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Novara v Cittadella

Novara

0–2Full time

Cittadella

Serie C - Girone A · SAT 10 OCT · Stadio Silvio Piola

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 19:03

Novara 0–2 Cittadella CITTADELLA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Cittadella win~~36%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.611

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.555

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Cittadella win at 36%.
1′KICK-OFF Novara v Cittadella
2′Much as we predicted: Cittadella was 36% before kick-off and our model makes it 37% now. 0–0 · 34–29–37
8′Much as we predicted: Cittadella was 36% before kick-off and our model makes it 36% now. 0–0 · 34–30–36
16′🟥 RED CARD · 16' Novara
17′🟥 RED CARD · 17' Novara
20′SUBSTITUTION · 19' Novara · On: C. da Graca · Off: M. Romano
30′A red card for Novara on 17′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–0 · 31–37–33
37′A red card for Novara on 17′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–0 · 29–40–31
37′THE CALL SWINGS · 37' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Cittadella win 31%)
42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Novara 0–1 Cittadella
43′⚽ GOAL · 43' Novara 0–1 Cittadella
45′SECOND HALF Novara 0–1 Cittadella
45′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Cittadella · On: A. Zilio · Off: B. Martella
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Cittadella win 31%)
60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Cittadella · On: J. Ekuban · Off: D. Mensah
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Novara · On: R. Arboscello · Off: G. Basso
63′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Novara · On: E. Zambataro · Off: A. Valdesi
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Cittadella · On: M. Fabbro · Off: M. Antonucci
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Novara · On: D. Dell'Erba · Off: A. Cannavaro
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Novara · On: E. Lanini · Off: N. Ledonne
75′🟨 YELLOW · 75' E. Zambataro · Novara
79′🟨 YELLOW · 75' E. Zambataro · Novara
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Novara 0–2 Cittadella · A. Barberis
86′⚽ GOAL · 87' Novara 0–2 Cittadella
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Novara 0–2 Cittadella
FTFULL TIME Novara 0–2 Cittadella
FTNovara 0–2 Cittadella · Cittadella win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Novara win34%

Draw30%

Cittadella win36%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 16:30

Venue · Stadio Silvio Piola

Referee · C. Aldi

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Novara

Formation not confirmed

33 F. Brancolini

28 A. Cannavaro

58 M. Miceli

15 O. Khailoti

3 S. Lartey

19 R. Collodel

99 G. Basso

70 A. Valdesi

14 M. Romano

11 N. Ledonne

9 D. Zuppel

Coach · Manuel Iori

Substitutes

1 · E. Boseggia

22 · P. Anfossi

5 · F. Lorenzini

71 · L. D'Alessio

8 · D. Dell'Erba

36 · R. Arboscello

23 · E. Zambataro

21 · A. Cortese

7 · E. Lanini

20 · C. da Graca

Cittadella

Formation not confirmed

69 A. Zanellati

24 M. Gobbato

4 F. Toffanin

87 B. Martella

19 F. D'Alessio

33 G. Frisenna

5 A. Barberis

23 L. Paolucci

43 A. Ndrecka

10 M. Antonucci

9 D. Mensah

Coach · –

Substitutes

2 · L. Maniero

22 · C. Sommacal

14 · C. Crialese

55 · A. Redolfi

36 · A. Zilio

18 · E. Ignatov

8 · F. Amatucci

20 · M. Sangalli

7 · E. Anastasia

16 · J. Ekuban

99 · M. Fabbro

71 · A. Ceccarelli

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Novara

Formation not confirmed

33 F. Brancolini

28 A. Cannavaro

58 M. Miceli

15 O. Khailoti

3 S. Lartey

19 R. Collodel

99 G. Basso

70 A. Valdesi

14 M. Romano

11 N. Ledonne

9 D. Zuppel

Coach · Manuel Iori

Substitutes

1 · E. Boseggia

22 · P. Anfossi

5 · F. Lorenzini

71 · L. D'Alessio

8 · D. Dell'Erba

36 · R. Arboscello

23 · E. Zambataro

21 · A. Cortese

7 · E. Lanini

20 · C. da Graca

Cittadella

Formation not confirmed

69 A. Zanellati

24 M. Gobbato

4 F. Toffanin

87 B. Martella

19 F. D'Alessio

33 G. Frisenna

5 A. Barberis

23 L. Paolucci

43 A. Ndrecka

10 M. Antonucci

9 D. Mensah

Coach · –

Substitutes

2 · L. Maniero

22 · C. Sommacal

14 · C. Crialese

55 · A. Redolfi

36 · A. Zilio

18 · E. Ignatov

8 · F. Amatucci

20 · M. Sangalli

7 · E. Anastasia

16 · J. Ekuban

99 · M. Fabbro

71 · A. Ceccarelli

Our number · cittadella winPublished 10 Oct 16:37

36% The market39%

Us36%

~~Market~~39%

We make Cittadella a 36% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · cittadella win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Novara win	34%	31%	+3
Draw	30%	30%	0
Cittadella win	36%	39%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	39%	47%	−8
Both teams to score	46%	53%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	66%	71%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	19%	27%	−8
Novara or draw	64%	61%	+3
Novara clean sheet	32%	–	–
Cittadella clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.8%

0123450 11.5 11.6 7.0 2.7 1 11.1 13.8 7.5 2.9 2 6.4 7.2 4.1 3 2.4 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Novara down, Cittadella across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,032 Serie C - Girone A matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie C - Girone A matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.5% of games this season, across 80 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Novara at home: 0.83 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Cittadella away: 1.00 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.09 goals for Novara, 1.14 for Cittadella. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~NOV 0–1 CIT · CIT 2–2 NOV

Form · last six in Serie C - Girone A

NOVARA

WLDDLW2–1 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 2–1

CITTADELLA

WWWWWL2–1 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 3–0 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cittadella	8	+10	21
2	Union Brescia	9	+10	19
3	Ospitaletto	8	+8	15
4	Trento	8	+6	14
5	Arzignano Valchiampo	8	+3	14
6	Treviso	8	+2	13
7	Albinoleffe	8	+2	12
8	Alcione	8	−1	11
9	Dolomiti Bellunesi	8	0	10
10	Desenzano Calvina	8	−1	10
11	Novara	8	−2	9
12	Lecco	8	−2	9
13	PRO Vercelli	9	−5	9
14	Lumezzane	7	−2	8
15	Pergolettese	8	−2	8
16	Folgore Caratese	8	−3	6
17	Juventus U23	7	−6	6
18	Athletic Carpi	8	−7	6
19	Giana Erminio	8	−4	4
20	Renate	8	−6	3