Mezsargs · Off: T. Duca
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Trento · On: M. Garetto · Off: G. Benedetti
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Trento · On: F. Caia · Off: J. I. Molina
FTFULL TIME Trento 1–0 Folgore Caratese
FTTrento 1–0 Folgore Caratese · Trento win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Trento win50%

Draw27%

Folgore Caratese win23%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 16:30

VenueStadio Briamasco

RefereeM. Zini

Line-ups

Trento

Folgore Caratese

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Trento

Folgore Caratese

7Days since last match8

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Trento	8	+6	14
16	Folgore Caratese	8	−3	6

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Trento

Formation not confirmed

1 S. Barlocco

44 M. Maffei

5 S. Kassama

18 F. Benassai

3 R. D'Intino

6 M. Fossati

14 A. Sodero

23 C. Aucelli

8 G. Benedetti

21 M. Ladisa

9 J. I. Molina

Coach · Luca Tabbiani

Substitutes

12 · L. Santer

22 · E. Goller

4 · A. Trainotti

27 · F. Frison

19 · Z. Muca

70 · G. Calza

11 · F. Accornero

80 · M. Garetto

25 · A. Mehic

73 · J. Grossi

37 · A. Genco

99 · F. Sartori

95 · F. Caia

Folgore Caratese

Formation not confirmed

1 D. Salvalaggio

19 T. Duca

21 E. Gega

43 A. Bassino

29 F. Minerva

6 E. Ndoj

8 F. Castellano

11 M. Balzano

92 A. Tessiore

9 S. Spalluto

99 F. D'Amico

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · M. Castelnuovo

22 · T. Facchini

24 · E. Bellia

28 · L. Pedicillo

7 · S. Cester

80 · F. Di Dio

18 · M. Ambrosini

72 · M. Vignoli

61 · A. Santarcangelo

77 · K. Mezsargs

10 · A. Vacca

Our number · trento winPublished 11 Oct 16:29

50% The market53%

Us50%

~~Market~~53%

We make Trento a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · trento win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 60% to 53% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Trento win	50%	53%	−3
Draw	27%	27%	0
Folgore Caratese win	23%	20%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	46%	46%	0
Both teams to score	49%	48%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	72%	70%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	25%	26%	−1
Trento or draw	77%	80%	−3
Trento clean sheet	38%	–	–
Folgore Caratese clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 8.9 7.4 3.9 1 11.9 12.5 5.8 2 9.6 9.2 4.4 3 5.0 4.7 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Trento down, Folgore Caratese across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,037 Serie C - Girone A matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie C - Girone A matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.2% of games this season, across 85 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Trento at home: 1.83 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Folgore Caratese away: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

1.54 goals for Trento, 0.97 for Folgore Caratese. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Serie C - Girone A

TRENTO

WDDWDD1–0 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 4–0 · 0–0 · 2–2

FOLGORE CARATESE

LLDDWL0–1 · 2–3 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cittadella	9	+12	24
2	Union Brescia	9	+10	19
3	Arzignano Valchiampo	9	+4	17
4	Ospitaletto	8	+8	15
5	Trento	8	+6	14
6	Treviso	8	+2	13
7	Desenzano Calvina	9	+1	13
8	Albinoleffe	9	+1	12
9	Alcione	8	−1	11
10	Lumezzane	8	−1	11
11	Pergolettese	9	−1	11
12	Dolomiti Bellunesi	9	−2	10
13	Lecco	8	−2	9
14	Novara	9	−4	9
15	PRO Vercelli	9	−5	9
16	Folgore Caratese	8	−3	6
17	Juventus U23	8	−7	6
18	Athletic Carpi	9	−8	6
19	Giana Erminio	8	−4	4
20	Renate	8	−6	3