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Pergolettese v Athletic Carpi

Pergolettese

2–1Full time

Athletic Carpi

Serie C - Girone A · SAT 10 OCT · Giuseppe Voltini

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 16:06

Pergolettese 2–1 Athletic Carpi PERGOLETTESE WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Pergolettese win~~39%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.553

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.495

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 41 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Pergolettese win at 39%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Pergolettese 39% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 40–28–32
1′KICK-OFF Pergolettese v Athletic Carpi
12′⚽ GOAL · 12' Pergolettese 0–1 Athletic Carpi
13′⚽ GOAL · 13' Pergolettese 0–1 Athletic Carpi
13′⚽ GOAL · 13' Pergolettese 0–0 Athletic Carpi
21′A goal for Athletic Carpi on 13′ — 0–0. 0–0 · 37–32–31
22′⚽ GOAL · 22' Pergolettese 1–0 Athletic Carpi
22′⚽ GOAL · 24' Pergolettese 1–0 Athletic Carpi
29′⚽ GOAL · 29' Pergolettese 2–0 Athletic Carpi · N. Corti
33′⚽ GOAL · 30' Pergolettese 2–0 Athletic Carpi · N. Corti
41′30′ and it is 2–0: N. Corti on the scoresheet for Pergolettese. 2–0 · 93–6–1
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Pergolettese win: 39% at kick-off, 93% now
45′SECOND HALF Pergolettese 2–0 Athletic Carpi
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Athletic Carpi · On: A. Astrologo · Off: M. Forapani
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Athletic Carpi · On: A. Astrologo · Off: M. Forapani
48′We said Pergolettese at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 94%. 2–0 · 94–5–1
52′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Athletic Carpi
53′2–0 at the end. Our 39% on Pergolettese comes in. 2–0 · 100–0–0
53′Athletic Carpi ahead on 72′ through L. Lombardi. 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
53′⚽ GOAL · 24' Pergolettese 2–0 Athletic Carpi · N. Corti (assist Z. Jaouhari)
53′⚽ GOAL · 30' Pergolettese 2–0 Athletic Carpi · N. Corti
53′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Athletic Carpi · On: L. Morosini · Off: F. Casarini
53′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Athletic Carpi · On: A. Astrologo · Off: M. Forapani
53′🟨 YELLOW · 53' F. Desole · Athletic Carpi
53′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Athletic Carpi · On: A. Sall · Off: M. Montipo
53′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Athletic Carpi · On: L. Lombardi · Off: F. Desole
53′🟨 YELLOW · 70' Pergolettese
53′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Pergolettese · On: M. Rossetti · Off: N. Corti
53′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Pergolettese · On: C. Evangelista · Off: A. Pala
53′⚽ GOAL · 72' Pergolettese 2–0 Athletic Carpi · L. Lombardi
53′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Pergolettese · On: E. Bassi · Off: D. Ferrandino
53′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Pergolettese · On: A. Orlandi · Off: A. Berretta
53′🟨 YELLOW · 83' L. Lombardi · Athletic Carpi
53′🟥 RED CARD · 85' Athletic Carpi
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' Pergolettese win: 39% at kick-off, 100% now
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Pergolettese win: 39% at kick-off, 100% now
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' Pergolettese win: 39% at kick-off, 100% now
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Pergolettese win: 39% at kick-off, 100% now
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' Pergolettese win: 39% at kick-off, 100% now
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' Pergolettese win: 39% at kick-off, 100% now
80′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Athletic Carpi · On: T. Carcani · Off: V. Vitale
80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Pergolettese 2–1 Athletic Carpi · L. Lombardi
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Pergolettese win: 39% at kick-off, 100% now
90′⚽ GOAL · 97' Pergolettese 2–2 Athletic Carpi
90′🟥 RED CARD · 90' Athletic Carpi
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Pergolettese win: 39% at kick-off, 100% now
FTFULL TIME Pergolettese 2–0 Athletic Carpi
FTPergolettese 2–1 Athletic Carpi · Pergolettese win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Pergolettese win39%

Draw29%

Athletic Carpi win32%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:30

Venue · Giuseppe Voltini

Referee · G. Rossini

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Pergolettese

Formation not confirmed

22 F. Doldi

76 L. Roversi

4 M. Arini

5 T. Silvestri

49 E. Zaia

20 M. Tremolada

30 A. Berretta

10 D. Ferrandino

80 Z. Jaouhari

7 A. Pala

11 N. Corti

Coach · Antonio Giosa

Substitutes

1 · L. Cordaro

73 · E. Bassi

15 · C. Dell'Orco

24 · D. Pavesi

77 · A. Orlandi

70 · J. Antolini

18 · P. Avena

32 · C. La Masa

27 · A. Pavanello

21 · C. Evangelista

9 · M. Rossetti

90 · M. J. Giroletti

28 · R. Berti

Athletic Carpi

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Scacchetti

19 M. Rossini

4 D. Zagnoni

24 F. Desole

7 T. Cecotti

5 M. Figoli

21 M. Forapani

10 F. Casarini

90 V. Vitale

11 F. Puletto

9 M. Montipo

Coach · Stefano Cassani

Substitutes

22 · T. Gasperini

12 · A. A. Perta

17 · L. Lombardi

25 · G. Vaglica

16 · L. Nesi

2 · S. Maggio

23 · L. Morosini

6 · A. Astrologo

8 · N. Bagatti

83 · A. Sall

18 · T. Carcani

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Pergolettese

Formation not confirmed

22 F. Doldi

76 L. Roversi

4 M. Arini

5 T. Silvestri

49 E. Zaia

20 M. Tremolada

30 A. Berretta

10 D. Ferrandino

80 Z. Jaouhari

7 A. Pala

11 N. Corti

Coach · Antonio Giosa

Substitutes

1 · L. Cordaro

73 · E. Bassi

15 · C. Dell'Orco

24 · D. Pavesi

77 · A. Orlandi

70 · J. Antolini

18 · P. Avena

32 · C. La Masa

27 · A. Pavanello

21 · C. Evangelista

9 · M. Rossetti

90 · M. J. Giroletti

28 · R. Berti

Athletic Carpi

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Scacchetti

19 M. Rossini

4 D. Zagnoni

24 F. Desole

7 T. Cecotti

5 M. Figoli

21 M. Forapani

10 F. Casarini

90 V. Vitale

11 F. Puletto

9 M. Montipo

Coach · Stefano Cassani

Substitutes

22 · T. Gasperini

12 · A. A. Perta

17 · L. Lombardi

25 · G. Vaglica

16 · L. Nesi

2 · S. Maggio

23 · L. Morosini

6 · A. Astrologo

8 · N. Bagatti

83 · A. Sall

18 · T. Carcani

Our number · pergolettese winPublished 10 Oct 13:47

39% The market43%

Us39%

~~Market~~43%

We make Pergolettese a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · pergolettese win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Pergolettese win	39%	43%	−3
Draw	29%	30%	−1
Athletic Carpi win	32%	27%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	43%	42%	+1
Both teams to score	49%	49%	0
Over 1.5 goals	70%	67%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	22%	23%	0
Pergolettese or draw	68%	73%	−5
Pergolettese clean sheet	33%	–	–
Athletic Carpi clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.4%

0123450 9.9 9.6 5.8 2.2 1 11.0 13.4 7.2 2.7 2 7.4 8.1 4.6 3 3.2 3.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Pergolettese down, Athletic Carpi across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,032 Serie C - Girone A matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie C - Girone A matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.5% of games this season, across 80 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Pergolettese at home: 1.17 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Athletic Carpi away: 1.00 scored, 1.75 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

1.28 goals for Pergolettese, 1.12 for Athletic Carpi. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Serie C - Girone A

PERGOLETTESE

DWDDDD0–0 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 2–2

ATHLETIC CARPI

WLDDLL1–0 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 2–2 · 0–3 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cittadella	8	+10	21
2	Union Brescia	9	+10	19
3	Ospitaletto	8	+8	15
4	Trento	8	+6	14
5	Arzignano Valchiampo	8	+3	14
6	Treviso	8	+2	13
7	Albinoleffe	8	+2	12
8	Alcione	8	−1	11
9	Dolomiti Bellunesi	8	0	10
10	Desenzano Calvina	8	−1	10
11	Novara	8	−2	9
12	Lecco	8	−2	9
13	PRO Vercelli	9	−5	9
14	Lumezzane	7	−2	8
15	Pergolettese	8	−2	8
16	Folgore Caratese	8	−3	6
17	Juventus U23	7	−6	6
18	Athletic Carpi	8	−7	6
19	Giana Erminio	8	−4	4
20	Renate	8	−6	3