Lecco v Folgore Caratese prediction · Serie C

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

LeccoDrawFolgore Caratese

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Lecco 47%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Lecco are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Lecco 47%, draw 29%, Folgore Caratese 24%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Lecco v Folgore CarateseBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Lecco win47%

Draw29%

Folgore Caratese win24%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 16:30

RoundGirone A · matchday 11

VenueStadio Rigamonti Ceppi

RefereeA. Silvestri

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Lecco

Folgore Caratese

9Days since last match8

Last match: 16 Oct · Serie C - Girone A

Last match: 17 Oct · Serie C - Girone A

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Lecco	10	+3	13
19	Folgore Caratese	10	−6	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · lecco winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

47% The market46%

Us47%

~~Market~~46%

We make Lecco a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.4–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Lecco v Folgore Caratese~~1.38 – 0.92

~~Form · last six in Serie C - Girone A this season · since 17 Sept~~W2 D3 L1 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 13 v 6~~9 v 19

~~The market · Lecco win~~46% · ours 47%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Lecco win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Lecco win	47%	46%	+1
Draw	29%	29%	0
Folgore Caratese win	24%	25%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	40%	43%	−3
Both teams to score	45%	48%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	67%	67%	0
Over 3.5 goals	20%	24%	−4
Lecco or draw	76%	75%	+1
Lecco clean sheet	40%	–	–
Folgore Caratese clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.3%

0123450 10.9 8.7 4.3 1 13.3 13.1 5.7 2 9.5 8.6 3.9 3 4.4 4.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Lecco down, Folgore Caratese across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,055 Serie C - Girone A matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie C - Girone A matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.5% of games this season, across 103 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Lecco at home: 1.00 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Folgore Caratese away: 0.80 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

1.38 goals for Lecco, 0.92 for Folgore Caratese. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie C - Girone A this season · since 17 Sept

LECCO

WDLDDW3–1 · 0–0 · 0–3 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 5–0

FOLGORE CARATESE

DDWLLL0–0 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cittadella	10	+13	27
2	Trento	10	+10	20
3	Union Brescia	10	+9	19
4	Ospitaletto	10	+8	18
5	Arzignano Valchiampo	10	+3	17
6	Treviso	10	+3	16
7	Alcione	10	+2	15
8	Pergolettese	10	0	14
9	Lecco	10	+3	13
10	Albinoleffe	10	+1	13
11	Desenzano Calvina	10	−2	13
12	Lumezzane	10	−3	12
13	Novara	10	−4	10
14	Dolomiti Bellunesi	10	−5	10
15	Juventus U23	10	−6	10
16	Athletic Carpi	10	−6	9
17	PRO Vercelli	10	−10	9
18	Giana Erminio	10	−3	8
19	Folgore Caratese	10	−6	6
20	Renate	10	−7	4