PRO Vercelli v Ospitaletto prediction · Serie C

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

PRO VercelliDrawOspitaletto

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Ospitaletto 44%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ospitaletto are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: PRO Vercelli 28%, draw 28%, Ospitaletto 44%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on PRO Vercelli v OspitalettoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

PRO Vercelli win28%

Draw28%

Ospitaletto win44%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 16:30

RoundGirone A · matchday 11

VenueStadio Silvio Piola

RefereeC. Aldi

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

PRO Vercelli

Ospitaletto

9Days since last match7

Last match: 16 Oct · Serie C - Girone A

Last match: 18 Oct · Serie C - Girone A

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Ospitaletto	10	+8	18
17	PRO Vercelli	10	−10	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ospitaletto winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

44% The market47%

Us44%

~~Market~~47%

We make Ospitaletto a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · PRO Vercelli v Ospitaletto~~1.04 – 1.37

~~Form · last six in Serie C - Girone A this season · since 17 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 9 v 18~~17 v 4

~~The market · Ospitaletto win~~47% · ours 44%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Ospitaletto win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
PRO Vercelli win	28%	26%	+2
Draw	28%	27%	+1
Ospitaletto win	44%	47%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	43%	52%	−9
Both teams to score	48%	56%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	70%	75%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	23%	31%	−8
PRO Vercelli or draw	56%	53%	+3
PRO Vercelli clean sheet	26%	–	–
Ospitaletto clean sheet	36%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.2%

0123450 9.7 11.7 8.4 3.9 1 8.8 13.2 8.6 4.0 2 4.9 6.6 4.5 2.1 3 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+PRO Vercelli down, Ospitaletto across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,052 Serie C - Girone A matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie C - Girone A matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.0% of games this season, across 100 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

PRO Vercelli at home: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Ospitaletto away: 1.00 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.04 goals for PRO Vercelli, 1.37 for Ospitaletto. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~PRO 1–0 OSP · OSP 2–0 PRO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie C - Girone A this season · since 17 Sept

PRO VERCELLI

DLDWLL2–2 · 0–4 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 0–2 · 0–5

OSPITALETTO

DLWDWL2–2 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 2–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cittadella	10	+13	27
2	Trento	10	+10	20
3	Union Brescia	10	+9	19
4	Ospitaletto	10	+8	18
5	Arzignano Valchiampo	10	+3	17
6	Treviso	10	+3	16
7	Alcione	10	+2	15
8	Pergolettese	10	0	14
9	Lecco	10	+3	13
10	Albinoleffe	10	+1	13
11	Desenzano Calvina	10	−2	13
12	Lumezzane	10	−3	12
13	Novara	10	−4	10
14	Dolomiti Bellunesi	10	−5	10
15	Juventus U23	10	−6	10
16	Athletic Carpi	10	−6	9
17	PRO Vercelli	10	−10	9
18	Giana Erminio	10	−3	8
19	Folgore Caratese	10	−6	6
20	Renate	10	−7	4