Pergolettese v Lumezzane prediction · Serie C

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

PergoletteseDrawLumezzane

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Pergolettese 36%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Pergolettese just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Pergolettese 36%, draw 30%, Lumezzane 35%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Pergolettese v LumezzaneBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Pergolettese win36%

Draw30%

Lumezzane win35%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 16:30

RoundGirone A · matchday 11

VenueGiuseppe Voltini

RefereeF. Viapiana

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Pergolettese

Lumezzane

7Days since last match8

Last match: 18 Oct · Serie C - Girone A

Last match: 17 Oct · Serie C - Girone A

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Pergolettese	10	0	14
12	Lumezzane	10	−3	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · pergolettese winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

36% The market38%

Us36%

~~Market~~38%

We make Pergolettese a 36% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.2–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Pergolettese v Lumezzane~~1.16 – 1.13

~~Form · last six in Serie C - Girone A this season · since 17 Sept~~W2 D4 L0 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 14 v 12~~8 v 12

~~The market · Pergolettese win~~38% · ours 36%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Pergolettese win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Pergolettese win	36%	38%	−2
Draw	30%	31%	−1
Lumezzane win	35%	32%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	40%	43%	−3
Both teams to score	47%	50%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	67%	67%	0
Over 3.5 goals	20%	23%	−3
Pergolettese or draw	65%	68%	−3
Pergolettese clean sheet	33%	–	–
Lumezzane clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.7%

0123450 11.0 10.9 6.5 2.5 1 11.2 13.7 7.4 2.8 2 6.8 7.6 4.3 3 2.6 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Pergolettese down, Lumezzane across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,052 Serie C - Girone A matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie C - Girone A matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.0% of games this season, across 100 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Pergolettese at home: 1.17 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Lumezzane away: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.16 goals for Pergolettese, 1.13 for Lumezzane. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 6

~~Both scored~~1 of 6

~~Last meetings~~PER 0–2 LUM · LUM 2–3 PER · PER 1–0 LUM · LUM 0–2 PER

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie C - Girone A this season · since 17 Sept

PERGOLETTESE

DDDDWW0–0 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 3–2

LUMEZZANE

DWLWDL0–0 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 3–2 · 0–0 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cittadella	10	+13	27
2	Trento	10	+10	20
3	Union Brescia	10	+9	19
4	Ospitaletto	10	+8	18
5	Arzignano Valchiampo	10	+3	17
6	Treviso	10	+3	16
7	Alcione	10	+2	15
8	Pergolettese	10	0	14
9	Lecco	10	+3	13
10	Albinoleffe	10	+1	13
11	Desenzano Calvina	10	−2	13
12	Lumezzane	10	−3	12
13	Novara	10	−4	10
14	Dolomiti Bellunesi	10	−5	10
15	Juventus U23	10	−6	10
16	Athletic Carpi	10	−6	9
17	PRO Vercelli	10	−10	9
18	Giana Erminio	10	−3	8
19	Folgore Caratese	10	−6	6
20	Renate	10	−7	4