Ospitaletto v Trento prediction · Serie C

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

OspitalettoDrawTrento

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Trento 36%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Trento just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Ospitaletto 35%, draw 29%, Trento 36%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Ospitaletto v TrentoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Ospitaletto win35%

Draw29%

Trento win36%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 13:30

RoundGirone A · matchday 12

VenueStadio Comunale Gino Corioni

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ospitaletto

Trento

13Days since last match12

Last match: 18 Oct · Serie C - Girone A

Last match: 19 Oct · Serie C - Girone A

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Trento	10	+10	20
5	Ospitaletto	10	+8	18

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · trento winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

36% The market–

Us36%

We make Trento a 36% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ospitaletto v Trento~~1.16 – 1.19

~~Form · last six in Serie C - Girone A this season · since 17 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W3 D3 L0

~~Table places · points 18 v 20~~5 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ospitaletto win	35%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Trento win	36%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	41%	–	–
Both teams to score	48%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	68%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	21%	–	–
Ospitaletto or draw	64%	–	–
Ospitaletto clean sheet	31%	–	–
Trento clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.6%

0123450 10.4 10.8 6.7 2.7 1 10.6 13.6 7.7 3.1 2 6.4 7.5 4.4 3 2.5 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ospitaletto down, Trento across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,055 Serie C - Girone A matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie C - Girone A matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.5% of games this season, across 103 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ospitaletto at home: 1.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Trento away: 1.17 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.16 goals for Ospitaletto, 1.19 for Trento. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 3

~~Both scored~~3 of 3

~~Last meetings~~TRE 2–1 OSP · OSP 3–2 TRE · TRE 3–1 OSP

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie C - Girone A this season · since 17 Sept

OSPITALETTO

DLWDWL2–2 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 2–3

TRENTO

DWDDWW2–2 · 4–0 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cittadella	11	+12	27
2	Union Brescia	11	+10	22
3	Trento	10	+10	20
4	Treviso	11	+4	19
5	Ospitaletto	10	+8	18
6	Arzignano Valchiampo	10	+3	17
7	Alcione	11	+1	15
8	Pergolettese	10	0	14
9	Lecco	10	+3	13
10	Albinoleffe	10	+1	13
11	Desenzano Calvina	10	−2	13
12	Lumezzane	10	−3	12
13	Athletic Carpi	11	−5	12
14	Novara	10	−4	10
15	Juventus U23	10	−6	10
16	Dolomiti Bellunesi	11	−6	10
17	PRO Vercelli	10	−10	9
18	Giana Erminio	10	−3	8
19	Folgore Caratese	10	−6	6
20	Renate	10	−7	4