Juventus U23 v Lumezzane prediction · Serie C

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 17:57

Juventus U23 0–0 Lumezzane LUMEZZANE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Lumezzane win~~38%

~~The market said~~28%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.782

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.811

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Lumezzane win at 38%.
1′Much as we predicted: Lumezzane was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 35–27–38
1′KICK-OFF Juventus U23 v Lumezzane
15′🟨 YELLOW · 15' Juventus U23
23′🟨 YELLOW · 23' Lumezzane
28′A red card for Juventus U23 on 28′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–0 · 32–33–34
28′🟥 RED CARD · 28' Juventus U23
32′SUBSTITUTION · 31' Juventus U23 · On: S. Mangiapoco · Off: L. Amaradio
36′🟨 YELLOW · 36' Juventus U23
39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Lumezzane win 32%)
45′HALF-TIME Juventus U23 0–0 Lumezzane
46′SECOND HALF Juventus U23 0–0 Lumezzane
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Juventus U23 · On: A. Durmisi · Off: S. Guerra
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Lumezzane win: 38% at kick-off, 28% now
56′We expected about 2.5 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 25–48–27
58′We said Lumezzane at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 26%. 0–0 · 25–49–26
59′🟨 YELLOW · 58' Lumezzane
62′We said Lumezzane at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 23–53–24
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Juventus U23 · On: F. Leone · Off: P. Mazur
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Lumezzane · On: A. Pavanati · Off: S. D'Agostino
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Lumezzane · On: G. Monachello · Off: T. Ebone
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Lumezzane · On: A. Pavanati · Off: S. D'Agostino
71′We said Lumezzane at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 18–63–19
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Lumezzane win: 38% at kick-off, 18% now
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Lumezzane · On: G. Perina · Off: A. Ghillani
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Lumezzane · On: L. Menegazzo · Off: M. Rocca
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Juventus U23 · On: F. Pagnucco · Off: D. Elimoghale
79′We said Lumezzane at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 0–0 · 12–75–13
81′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Lumezzane
83′We said Lumezzane at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 8–83–9
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Lumezzane win: 38% at kick-off, 7% now
89′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Lumezzane · On: S. Diodato · Off: M. Ndiaye
90′We said Lumezzane at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–92–4
FTFULL TIME Juventus U23 0–0 Lumezzane
FTJuventus U23 0–0 Lumezzane · Lumezzane win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

1

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –

2

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –

3

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –

The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 14:44 · locked at kick-off

Juventus U23 win35%

Draw28%

Lumezzane win38%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 15:00

VenueStadio Giuseppe Moccagatta

Line-ups

Juventus U23

Lumezzane

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Juventus U23

Lumezzane

3Days since last match3

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Lumezzane	8	−1	11
17	Juventus U23	8	−7	6

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Juventus U23

Formation not confirmed

40 R. Radu

34 S. Turco

15 F. Savio

38 C. Corradi

18 M. Brugarello

48 J. Grelaud

11 L. Amaradio

5 F. Macca

24 P. Mazur

14 D. Elimoghale

17 S. Guerra

Coach · Massimo Brambilla

Substitutes

1 · M. Fuscaldo

22 · S. Mangiapoco

44 · A. Montero

2 · N. Rizzo

13 · F. Verde

4 · S. van Aarle

16 · F. Pagnucco

26 · D. Ripani

20 · E. Keutgen

9 · A. Durmisi

21 · A. Merola

27 · F. Leone

Lumezzane

Formation not confirmed

13 L. Andrenacci

15 M. Ndiaye

90 S. J. Nwachukwu

30 A. Boffelli

11 A. Ghillani

19 M. Rolando

5 S. D'Agostino

8 M. Rocca

17 S. Mancini

32 G. Anatriello

9 T. Ebone

Coach · Paolo Sammarco

Substitutes

1 · S. Filigheddu

21 · J. Deratti

42 · D. Baroncioni

6 · N. Gauli

27 · A. Pavanati

16 · C. Ghidini

72 · G. Perina

50 · G. D'Angelo

44 · L. Menegazzo

99 · F. Belvedere

77 · S. Diodato

10 · G. Monachello

12 · M. Busi

Our number · lumezzane winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 14:44 · locked at kick-off

38% The market28%

Us38%

~~Market~~28%

We make Lumezzane a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 28%. We are 9 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · lumezzane win The market, margin stripped

Published at 37%, 38% now. The market has gone from 29% to 28% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Juventus U23 win	35%	45%	−10
Draw	28%	27%	+1
Lumezzane win	38%	28%	+9
Over 2.5 goals	46%	54%	−7
Both teams to score	51%	57%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	72%	76%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	25%	33%	−7
Juventus U23 or draw	62%	72%	−9
Juventus U23 clean sheet	28%	–	–
Lumezzane clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.1%

0123450 8.8 9.8 6.7 2.9 1 9.3 13.1 8.1 3.5 2 6.1 7.7 5.0 2.2 3 2.5 3.2 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Juventus U23 down, Lumezzane across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,041 Serie C - Girone A matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Serie C - Girone A matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.2% of games this season, across 89 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting between these two, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Juventus U23 at home: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Lumezzane away: 1.50 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.24 goals for Juventus U23, 1.30 for Lumezzane. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No meetings between these two in Serie C - Girone A since 2021. Cup ties and meetings in other competitions are not counted here.

Form · last six in Serie C - Girone A

JUVENTUS U23

DLLLDL0–0 · 0–3 · 0–2 · 3–5 · 0–0 · 1–2

LUMEZZANE

LDDWLW1–2 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cittadella	9	+12	24
2	Union Brescia	9	+10	19
3	Ospitaletto	9	+9	18
4	Trento	9	+7	17
5	Arzignano Valchiampo	9	+4	17
6	Desenzano Calvina	9	+1	13
7	Treviso	9	+1	13
8	Albinoleffe	9	+1	12
9	Alcione	9	−1	12
10	Lumezzane	8	−1	11
11	Pergolettese	9	−1	11
12	Dolomiti Bellunesi	9	−2	10
13	Lecco	9	−2	10
14	Novara	9	−4	9
15	PRO Vercelli	9	−5	9
16	Folgore Caratese	9	−4	6
17	Juventus U23	8	−7	6
18	Athletic Carpi	9	−8	6
19	Giana Erminio	9	−4	5
20	Renate	9	−6	4