Juventus U23 v Renate prediction · Serie C

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 22:30

Juventus U23 2–1 Renate RENATE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Renate win~~38%

~~The market said~~31%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.680

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.525

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 41 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Renate win at 38%.
1′KICK-OFF Juventus U23 v Renate
2′Much as we predicted: Renate was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 33–29–38
23′Juventus U23 find the net on 23′. 1–0. 1–0 · 65–22–13
23′⚽ GOAL · 23' Juventus U23 1–0 Renate
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Renate win: 38% at kick-off, 13% now
23′THE CALL SWINGS · 23' Juventus U23 win is now our likeliest result at 65% (was Renate win 35%)
24′We said Renate at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 1–0 · 65–22–13
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 1–0 · 66–22–11
40′We said Renate at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 68–22–9
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Renate win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
45′A goal for Renate on 44′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 27–43–30
45′⚽ GOAL · 44' Juventus U23 1–1 Renate
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Renate win: 38% at kick-off, 30% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Juventus U23 win 69%)
45′HALF-TIME Juventus U23 1–1 Renate
46′SECOND HALF Juventus U23 1–1 Renate
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Renate · On: M. Suarez · Off: F. Vassallo
50′Renate score on 50′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 6–20–74
50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Juventus U23 1–2 Renate
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Renate win: 38% at kick-off, 74% now
50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Renate win is now our likeliest result at 74% (was Draw 46%)
51′We published Renate at 38%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–2 · 6–20–75
52′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 5–20–75
53′GOAL DISALLOWED · 53' Renate
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Renate win: 38% at kick-off, 28% now
53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Draw is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Renate win 75%)
56′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Renate
62′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Juventus U23
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Juventus U23 · On: A. Owusu · Off: D. Ripani
69′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Juventus U23 · On: S. Turco · Off: N. Rizzo
69′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Renate · On: P. Ruiz Giraldo · Off: S. Careccia
70′We said Renate at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 17–63–19
71′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Juventus U23
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Renate win: 38% at kick-off, 18% now
73′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Renate
76′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Renate
78′Juventus U23 score on 78′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 87–12–1
78′We said Renate at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 1%. 2–1 · 87–12–1
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Juventus U23 2–1 Renate
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Renate win: 38% at kick-off, 1% now
78′THE CALL SWINGS · 78' Juventus U23 win is now our likeliest result at 87% (was Draw 75%)
80′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Juventus U23
81′A red card for Renate on 81′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 2–1 · 90–10–1
81′🟥 RED CARD · 81' Renate
82′🟨 YELLOW · 80' M. Suarez · Renate
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Renate · On: R. De Zen · Off: L. Kerrigan
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Renate · On: S. Dore · Off: G. Minotti
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Juventus U23 · On: S. Guerra · Off: A. Durmisi
89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Renate · On: A. Bonetti · Off: M. Cali
93′🟥 RED CARD · 90+3' Renate
94′Renate are down to nine from 90′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 2–1 · 99–1–0
95′Juventus U23 find the net on 90′. 3–1. 3–1 · 100–0–0
95′4 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 100–0–0
95′⚽ GOAL · 90+5' Juventus U23 3–1 Renate
95′SUBSTITUTION · 90+3' Juventus U23 · On: F. Leone · Off: A. Merola Corrected
98′GOAL DISALLOWED · 90+8' Juventus U23
FTFULL TIME Juventus U23 2–1 Renate
FTJuventus U23 2–1 Renate · Renate win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Renate are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Juventus U23 33%, draw 29%, Renate 38%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Juventus U23 v RenateBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

Juventus U23 win33%

Draw29%

Renate win38%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 19:30

RoundGirone A · matchday 10

VenueStadio Giuseppe Moccagatta

RefereeA. Giordani

Line-ups

Juventus U23

Renate

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Juventus U23

Renate

6Days since last match8

Last match: 13 Oct · Serie C - Girone A

Last match: 11 Oct · Serie C - Girone A

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
17	Juventus U23	9	−7	7
20	Renate	9	−6	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Juventus U23

Formation not confirmed

22 S. Mangiapoco

2 N. Rizzo

38 C. Corradi

18 M. Brugarello

15 F. Savio

5 F. Macca

26 D. Ripani

16 F. Pagnucco

21 A. Merola

14 D. Elimoghale

9 A. Durmisi

Coach · Massimo Brambilla

Substitutes

1 · M. Fuscaldo

30 · S. Cat Berro

44 · A. Montero

4 · S. van Aarle

34 · S. Turco

24 · P. Mazur

48 · J. Grelaud

8 · A. Owusu

7 · J. Oboavwoduo

11 · L. Amaradio

17 · S. Guerra

27 · F. Leone

Renate

Formation not confirmed

30 M. Avella

73 G. Minotti

5 S. Auriletto

21 C. Riviera

11 A. Delcarro

10 S. Careccia

25 F. Vassallo

47 L. Kerrigan

92 N. Anelli

14 M. Cali

7 J. Italeng

Coach · Simone Banchieri

Substitutes

12 · A. Bartoccioni

29 · T. Botrini

33 · M. Tempre

13 · A. Motoc

15 · M. Suarez

23 · L. Gobbo

2 · R. De Zen

4 · F. Vigano

17 · A. Bonetti

72 · G. Mastromonaco

8 · S. Dore

71 · P. Ruiz Giraldo

20 · S. Zalazar

Our number · renate winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

38% The market31%

Us38%

~~Market~~31%

We make Renate a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 31%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Juventus U23 v Renate~~1.13 – 1.24

~~Form · last six in Serie C - Girone A this season · since 13 Sept~~W0 D2 L4 · W0 D4 L2

~~Table places · points 7 v 4~~17 v 20

~~The market · Renate win~~31% · ours 38%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Renate win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 31% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Juventus U23 win	33%	41%	−8
Draw	29%	28%	+1
Renate win	38%	31%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	42%	51%	−9
Both teams to score	48%	56%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	69%	74%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	21%	31%	−10
Juventus U23 or draw	62%	69%	−7
Juventus U23 clean sheet	30%	–	–
Renate clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.5%

0123450 10.3 11.1 7.2 3.0 1 10.0 13.5 7.9 3.3 2 6.0 7.2 4.4 3 2.3 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Juventus U23 down, Renate across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,048 Serie C - Girone A matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie C - Girone A matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.0% of games this season, across 96 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.43 goals a meeting; 2 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Juventus U23 at home: 0.83 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Renate away: 1.33 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.13 goals for Juventus U23, 1.24 for Renate. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.43

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 7

~~Both scored~~5 of 7

~~Last meetings~~REN 1–1 JUV · JUV 1–1 REN · REN 3–2 JUV · REN 0–1 JUV

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie C - Girone A this season · since 13 Sept

JUVENTUS U23

LLLDLD0–3 · 0–2 · 3–5 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 0–0

RENATE

DDLLDD2–2 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cittadella	9	+12	24
2	Union Brescia	9	+10	19
3	Ospitaletto	10	+8	18
4	Arzignano Valchiampo	9	+4	17
5	Trento	9	+7	17
6	Treviso	10	+3	16
7	Alcione	10	+2	15
8	Pergolettese	10	0	14
9	Albinoleffe	10	+1	13
10	Lecco	10	+3	13
11	Desenzano Calvina	10	−2	13
12	Lumezzane	10	−3	12
13	Novara	10	−4	10
14	Dolomiti Bellunesi	9	−2	10
15	Athletic Carpi	10	−6	9
16	PRO Vercelli	10	−10	9
17	Juventus U23	9	−7	7
18	Folgore Caratese	10	−6	6
19	Giana Erminio	9	−4	5
20	Renate	9	−6	4