Renate v Albinoleffe prediction · Serie C

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

RenateDrawAlbinoleffe

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Renate 40%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Renate are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Renate 40%, draw 28%, Albinoleffe 32%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Renate v AlbinoleffeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Renate win40%

Draw28%

Albinoleffe win32%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 11:30

RoundGirone A · matchday 11

VenueMino Favini

RefereeF. Aloise

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Renate

Albinoleffe

6Days since last match7

Last match: 19 Oct · Serie C - Girone A

Last match: 18 Oct · Serie C - Girone A

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Albinoleffe	10	+1	13
20	Renate	10	−7	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · renate winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

40% The market41%

Us40%

~~Market~~41%

We make Renate a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Renate v Albinoleffe~~1.34 – 1.18

~~Form · last six in Serie C - Girone A this season · since 17 Sept~~W0 D3 L3 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 4 v 13~~20 v 10

~~The market · Renate win~~41% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Renate win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Renate win	40%	41%	−1
Draw	28%	29%	−1
Albinoleffe win	32%	30%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	46%	50%	−4
Both teams to score	51%	55%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	72%	73%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	25%	29%	−4
Renate or draw	68%	70%	−2
Renate clean sheet	31%	–	–
Albinoleffe clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.2%

0123450 8.8 9.0 5.6 2.2 1 10.3 13.2 7.4 2.9 2 7.2 8.4 4.9 3 3.2 3.8 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Renate down, Albinoleffe across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,055 Serie C - Girone A matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie C - Girone A matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.5% of games this season, across 103 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.10 goals a meeting; 2 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Renate at home: 0.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Albinoleffe away: 2.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.34 goals for Renate, 1.18 for Albinoleffe. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.10

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~REN 1–1 ALB · ALB 2–3 REN · ALB 1–0 REN · REN 0–2 ALB

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie C - Girone A this season · since 17 Sept

RENATE

DLLDDL0–0 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 1–2

ALBINOLEFFE

LWDWLD1–2 · 5–3 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 2–3 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cittadella	11	+12	27
2	Union Brescia	11	+10	22
3	Trento	10	+10	20
4	Treviso	11	+4	19
5	Ospitaletto	10	+8	18
6	Arzignano Valchiampo	10	+3	17
7	Alcione	11	+1	15
8	Pergolettese	10	0	14
9	Lecco	10	+3	13
10	Albinoleffe	10	+1	13
11	Desenzano Calvina	10	−2	13
12	Lumezzane	10	−3	12
13	Athletic Carpi	11	−5	12
14	Novara	10	−4	10
15	Juventus U23	10	−6	10
16	Dolomiti Bellunesi	11	−6	10
17	PRO Vercelli	10	−10	9
18	Giana Erminio	10	−3	8
19	Folgore Caratese	10	−6	6
20	Renate	10	−7	4