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Lumezzane v Albinoleffe

Lumezzane

3–2Full time

Albinoleffe

Serie C - Girone A · SAT 10 OCT · Tullio Saleri

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 19:03

Lumezzane 3–2 Albinoleffe LUMEZZANE WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Lumezzane win~~38%

~~The market said~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.572

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.536

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 33 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Lumezzane win at 38%.
1′KICK-OFF Lumezzane v Albinoleffe
3′Little has changed for our model: Lumezzane 38% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 39–28–34
9′Little has changed for our model: Lumezzane 38% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 38–29–33
9′⚽ GOAL · 9' Lumezzane 1–0 Albinoleffe
10′⚽ GOAL · 10' Lumezzane 1–0 Albinoleffe
27′⚽ GOAL · 27' Lumezzane 1–1 Albinoleffe · T. Ebone
28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Lumezzane 1–1 Albinoleffe · T. Ebone
29′⚽ GOAL · 29' Lumezzane 1–1 Albinoleffe
30′Albinoleffe ahead on 29′ through J. Desogus. 1–1. 1–1 · 35–34–31
30′🟨 YELLOW · 31' Lumezzane
37′Albinoleffe ahead on 29′ through J. Desogus. 1–1. 1–1 · 33–37–30
39′⚽ GOAL · 39' Lumezzane 2–1 Albinoleffe · J. Desogus
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Lumezzane 2–1 Albinoleffe
45′SECOND HALF Lumezzane 2–1 Albinoleffe
45′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Albinoleffe · On: A. Orfei · Off: B. Barba
46′HALF-TIME Lumezzane 2–1 Albinoleffe
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Lumezzane 2–2 Albinoleffe · G. Anatriello
52′⚽ GOAL · 53' Lumezzane 2–2 Albinoleffe
55′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Lumezzane
57′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Albinoleffe
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Lumezzane 3–2 Albinoleffe · J. Desogus
59′⚽ GOAL · 60' Lumezzane 3–2 Albinoleffe
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Albinoleffe · On: F. Faggi · Off: S. Sassi
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Albinoleffe · On: A. Lombardi · Off: S. Ciko
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Lumezzane 3–3 Albinoleffe · M. Rolando
62′⚽ GOAL · 63' Lumezzane 3–3 Albinoleffe
69′🟨 YELLOW · 70' Lumezzane
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Lumezzane · On: L. Menegazzo · Off: F. Paghera
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Lumezzane · On: M. Ndiaye · Off: S. Diodato
80′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Lumezzane
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Albinoleffe · On: L. Stanzani · Off: L. Ballo
87′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Lumezzane · On: A. Pavanati · Off: G. Anatriello
87′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Albinoleffe · On: T. Simonelli · Off: A. Mandelli
95′⚽ GOAL · 95' Lumezzane 3–3 Albinoleffe · M. Rolando
95′⚽ GOAL · 96' Lumezzane 3–3 Albinoleffe
98′🟨 YELLOW · 99' Albinoleffe
FTFULL TIME Lumezzane 3–2 Albinoleffe
FTLumezzane 3–2 Albinoleffe · Lumezzane win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Lumezzane win38%

Draw28%

Albinoleffe win34%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 16:30

Venue · Tullio Saleri

Referee · F. Tassano

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Lumezzane

Formation not confirmed

13 L. Andrenacci

21 J. Deratti

90 S. J. Nwachukwu

30 A. Boffelli

77 S. Diodato

19 M. Rolando

4 F. Paghera

8 M. Rocca

17 S. Mancini

32 G. Anatriello

9 T. Ebone

Coach · Paolo Sammarco

Substitutes

1 · S. Filigheddu

15 · M. Ndiaye

42 · D. Baroncioni

6 · N. Gauli

5 · S. D'Agostino

27 · A. Pavanati

16 · C. Ghidini

72 · G. Perina

50 · G. D'Angelo

44 · L. Menegazzo

11 · A. Ghillani

10 · G. Monachello

12 · M. Busi

Albinoleffe

Formation not confirmed

12 G. Baldi

16 M. Gusu

4 S. Potop

23 E. Sottini

2 B. Barba

14 S. Sassi

5 A. Mandelli

17 S. Ciko

77 L. Ballo

11 G. Sali

70 J. Desogus

Coach · Marco Zaffaroni

Substitutes

1 · F. Generali

22 · M. Michielin

3 · G. Sciacca

7 · A. Garattoni

6 · G. Boloca

32 · F. Faggi

21 · F. Franchini

8 · A. Lombardi

19 · M. Agostinelli

71 · A. Colombi

24 · T. Simonelli

9 · L. Stanzani

18 · A. Orfei

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Lumezzane

Formation not confirmed

13 L. Andrenacci

21 J. Deratti

90 S. J. Nwachukwu

30 A. Boffelli

77 S. Diodato

19 M. Rolando

4 F. Paghera

8 M. Rocca

17 S. Mancini

32 G. Anatriello

9 T. Ebone

Coach · Paolo Sammarco

Substitutes

1 · S. Filigheddu

15 · M. Ndiaye

42 · D. Baroncioni

6 · N. Gauli

5 · S. D'Agostino

27 · A. Pavanati

16 · C. Ghidini

72 · G. Perina

50 · G. D'Angelo

44 · L. Menegazzo

11 · A. Ghillani

10 · G. Monachello

12 · M. Busi

Albinoleffe

Formation not confirmed

12 G. Baldi

16 M. Gusu

4 S. Potop

23 E. Sottini

2 B. Barba

14 S. Sassi

5 A. Mandelli

17 S. Ciko

77 L. Ballo

11 G. Sali

70 J. Desogus

Coach · Marco Zaffaroni

Substitutes

1 · F. Generali

22 · M. Michielin

3 · G. Sciacca

7 · A. Garattoni

6 · G. Boloca

32 · F. Faggi

21 · F. Franchini

8 · A. Lombardi

19 · M. Agostinelli

71 · A. Colombi

24 · T. Simonelli

9 · L. Stanzani

18 · A. Orfei

Our number · lumezzane winPublished 10 Oct 16:37

38% The market40%

Us38%

~~Market~~40%

We make Lumezzane a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · lumezzane win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Lumezzane win	38%	40%	−2
Draw	28%	30%	−1
Albinoleffe win	34%	30%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	45%	44%	+2
Both teams to score	51%	50%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	72%	68%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	24%	24%	0
Lumezzane or draw	66%	70%	−3
Lumezzane clean sheet	31%	–	–
Albinoleffe clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.3%

0123450 9.0 9.3 5.9 2.4 1 10.1 13.3 7.5 3.0 2 6.9 8.2 4.9 3 3.0 3.6 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Lumezzane down, Albinoleffe across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,032 Serie C - Girone A matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie C - Girone A matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.5% of games this season, across 80 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 2.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Lumezzane at home: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Albinoleffe away: 1.67 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.30 goals for Lumezzane, 1.20 for Albinoleffe. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~LUM 1–1 ALB · ALB 0–1 LUM · ALB 2–0 LUM · LUM 1–0 ALB

Form · last six in Serie C - Girone A

LUMEZZANE

WLDDWL1–0 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 1–2

ALBINOLEFFE

LDLWDW0–1 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 5–3 · 1–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cittadella	8	+10	21
2	Union Brescia	9	+10	19
3	Ospitaletto	8	+8	15
4	Trento	8	+6	14
5	Arzignano Valchiampo	8	+3	14
6	Treviso	8	+2	13
7	Albinoleffe	8	+2	12
8	Alcione	8	−1	11
9	Dolomiti Bellunesi	8	0	10
10	Desenzano Calvina	8	−1	10
11	Novara	8	−2	9
12	Lecco	8	−2	9
13	PRO Vercelli	9	−5	9
14	Lumezzane	7	−2	8
15	Pergolettese	8	−2	8
16	Folgore Caratese	8	−3	6
17	Juventus U23	7	−6	6
18	Athletic Carpi	8	−7	6
19	Giana Erminio	8	−4	4
20	Renate	8	−6	3