Renate v Giana Erminio prediction · Serie C

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:04

Renate 2–2 Giana Erminio RENATE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Renate win~~41%

~~The market said~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.730

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.811

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 35 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Renate win at 41%.
1′Much as we predicted: Renate was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 41–30–29
1′KICK-OFF Renate v Giana Erminio
2′Much as we predicted: Renate was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 41–30–29
10′⚽ GOAL · 10' Renate 1–0 Giana Erminio
11′⚽ GOAL · 11' Renate 1–0 Giana Erminio
11′⚽ GOAL · 12' Renate 1–0 Giana Erminio
18′⚽ GOAL · 18' Renate 1–0 Giana Erminio
18′⚽ GOAL · 20' Renate 1–0 Giana Erminio
21′Renate find the net on 20′. 1–0. 1–0 · 72–19–8
21′🟨 YELLOW · 22' Giana Erminio
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Renate win: 41% at kick-off, 72% now
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 21' Renate win: 41% at kick-off, 41% now
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Renate win: 41% at kick-off, 41% now
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Renate win: 41% at kick-off, 72% now
24′Renate ahead on 19′ through M. Cali. 1–0. 1–0 · 73–19–8
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Renate win: 41% at kick-off, 73% now
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Renate win: 41% at kick-off, 41% now
45′We published Renate at 41%. Our model now makes it 76%. 1–0 · 76–19–5
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Renate win: 41% at kick-off, 76% now
45′SECOND HALF Renate 1–0 Giana Erminio
45′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Giana Erminio · On: P. Tornaghi · Off: S. Ghezzi
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Renate win: 41% at kick-off, 76% now
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Renate win: 41% at kick-off, 76% now
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Renate win: 41% at kick-off, 76% now
59′⚽ GOAL · 61' Renate 1–0 Giana Erminio
61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Renate 1–1 Giana Erminio · M. Cali
65′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Renate · On: A. Bonetti · Off: F. Vassallo
65′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Giana Erminio · On: M. Ballabio · Off: M. Zanchetta
65′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Giana Erminio · On: T. Nucifero · Off: L. Ruffini
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Renate 2–1 Giana Erminio · C. Riviera
68′⚽ GOAL · 69' Renate 2–1 Giana Erminio
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Renate 2–1 Giana Erminio · L. Kerrigan
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Renate · On: A. Motoc · Off: L. Kerrigan
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Renate · On: M. Tempre · Off: T. Botrini
75′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Giana Erminio · On: L. Magazzu · Off: L. Samele
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Renate 2–2 Giana Erminio · L. Kerrigan
80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Renate 2–2 Giana Erminio
92′🟨 YELLOW · 93' Giana Erminio
94′🟨 YELLOW · 94' Giana Erminio
FTFULL TIME Renate 2–2 Giana Erminio
FTRenate 2–2 Giana Erminio · Renate win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

Get the 30-day pass ›

Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Renate win41%

Draw31%

Giana Erminio win29%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 13:30

VenueMino Favini

RefereeD. Kovacevic

Line-ups

Renate

Giana Erminio

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Renate

Giana Erminio

8Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
19	Giana Erminio	8	−4	4
20	Renate	8	−6	3

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Renate

Formation not confirmed

30 M. Avella

29 T. Botrini

5 S. Auriletto

21 C. Riviera

47 L. Kerrigan

11 A. Delcarro

10 S. Careccia

25 F. Vassallo

14 M. Cali

92 N. Anelli

7 J. Italeng

Coach · Simone Banchieri

Substitutes

12 · A. Bartoccioni

33 · M. Tempre

13 · A. Motoc

15 · M. Suarez

73 · G. Minotti

23 · L. Gobbo

2 · R. De Zen

4 · F. Vigano

17 · A. Bonetti

72 · G. Mastromonaco

8 · S. Dore

71 · P. Ruiz Giraldo

20 · S. Zalazar

Giana Erminio

Formation not confirmed

22 A. Mazza

19 C. Mora

5 S. Ghezzi

60 E. Rovinelli

24 L. Ruffini

14 M. Marotta

25 M. Zanchetta

11 S. Comelli

7 D. Pinto

10 F. Renda

29 L. Samele

Coach · Mario Tacchinardi

Substitutes

1 · A. Zenti

12 · E. Azzolari

28 · C. Di Bitonto

4 · A. Piazza

23 · P. Tornaghi

13 · M. Golin

27 · F. Manzoni

21 · E. Muhameti

3 · T. Nucifero

26 · M. Ballabio

6 · N. Saggionetto

8 · L. Magazzu

9 · A. Quaggio

Our number · renate winPublished 11 Oct 13:43

41% The market47%

Us41%

~~Market~~47%

We make Renate a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · renate win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 45% to 48% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Renate win	41%	47%	−7
Draw	31%	28%	+3
Giana Erminio win	29%	25%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	36%	47%	−11
Both teams to score	43%	51%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	63%	71%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	17%	27%	−10
Renate or draw	71%	75%	−4
Renate clean sheet	39%	–	–
Giana Erminio clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.8%

0123450 12.6 10.6 5.3 1 13.4 13.8 6.2 2 8.3 7.8 3.7 3 3.3 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Renate down, Giana Erminio across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,037 Serie C - Girone A matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie C - Girone A matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.2% of games this season, across 85 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 2.12 goals a meeting; 3 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Renate at home: 0.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Giana Erminio away: 0.50 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.19 goals for Renate, 0.95 for Giana Erminio. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.12

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 8

~~Both scored~~4 of 8

~~Last meetings~~GIA 0–1 REN · REN 1–1 GIA · GIA 2–1 REN · REN 1–0 GIA

Form · last six in Serie C - Girone A

RENATE

LDDLLD1–2 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 1–1

GIANA ERMINIO

LLDDDD1–2 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cittadella	9	+12	24
2	Union Brescia	9	+10	19
3	Arzignano Valchiampo	9	+4	17
4	Ospitaletto	8	+8	15
5	Trento	8	+6	14
6	Treviso	8	+2	13
7	Desenzano Calvina	9	+1	13
8	Albinoleffe	9	+1	12
9	Alcione	8	−1	11
10	Lumezzane	8	−1	11
11	Pergolettese	9	−1	11
12	Dolomiti Bellunesi	9	−2	10
13	Lecco	8	−2	9
14	Novara	9	−4	9
15	PRO Vercelli	9	−5	9
16	Folgore Caratese	8	−3	6
17	Juventus U23	8	−7	6
18	Athletic Carpi	9	−8	6
19	Giana Erminio	8	−4	4
20	Renate	8	−6	3