Lecco v Alcione prediction · Serie C - Girone A

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Lecco 1–1 Alcione LECCO WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Lecco win~~38%

~~The market said~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.689

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.800

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 34 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Lecco win at 38%.
1′Much as we predicted: Lecco was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 39–31–30
1′KICK-OFF Lecco v Alcione
7′🟨 YELLOW · 7' Lecco
18′⚽ GOAL · 18' Lecco 1–0 Alcione
18′⚽ GOAL · 19' Lecco 1–0 Alcione
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Lecco 0–1 Alcione
41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Lecco 0–1 Alcione
43′A goal for Alcione on 41′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 7–23–70
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Lecco win: 38% at kick-off, 7% now
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Alcione win is now our likeliest result at 70% (was Lecco win 7%)
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Lecco win: 38% at kick-off, 35% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Lecco win: 38% at kick-off, 35% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Lecco win: 38% at kick-off, 7% now
45′G. Galli scores for Alcione on 41′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 7–22–71
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Lecco win: 38% at kick-off, 7% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Lecco win: 38% at kick-off, 35% now
45′SECOND HALF Lecco 0–1 Alcione
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Lecco win: 38% at kick-off, 7% now
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Alcione win is now our likeliest result at 71% (was Lecco win 7%)
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Lecco win: 38% at kick-off, 7% now
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Alcione win is now our likeliest result at 71% (was Lecco win 7%)
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Lecco 1–1 Alcione · G. Galli
53′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Alcione
53′⚽ GOAL · 54' Lecco 1–1 Alcione
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Lecco · On: N. Fasan · Off: A. Murillo
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Lecco · On: M. Casarotto · Off: G. Pellegrino
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Lecco · On: M. Litti · Off: G. Manetti
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Alcione · On: J. Lanzi · Off: G. Galli
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Alcione · On: M. Marconi · Off: L. Zini
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Lecco · On: S. Sidler · Off: T. Bordoni
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Alcione · On: T. Mocchi · Off: E. Lopes
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Lecco · On: S. Bonaiti · Off: O. Urso
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Alcione · On: A. Braida · Off: E. Sadotti
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Alcione · On: F. Bertolotti · Off: R. Rebaudo
89′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Lecco
94′🟨 YELLOW · 95' Lecco
FTFULL TIME Lecco 1–1 Alcione
FTLecco 1–1 Alcione · Lecco win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Lecco win38%

Draw32%

Alcione win29%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 16:30

VenueStadio Rigamonti Ceppi

RefereeM. Buzzone

Line-ups

Lecco

Alcione

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Lecco

Alcione

7Days since last match7

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Alcione	8	−1	11
13	Lecco	8	−2	9

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Lecco

Formation not confirmed

1 J. Dalmasso

45 M. Rizzo

4 P. Comi

13 T. Bordoni

11 O. Urso

21 A. Metlika

6 A. Mallamo

99 G. Manetti

17 G. Pellegrino

10 A. Capello

15 A. Murillo

Coach · Federico Valente

Substitutes

12 · T. Zouaghi

24 · S. Sidler

27 · D. Triacca

19 · M. Litti

72 · M. Polonioli

8 · S. Bonaiti

78 · J. Anastasini

75 · E. Nova

20 · L. Mihali

83 · S. Fama

30 · N. Fasan

9 · M. Casarotto

Alcione

Formation not confirmed

1 F. Raffaelli

5 E. Sadotti

25 F. Pirola

4 A. Miculi

3 P. Chierichetti

18 E. Lopes

23 G. Galli

30 R. Rebaudo

10 J. Pitou

11 F. Morselli

98 L. Zini

Coach · Giovanni Cusatis

Substitutes

22 · J. Morazzoni

6 · D. Ciappellano

94 · F. Bertolotti

2 · S. Baldacchino

8 · M. Muroni

21 · S. Parlati

16 · J. Lanzi

27 · M. Lione

67 · T. Mocchi

81 · F. Gallazzi

56 · D. Andreassi

17 · A. Braida

31 · M. Marconi

14 · A. Rolfini

20 · G. Puzzoli

Our number · lecco winPublished 11 Oct 16:29

38% The market47%

Us38%

~~Market~~47%

We make Lecco a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · lecco win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 51% to 47% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Lecco win	38%	47%	−8
Draw	32%	28%	+4
Alcione win	29%	25%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	31%	47%	−16
Both teams to score	39%	51%	−13
Over 1.5 goals	58%	71%	−12
Over 3.5 goals	13%	27%	−13
Lecco or draw	71%	75%	−4
Lecco clean sheet	41%	–	–
Alcione clean sheet	35%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 15.1%

0123450 15.1 12.0 5.6 1 14.5 13.9 5.9 2 8.0 7.0 3.1 3 2.9 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Lecco down, Alcione across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,037 Serie C - Girone A matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie C - Girone A matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.2% of games this season, across 85 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Lecco at home: 1.17 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Alcione away: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.06 goals for Lecco, 0.89 for Alcione. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 4

~~Both scored~~0 of 4

~~Last meetings~~ALC 0–2 LEC · LEC 1–0 ALC · ALC 0–0 LEC · LEC 1–0 ALC

Form · last six in Serie C - Girone A

LECCO

LWWDLD0–1 · 1–0 · 3–1 · 0–0 · 0–3 · 2–2

ALCIONE

DWDLDD1–1 · 3–2 · 2–2 · 0–4 · 1–1 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cittadella	9	+12	24
2	Union Brescia	9	+10	19
3	Arzignano Valchiampo	9	+4	17
4	Ospitaletto	8	+8	15
5	Trento	8	+6	14
6	Treviso	8	+2	13
7	Desenzano Calvina	9	+1	13
8	Albinoleffe	9	+1	12
9	Alcione	8	−1	11
10	Lumezzane	8	−1	11
11	Pergolettese	9	−1	11
12	Dolomiti Bellunesi	9	−2	10
13	Lecco	8	−2	9
14	Novara	9	−4	9
15	PRO Vercelli	9	−5	9
16	Folgore Caratese	8	−3	6
17	Juventus U23	8	−7	6
18	Athletic Carpi	9	−8	6
19	Giana Erminio	8	−4	4
20	Renate	8	−6	3