Giana Erminio v Union Brescia prediction · Serie C

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 22:30

Giana Erminio 2–1 Union Brescia UNION BRESCIA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Union Brescia win~~42%

~~The market said~~57%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.812

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.068

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Union Brescia win at 42%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Union Brescia 42% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 27–32–42
1′KICK-OFF Giana Erminio v Union Brescia
3′A goal for Union Brescia on 2′. 0–0 · 27–32–42
25′GOAL DISALLOWED · 2' A. Spagnoli · Union Brescia
25′🟨 YELLOW · 25' Union Brescia
26′We said Union Brescia at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 1–0 · 63–25–13
26′⚽ GOAL · 26' Giana Erminio 1–0 Union Brescia
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' Union Brescia win: 42% at kick-off, 13% now
26′THE CALL SWINGS · 26' Giana Erminio win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Union Brescia win 38%)
27′Giana Erminio score on 26′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 63–25–12
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 27' Union Brescia win: 42% at kick-off, 12% now
29′27′: S. Comelli on the scoresheet for Giana Erminio, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 63–24–12
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.0 we expected. 1–0 · 64–24–12
40′We said Union Brescia at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 67–24–9
45′SECOND HALF Giana Erminio 1–0 Union Brescia
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Union Brescia · On: V. De Maria · Off: D. Balestrero
48′HALF-TIME Giana Erminio 1–0 Union Brescia
57′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Giana Erminio · On: F. Manzoni · Off: C. Mora
61′We said Union Brescia at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 75–20–4
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Union Brescia · On: D. Di Molfetta · Off: A. Mallamo
67′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Giana Erminio · On: T. Nucifero · Off: F. Renda
67′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Giana Erminio · On: E. Muhameti · Off: M. Zanchetta
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Union Brescia win: 42% at kick-off, 2% now
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Giana Erminio · On: A. Quaggio · Off: S. Comelli
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Giana Erminio · On: A. Piazza · Off: L. Ruffini
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Union Brescia · On: S. Coulibaly · Off: J. Pellegrini
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Union Brescia · On: M. R. Frigerio · Off: B. Boci
79′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Union Brescia
82′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Union Brescia
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Giana Erminio 1–1 Union Brescia
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' Union Brescia win: 42% at kick-off, 6% now
85′THE CALL SWINGS · 85' Draw is now our likeliest result at 89% (was Giana Erminio win 94%)
87′Union Brescia find the net on 86′. 1–1. 1–1 · 4–91–5
88′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Giana Erminio
91′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' Giana Erminio
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+2' Union Brescia win: 42% at kick-off, 2% now
93′3 goals already, more than the 2.0 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 98–2–0
93′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Giana Erminio 2–1 Union Brescia
93′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+3' Giana Erminio win is now our likeliest result at 98% (was Draw 97%)
94′A goal for Giana Erminio on 90′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 99–1–0
96′2–1 at the end. Our 42% on Union Brescia misses, and the record keeps it. 2–1 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Giana Erminio 2–1 Union Brescia
FTGiana Erminio 2–1 Union Brescia · Union Brescia win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Union Brescia are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Giana Erminio 27%, draw 31%, Union Brescia 42%. Over 2.5 goals 33%, both teams to score 40%.

The AI’s read on Giana Erminio v Union BresciaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

Giana Erminio win27%

Draw31%

Union Brescia win42%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 19:30

RoundGirone A · matchday 10

VenueStadio Citta di Gorgonzola

RefereeG. Vingo

Line-ups

Giana Erminio

Union Brescia

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Giana Erminio

Union Brescia

8Days since last match10

Last match: 11 Oct · Serie C - Girone A

Last match: 9 Oct · Serie C - Girone A

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Union Brescia	9	+10	19
19	Giana Erminio	9	−4	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Giana Erminio

Formation not confirmed

22 A. Mazza

19 C. Mora

23 P. Tornaghi

60 E. Rovinelli

24 L. Ruffini

25 M. Zanchetta

7 D. Pinto

11 S. Comelli

10 F. Renda

26 M. Ballabio

8 L. Magazzu

Coach · Mario Tacchinardi

Substitutes

1 · A. Zenti

12 · E. Azzolari

28 · C. Di Bitonto

4 · A. Piazza

13 · M. Golin

27 · F. Manzoni

21 · E. Muhameti

3 · T. Nucifero

6 · N. Saggionetto

9 · A. Quaggio

Union Brescia

Formation not confirmed

43 G. Zacchi

95 S. Sina

28 L. Silvestri

8 D. Balestrero

15 T. Casasola

14 A. Mallamo

6 A. Mercati

25 A. Rizzo Pinna

24 B. Boci

91 A. Spagnoli

30 J. Pellegrini

Coach · Eugenio Corini

Substitutes

1 · L. Liverani

66 · S. Gori

4 · F. Sorensen

5 · N. Pasini

3 · A. Rizzo

18 · V. De Maria

27 · A. Lamesta

26 · M. R. Frigerio

82 · L. Armati

7 · D. Di Molfetta

93 · S. Coulibaly

Our number · union brescia winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

42% The market57%

Us42%

~~Market~~57%

We make Union Brescia a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 57%. We are 15 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Giana Erminio v Union Brescia~~0.86 – 1.16

~~Form · last six in Serie C - Girone A this season · since 13 Sept~~W0 D5 L1 · W2 D4 L0

~~Table places · points 5 v 19~~19 v 2

~~The market · Union Brescia win~~57% · ours 42%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Union Brescia win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 57% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Giana Erminio win	27%	18%	+9
Draw	31%	25%	+6
Union Brescia win	42%	57%	−15
Over 2.5 goals	33%	49%	−16
Both teams to score	40%	49%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	60%	72%	−12
Over 3.5 goals	15%	28%	−13
Giana Erminio or draw	58%	43%	+15
Giana Erminio clean sheet	32%	–	–
Union Brescia clean sheet	42%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 14.7%

0123450 14.1 14.7 8.9 3.5 1 10.8 13.7 7.6 3.0 2 4.9 5.6 3.3 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Giana Erminio down, Union Brescia across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,048 Serie C - Girone A matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Serie C - Girone A matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.0% of games this season, across 96 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 3.67 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Giana Erminio at home: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Union Brescia away: 1.33 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.86 goals for Giana Erminio, 1.16 for Union Brescia. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~3.67

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~UNI 5–2 GIA · GIA 0–2 UNI · UNI 2–0 GIA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Serie C - Girone A this season · since 13 Sept

GIANA ERMINIO

LDDDDD0–1 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 2–2

UNION BRESCIA

DDWDDW0–0 · 2–2 · 4–0 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cittadella	9	+12	24
2	Union Brescia	9	+10	19
3	Ospitaletto	10	+8	18
4	Arzignano Valchiampo	9	+4	17
5	Trento	9	+7	17
6	Treviso	10	+3	16
7	Alcione	10	+2	15
8	Pergolettese	10	0	14
9	Albinoleffe	10	+1	13
10	Lecco	10	+3	13
11	Desenzano Calvina	10	−2	13
12	Lumezzane	10	−3	12
13	Novara	10	−4	10
14	Dolomiti Bellunesi	9	−2	10
15	Athletic Carpi	10	−6	9
16	PRO Vercelli	10	−10	9
17	Juventus U23	9	−7	7
18	Folgore Caratese	10	−6	6
19	Giana Erminio	9	−4	5
20	Renate	9	−6	4