PRO Vercelli v Lecco prediction · Serie C

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 22:01

PRO Vercelli 0–5 Lecco LECCO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Lecco win~~40%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.546

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.562

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Lecco win at 40%.
1′Much as we predicted: Lecco was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 31–29–40
1′KICK-OFF PRO Vercelli v Lecco
7′🟨 YELLOW · 7' PRO Vercelli
17′🟨 YELLOW · 17' Lecco
21′We published Lecco at 40%. Our model now makes it 71%. 0–1 · 9–20–71
21′⚽ GOAL · 21' PRO Vercelli 0–1 Lecco
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Lecco win: 40% at kick-off, 71% now
22′Lecco score on 22′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 9–20–71
23′21′: G. Pellegrino on the scoresheet for Lecco, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 9–20–71
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.2 we expected. 0–1 · 8–20–72
41′🟨 YELLOW · 41' PRO Vercelli
43′We published Lecco at 40%. Our model now makes it 75%. 0–1 · 6–20–75
43′We published Lecco at 40%. Our model now makes it 94%. 0–2 · 1–5–94
43′⚽ GOAL · 43' PRO Vercelli 0–2 Lecco
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Lecco win: 40% at kick-off, 94% now
45′Lecco find the net on 44′. 0–2. 0–2 · 1–5–94
45′SECOND HALF PRO Vercelli 0–2 Lecco
46′We published Lecco at 40%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–2 · 1–5–95
46′HALF-TIME PRO Vercelli 0–2 Lecco
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' PRO Vercelli · On: A. Ciammaglichella · Off: Z. el Bakkali
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Lecco · On: S. Bonaiti · Off: A. Mallamo
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' PRO Vercelli · On: A. Carosso · Off: L. Van Koeverden
49′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.2 across ninety minutes. 0–3 · 0–1–99
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' PRO Vercelli 0–3 Lecco
50′A goal for Lecco on 50′ — 0–3. 0–3 · 0–1–99
51′We published Lecco at 40%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–4 · 0–0–100
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' PRO Vercelli 0–4 Lecco
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Lecco win: 40% at kick-off, over 99% now
52′4 goals already, more than the 2.2 we expected for the whole match. 0–4 · 0–0–100
52′Lecco score on 52′ to make it 0–4. 0–4 · 0–0–100
54′🟨 YELLOW · 53' PRO Vercelli
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Lecco · On: N. Fasan · Off: M. Casarotto
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Lecco · On: M. Litti · Off: G. Manetti
78′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.2 across ninety minutes. 0–5 · 0–0–100
78′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Lecco · On: L. Mihali · Off: G. Pellegrino
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' PRO Vercelli 0–5 Lecco
79′Lecco find the net on 78′. 0–5. 0–5 · 0–0–100
81′SUBSTITUTION · 79' PRO Vercelli · On: N. Ronchi · Off: A. Moretti
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' PRO Vercelli · On: M. Mallahi · Off: O. Sow
81′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Lecco
86′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Lecco · On: S. Fama · Off: A. Capello
92′Full time, 0–5. We called Lecco at 40% — that one lands. 0–5 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME PRO Vercelli 0–5 Lecco
FTPRO Vercelli 0–5 Lecco · Lecco win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Lecco are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: PRO Vercelli 30%, draw 30%, Lecco 40%. Over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on PRO Vercelli v LeccoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

PRO Vercelli win30%

Draw30%

Lecco win40%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 19:30

RoundGirone A · matchday 10

VenueStadio Silvio Piola

RefereeV. Vogliacco

Line-ups

PRO Vercelli

Lecco

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

PRO Vercelli

Lecco

7Days since last match5

Last match: 9 Oct · Serie C - Girone A

Last match: 11 Oct · Serie C - Girone A

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Lecco	9	−2	10
15	PRO Vercelli	9	−5	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

PRO Vercelli

Formation not confirmed

97 A. Livieri

30 A. Moretti

4 L. Van Koeverden

3 L. Coccolo

18 L. Piran

14 I. Iotti

6 Z. el Bakkali

8 A. Burruano

25 M. Pagliari

9 M. Bertoli

11 O. Sow

Coach · Daniele Bonera

Substitutes

77 · M. Del Favero

24 · R. Andreotti

16 · N. Ronchi

28 · A. Carosso

17 · A. Ciammaglichella

32 · G. Zacchera

45 · A. Satriano

7 · M. Mallahi

69 · F. Patriarca

Lecco

Formation not confirmed

22 T. Vettorel

45 M. Rizzo

5 M. Arena

24 S. Sidler

11 O. Urso

21 A. Metlika

6 A. Mallamo

99 G. Manetti

17 G. Pellegrino

10 A. Capello

9 M. Casarotto

Coach · Federico Valente

Substitutes

1 · J. Dalmasso

4 · P. Comi

13 · T. Bordoni

27 · D. Triacca

19 · M. Litti

8 · S. Bonaiti

78 · J. Anastasini

75 · E. Nova

20 · L. Mihali

83 · S. Fama

30 · N. Fasan

15 · A. Murillo

Our number · lecco winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

40% The market39%

Us40%

~~Market~~39%

We make Lecco a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.0–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · PRO Vercelli v Lecco~~1.01 – 1.20

~~Form · last six in Serie C - Girone A this season · since 13 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 9 v 10~~15 v 12

~~The market · Lecco win~~39% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Lecco win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
PRO Vercelli win	30%	32%	−2
Draw	30%	29%	+1
Lecco win	40%	39%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	38%	50%	−12
Both teams to score	45%	55%	−10
Over 1.5 goals	65%	74%	−9
Over 3.5 goals	18%	30%	−12
PRO Vercelli or draw	60%	61%	−1
PRO Vercelli clean sheet	30%	–	–
Lecco clean sheet	37%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.7%

0123450 11.8 12.5 7.9 3.2 1 10.5 13.7 7.8 3.2 2 5.6 6.6 4.0 3 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+PRO Vercelli down, Lecco across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,042 Serie C - Girone A matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie C - Girone A matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.7% of games this season, across 90 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.75 goals a meeting; 2 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

PRO Vercelli at home: 1.17 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Lecco away: 0.83 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.01 goals for PRO Vercelli, 1.20 for Lecco. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.75

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 8

~~Both scored~~3 of 8

~~Last meetings~~LEC 0–2 PRO · PRO 0–1 LEC · LEC 2–1 PRO · PRO 3–2 LEC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie C - Girone A this season · since 13 Sept

PRO VERCELLI

LDLDWL1–2 · 2–2 · 0–4 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 0–2

LECCO

WWDLDD1–0 · 3–1 · 0–0 · 0–3 · 2–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cittadella	9	+12	24
2	Union Brescia	9	+10	19
3	Ospitaletto	9	+9	18
4	Arzignano Valchiampo	9	+4	17
5	Trento	9	+7	17
6	Treviso	9	+1	13
7	Desenzano Calvina	9	+1	13
8	Albinoleffe	9	+1	12
9	Alcione	9	−1	12
10	Lumezzane	9	−1	12
11	Pergolettese	9	−1	11
12	Lecco	9	−2	10
13	Dolomiti Bellunesi	9	−2	10
14	Novara	9	−4	9
15	PRO Vercelli	9	−5	9
16	Juventus U23	9	−7	7
17	Athletic Carpi	9	−8	6
18	Folgore Caratese	9	−4	6
19	Giana Erminio	9	−4	5
20	Renate	9	−6	4